Missouri Governor Jay Nixon continues to look like an overwhelming favorite for reelection. He leads announced opponents Bill Randles and Dave Spence by margins of 18 and 20 points at 47-29 and 47-27 respectively. And he also has a 48-30 advantage over prospective opponent Tom Schweich.
Nixon has two big things going for him. The first is his own crossover appeal. Nixon's overall approval rating of 44% with 31% of voters disapproving of him doesn't sound that impressive on the surface. But that's just because he has lower than normal numbers with his party base, as only 54% of Democrats approve of him to 25% who disapprove. But he more than makes up for that with a solid +15 approval spread with independents (44/29) and because he almost breaks even with Republicans at 34% approving and 40% disapproving of him. It's very rare for a Governor to be that strong across party lines.
The other reason Nixon's doing well is that he simply doesn't have very strong opposition. Randles has 25% name recognition and Spence is known to only 21% of voters. Even Schweich, generally thought of as someone who would be a stronger and better known candidate, has just 28% name recognition. Nixon would be a formidable foe for Republicans under any circumstances, but the lack of a strong GOP candidate make the road even tougher.
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Jay, I doubt you will remember me but I certainly remember you, when your father was in the law firm with John Howell at Hillsboro, and when you and I had a short talk one afternoon on your way into his office from school.
He was so proud of you.
While I normally vote for a Republican I voted for you because I knew your father and the kind of guy he was.
Back then your father and John Howell had me do a lot of appraisal work for them, especially when I-55 went through Jefferson County.
Over all, I think you have done an excellent job as governor and I hope you get re-elected but I am afraid it may be difficult with the direction Obama and his policies are going.
Earl Blackwell tried to get me to run for representative from Jeff County, but I decided I liked real estate better and right now, I am glad I am not in the election cycle for any election.
While I know it is difficult to separate yourself from Obama and his policies, and so far you have done very well of doing this, I hope you can find some way to denounce his policies without hurting yourself.
I just wanted to let you know there are many of us out here that support you but we are so afraid Obama will take you down with himself, or at least make it more difficult to get elected.
Here in Nixa, I understand there are about 400 homes, that have either been foreclosed on, or is getting close. Some of the Realtors tell me over 40% of the homes or under water for value and it is getting worse.
The value of my own home has dropped over 40% and still dropping with a value of about what I paid for it 16 years ago.
On the positive side for you, I do think you will carry Christian County for Governor, although Christian County is mostly Republican.
I know much of this is way beyond your control and you have done an excellent job of pulling people from both parties.
I am sure you know more about getting elected than I do but wanted you to know there is much support for you.
I do work for almost 100 of the Table Rock Lake Resorts. They had a bad year last year, due to flooding, and this year is starting off slower than last year.
I do hope your staff will forward this on to you.
I wish you a very good upcoming election.
Clyde Brinley
Posted by: Clyde Brinley | February 25, 2012 at 12:17 PM