PPP's first general election poll anywhere since Rick Santorum's surge in Iowa finds that he's the most electable of the Republican candidates in the important swing state of North Carolina. Santorum fights Obama to a 46-46 tie in the state, while Mitt Romney trails Obama 46-45. It's not a significant difference, but Romney has tended to best the rest of the GOP field by a wide margin on the electability front in our polling.
The reason Santorum does ever so slightly better is that he takes 20% of the Democratic vote to Romney's 17%. That's an interesting finding and what it suggests to me is that socially conservative Democrats might be more inclined to vote for Santorum than Romney because he provides a clearer contrast with Obama on social issues.
The difference between Santorum and Romney isn't that consequential. The main thing these numbers tell us is that North Carolina remains closely divided as 2012 gets under way. Obama's approval rating in the state is 47% with 49% of voters disapproving. Those figures are better than his numbers nationally, and they represent his best numbers in the state since last June. It continues to look like North Carolina will be a battleground state and as a PPP analysis last week showed it could even prove to be the decisive state in the election this fall.
In addition to looking at a straight head to head between Obama and Romney, PPP also tested a three way contest with the two of them and Gary Johnson running as a Libertarian. In that scenario Obama's lead over Romney expands to 4 points at 45-41, with Johnson taking 8% of the vote. Johnson takes 9% of the Republican vote compared to only 4% of Democrats and his presence results in Romney's advantage with independents being cut in half from 20 points to only 10.
I doubt Gary Johnson will end up getting 8% of the vote in North Carolina come this fall. But the numbers do show that Republican voters are more likely to seek out a third party option than Democrats are, and that could really make a difference in a closely divided state whose outcome doesn't seem likely to be decided by more than 2 or 3 points either way.
The likelihood of anyone other than Romney being the Republican nominee seems increasingly small, but for what it's worth Obama leads the rest of the field by healthy margins: 47-41 over Ron Paul, 49-43 over Newt Gingrich, and 49-41 over Rick Perry.
Full results here
Interesting results. Any incumbent under 50 has always a lot of problems. Are you going to be polling Florida horse race between Obama and the GOP after the primary?
Posted by: George | January 11, 2012 at 11:29 AM
It's about JOBS!!And, his excellent foreign policy experience & views. He is "spot on" to strategically plan for peace!
Posted by: USElection_2012 | January 11, 2012 at 04:11 PM
I'll be voting for Gary Johnson because he is what this country needs right now. http://mootsagootsa.com
Posted by: mootsagootsa | January 11, 2012 at 07:36 PM
Gary Johnson will get a lot more than 8%. Why vote for Obama when Johnson could give you real change. Johnson is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. The best of both worlds.
Posted by: MootsaGootsa | January 14, 2012 at 11:04 PM