Romney up in Florida

PPP finds the same thing in its newest Florida poll that all surveys of the state have found in the last few days: strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and toward Mitt Romney.  Romney now leads with 40% to 32% for Gingrich, 15% for Rick Santorum, and 9% for Ron Paul. Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday.

It's clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10 (50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he's at +33 (64/31).

Santorum is actually the most well liked candidate among Florida voters with 65% seeing him favorably to 24% with a negative opinion.  In Iowa Santorum's persistently high favorability ratings were a precursor to his late surge.  But as popular as he is, he's only gone from 13% to 15% support in the last week.  It seems unlikely that he'll be able to break into the top two.

The backbone of Romney's support in Florida is senior citizens.  He's getting 50% of their voters with Gingrich at only 28%. Romney also appears to have a pretty good sized lead in the bank. Among those who have already voted he's at 45% to 35% for Gingrich.

If you want a clue as to why Romney releasing his tax returns hasn't hurt him one little bit in Florida consider this: 68% of Republicans in the state have a favorable opinion of rich people to only 8% with a negative one. Romney's up 47-32 among those who like rich people. Here's a simple reality: in a GOP primary it's an asset to be rich and successful, not a liability. Attacks on Romney along those lines just aren't going to be effective with Republican voters. Additionally only 14% of voters have 'major concerns' about Romney's overseas bank accounts, while 56% have none at all.

3 other notes:

-56% of likely voters said they watched Thursday night's debate, and they support Romney 41-35. This is a major departure from what we've found in past polling among debate watchers, who tended to favor Gingrich by large margins. These numbers confirm the conventional wisdom that Thursday night was a rough one for Newt.

-Voters in South Carolina who were most concerned about electability voted for Newt, and our first post-South Carolina Florida poll showed equal numbers of voters seeing Gingrich and Romney as the candidate with the best chance of defeating Barack Obama.  Those numbers have shifted in a major way over the last five days with 50% now seeing Romney as most electable to only 23% for Gingrich. Whether it's the attacks on Newt or a slew of polls released this week that showed Romney's competitive in Florida and Gingrich is not, he lost a lot of ground on that front.

-Finally Newt's most publicized proposal of the week is getting panned by Florida voters- only22% support a colony on the Moon while 52% are opposed. Even among Gingrich's own supporters only 34% favor it. I doubt this issue really has much to do with Newt's collapse in Florida but I don't think it's helping him either.

Full results here

Comments

[Lynn Otting]

Independents will not vote for someone who made millions at the expense of bankrupting and closing small town manufacturing companies. It may not be an issue to Republicans in Florida, but electability should be the number one issue. These polls can not possibly reflect the views of Americans who are frustrated with not having a job and the ones who are angry with having no extra money if they do. Romney is exactly who O'bama wants to run against. He is the perfect candidate for his tax the elite one percent campaign. Hispanics will vote for President O'bama because he will be able to expose the Romney who will say and do anything for a vote even if he doesn't really believe in it. Perhaps the RNC should worry about losing some of those dedicated bible belt southern states that will go blue in November. As sad or mean as it may seem, half of the evangelical conservatives will not vote or vote for O'bama, the lesser of the two evils.

[Silvia Marquis]

Dear Sir You are NOT helping yourself when you stand with a scumbag like Mitt Romney who enriches himself at the expense and suffering of others.

Mitt Romney could have logically been on Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential (VP) Short list in 2008 presidential run if Mitt Romney did not flip-flop from the views he held in MA.Mitt Romney is a chameleon and lacks a moral compass. Anything goes to make a dollar is NOT Capitalism. Under your strict definition drug dealers are Capitalists like Mitt Romney.The drug dealer or corporate raider are both wrong. Newt Gingrich has a right and obligation to attack these forms of Capitalism. The business venture was three separate parameters is it moral, ethical, or legal. The drug dealer is immoral and illegal. Mitt Romney is immoral and unethical. Mitt Romney is not and NEVER was in business to create jobs Mitt Romney will never be president........................ Many on the CHRISTIAN right have become Pro-life Democrats because of anything goes and band wagoner Republicans, Sir. PS Mitt Romney will NOT pick Portman for VP............... remember Mitt Romney is a consummate liar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-aeD1HXjaY

[Bazinga !]

Hi

I have a question: When will you start screening for "likely voters" instead of "registered voters" in your general election polls ?

Thanks

[Tess]

I have no idea who you people are, but Florida is not releasing early voting figures.

If they have, and I am forwarding your article to the authorities, then Florida's votes will not be counted on a National basis.

You have no influence over Floridians. We are not stupid and putting out false information is only a bad reflection on you.

[Richard Rainey]

It is not surprising, or not expected. I know Rick Santorum, is a sinner, like me, that values a "Right relationship with Our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ." The fact that He is under adverse circumstances, because of the illness of His precious daughter Bella. I am a conservative Christian, who knows integrity, when I see it. The media has done it's best to keep a good man down. I think that the Media has over looked one thing. God is God and we (I) are not. It is time to stand as good Christians to see the problems, reflect the solution, and in our limited ability, bring Glory to God. There are no limitations to what God can do. That is why my hope is in Christ, and my choice is Rick.

[Serge Riddell]

What's the margin of error for this poll?

[Dustin Ingalls]

Bazinga: In August or early September.

Tess: If you read the full results, you'll see we asked people if they'd already voted or not.

Serge: Read the full results.

[Dyann Jaxon]

A true swing state, Florida, with its 29 delegates to the Electoral College, is considered essential to win the general election. Barack Obama won the state in 2008.

The very beginning of the 2012 primary calendar is also supposed to be reserved for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Florida's decision to get in on the early primary action follows a similar move in 2008, and a similar punishment by the RNC. This RNC Swing State has jeopardized the Republican Primary by "punishing" it's own party, AGAIN! IF Obahammed doesn't win this state because of it, we MUST credit G-d with that win.

Florida is expected to lose half its 99 delegates as a result of its decision to hold the Republican presidential primary on Jan. 31.

Under RNC rules, Florida was not supposed to hold what's known as a "winner-take-all" primary before April. That's a primary in which all the state's delegates are awarded to the winner, as opposed to one in which the delegates are awarded proportionally.

I find all these "RULES" deeply disturbing, highly suspect, DISINGENUOUS, and a reflection of the Organized Criminal actions that CONGRESS delights in tweeking the Constitutio with. This is why we are ALL trying to get ALL LIFEtime Politicians OUT of our Government!