Brown up 11 on Mandel

Sherrod Brown continues to look like a strong favorite for reelection to the Senate from Ohio, leading Republican challenger Josh Mandel 47-36. The race has tightened a little bit though since PPP's last poll, which found Brown leading by a 49-34 spread.

Brown's approval numbers aren't earth shattering- 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 34% who disapprove. The worst news for him is that independents split against him by a 37/44 margin. But at the same time 20% of Republicans think he's doing a good job and that's an unusual amount of crossover supprt in this climate.

Mandel's name recognition is on the rise.  When we last polled Ohio in early November just 33% of voters were familiar with him and that's now up to 39%. The problem for Mandel is that while the share of voters seeing him favorably- 14%- has stayed in place, the percentage with an unfavorable opinion has risen from 19% to 25%. Voters aren't warming up to him as they get to know him better.

There are a couple key crosstabs to note in the head to head numbers. Brown leads Mandel 45-39 with white voters. If a Democratic candidate in Ohio can even break even with white voters they're assured of an easy victory. Also despite Brown's upside down approval numbers with independents, he still leads Mandel by a 40-36 spread with them. And he's winning over 12% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats.

An incumbent with an approval rating in the lows 40s is never totally out of the woods but this continues to look like a decidedly second tier pick up opportunity for the GOP.

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[fDavid]

Go Scott Brown