Trouble ahead for Romney?

Mitt Romney's headed for a big victory in Florida today but new PPP polls in Missouri and Ohio find the road ahead might be a little bit tougher for him, especially if Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum drops out of the race and leaves a single conservative alternative.

Rick Santorum is leading the way for next week's 'beauty contest' primary in Missouri with 45% to 34% for Romney, and 13% for Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot for that, but he will be in the picture for Missouri's caucus and leads the way for that with 30% to 28% for Santorum, 24% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.

In Ohio Gingrich is at 26% to 25% for Romney, 22% for Santorum, and 11% for Paul.

What might be most interesting in both states is what happens in a head to head between Romney and either Gingrich or Santorum:

-In Missouri Santorum leads Romney 50-37 and in Ohio Santorum leads 45-38.

-In Missouri Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 and in Ohio Gingrich leads 42-39.

Two takeaways from those numbers: if this ever came down to Romney, Paul, and just one out of Gingrich and Santorum, Romney would be in a lot of trouble. And he'd be in more trouble if the single conservative alternative ended up being Santorum.

Santorum is a stronger long term threat to Romney than Gingrich because he has less baggage and is simply much better liked. Santorum is easily the most popular of the Republican candidates in both Missouri (+42 favorability at 63/21, compared to +20 for Gingrich and +10 for Romney) and Ohio (+35 at 59/24 compared to +10 for both Gingrich and Romney). It's just proving hard for Santorum to get much traction while Gingrich is still in the race.

One thing that's important to note in both Ohio and Missouri is that fewer than half of voters are strongly committed to their current choice, meaning that things could shift a lot between now and the time those states actually vote. It may be that once Romney comes into those states his spending advantage just blows the other candidates out of the water the way it has in Florida.

At the same time though it's clear that Republicans in these states simply aren't that enthusiastic about their likely nominee.  His favorability is under 50 in both states at 46/36 in Missouri and 47/37 in Ohio. He still has work to do with large segments of the party base.

Romney should score a big victory tonight. But that doesn't mean it's totally over.

Full results here

Comments

[Jason Paul]

Are you going to track MO after Florida. I would think for race to continue Santorum needs to beat Romney in Missouri, and whether a Florida bounce is enough for Romney to win Missouri.
MN and CO are obviously hard to poll. This is not.

[George]

I am eager to find out if the dynamics change after the Florida primary.

[Surfcitysocal]

Thank goodness for the heartland...which may save the coasts from themselves, hopefully.

[Justin]

PPP, 39% does not equal 47%. If your Florida numbers are any indication, then I should add 8% to Romney's current totals in these polls.

[Jay]

Since you polled last night in Florida, how is it that you were so far off in your final numbers. Please explain. Thank you.

[Obama 2012]

I would love to see this happen (one on one with Romney vs Gingrich or Santorum) but now they both seem to have enough to continue for... plus if Santorum is playing for VP he may be sticking around just as a favor to Romney... hmmmmmmmmm

[joe123]

2 responses to the first 2 comments by Jay and Justin.
Jay--PPP was more accurate than most on the other states, and others yesterday saw a gingrinch narrowing as well. the RCP average ended up being about right. True, PPP was off by a wider margin than others, but some had romney up by 20. I would be interested to see WHERE and WHO PPPand the other polled. But especially for a Dem polling company, PPP is one of the better historically. I think they at least make an honest attempt most of the time, more than most others with the exception of Rasmussen, who I trust a little more than PPP.
Justin--your logic is well, illogical. sooooo, b/c obama won in 2008 by +6, we should add that +6 to other polls based on his win there? You know, whether youre a romney shill, a newt shill, or republican shill, or a dem shill, its stupidity like this that leads to skews polls. its the same thinking for trying to cookie cutter polling across america based on false premises that since dems number more than repubs nationwide, we need to poll more dems than repubs everywhere. Quit being a koolaid drinker and look at reality. The reality is exactly what this article shows by FACTS (ie, hard data in the polling) that Santorum is the more challenging for romney than newt (his favorables are higher, and he doesnt carry the bombastic mistake-prone style nor the baggage, and has been the only one to challenge mitt successfully thus far). now think about it--both newt and mitt have splintered the base so much that if either wins, many supporters of the other will stay home or vote 3rd party (just ask yourself personally if you could easily get behind newt at this time--doubtful, even though you might eventually do it, but there's still a huge question right?--and without a secure base, winning a general is next to impossible. But both newt and mitt supporters generally like santorum and would consider voting for him before each other. its easy simple math. santorum is the best of the 3 when it comes down it in terms of securing the base united and hence, taking on obama. santorum's favorables among indepnds, despite many who view his conserv social ideas as detriment (i actually dont think all of it is, as many issues are in line with the American people, such as a majority being pro life now and not redefining marriage, and besides its the economy stupid, right?) and women are positive, appealing to reagan dems and indepnds with his blue collar emphasis, especially for manufacturing. Santorum by any reasonable measure, it romney's worst matchup and by extension of uniting the party, also obama's worst matchup. so dont get stuck on stupid stuff like that silly +8 thing you said, which makes no sense.