Big Day for Santorum?

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Santorum's personal popularity is the main reason for his sudden reemergence as a relevant player in the GOP race.  In all 3 of these states his favorability is over 70%- 74/17 in Minnesota, 72/17 in Missouri, and 71/19 in Colorado. He's far better liked than his main opponents- Romney's favorability is 47-60% in those states and Gingrich's is 47-48%. While Romney and Gingrich have hammered each other in recents weeks Santorum's been largely left alone and he's benefiting from that now.

There are three groups Santorum's winning in all three of these states: Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Those were groups that had previously been in Gingrich's column, but it appears right leaning Republican voters are shifting toward Santorum as their primary alternative to Romney. If Santorum does pick up 2 wins and a 2nd place finish tomorrow that trend is likely to be accelerated.

The race in these three states is unusually volatile. 38% of voters in Missouri, 35% in Minnesota, and 31% in Colorado say that they're still open to changing their votes. If there's a good piece of news for Romney in this polling it's that his supporters are more firmly committed than Santorum's in all three states. He has a firmer base of support he can rely on to show up for him tomorrow than Santorum does.

Tuesday has the potential to be the most significant day in the Republican race yet.

Full results here

Comments

[latinos_for_ron_paul]

Whereas Neo-Cons are just Fascists - Barry disgraces the egalitarian legacy of Dr. King. Wall Street's counterfeiters own the Chickenhawks, from the Trailer-trash Twins to the syndicate of Prescott Bush.

Which is why the "loyal 20%" will deny any (R) Neo-Con the margin of victory. And why an Independent candidacy’s only a wild card. Existentialism’s a b!tch.

[mike g]

Republicans should be ashamed of themselves. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum are all big spending, big government conservatives. If they actually though the debt and spending were a serious problem then Ron Paul would be the only choice. Instead they do just as the banking establishment wants then to do. Choose between 3 puppets. Nothing but white Obamas.

[bladeless fan]

You couldnt be more on the level..

[Woodheat]

In nearly all of the races so far the 'combination' conservative non-Romney vote beats Romney every time.
Conservatives need to wake up - choose a candidate and win this one for a conservative non-establishment candidate!

[Raymond]

Can we infer that in your 2nd day of MN polling it was Newt 22%, Romney 21%, and Paul 21%?

It would be interesting to see Newt and Romney finish in the 3 and 4 slot.

[EricDBarry]

I have little faith that the Evangelical mob will do more that support the candidate most eager to kill heathens world wide.

[claire]

Big goof again in Colorado polling...