PPP finds that a match up between Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson for the Senate in Wisconsin would be a toss up. Baldwin leads Thompson 46-45 in this month's poll, continuing a pattern of tight numbers in the contest. When PPP last polled Wisconsin in October Thompson was ahead 46-44. This seems like a race that's likely to remain closely contested all throughout the year.
There are no overwhelmingly popular candidates in this race. Thompson's favorability rating is 41%, with 42% of voters seeing him unfavorably. He's popular with Republicans but his crossover appeal is not what it once was. Only 17% of Democrats see him positively and his 41/42 spread with independents matches his overall numbers. Those aren't the kinds of numbers that let him win 60% in his last race for Governor.
Voters are mixed on Baldwin as well, although she is not as well known. 31% see her favorably and 31% have a negative opinion. She is extremely polarizing with Democrats (54/10) pretty much all liking her and Republicans (3/57) all pretty much disliking her.
You see that same level of polarization in the head to head numbers between Baldwin and Thompson. Baldwin gets 87% of the Democratic vote, while Thompson gets 88% of the Republican vote. Thompson does have more crossover support, winning 9% of Democrats to Baldwin's 2% of Republicans.
Baldwin would be a nominal favorite against either of the other Republican Senate candidates. She leads Mark Neumann 47-41 and Jeff Fitzgerald 47-39. Neither Neumann (23/34) not Fitzgerald (19/38) has very good favorability ratings.
Thompson remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination. He's at 39% with Fitzgerald and Neumann both polling at 22%.
The race would be a lot closer if someone dropped out. Thompson leads Neumann 46-36 and Fitzgerald 46-37 in head to head contests. Thompson has a significant name recognition advantage, with 83% of voters familiar with him to 61% for Neumann and 54% for Fitzgerald. Among voters who've heard of Neumann, whether their opinion is positive or negative, he leads Thompson 48-41. Among voters familiar with Fitzgerald he leads Thompson 51-40.
The story on the primary is simple: three person field and Thompson's in pretty good shape. 2 person field and he could be in a lot of trouble.
Full results here