Polls

Romney maintains Florida lead in final night

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s tracking of the Florida Republican primary wraps up with Mitt Romney at 39%, Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 15%, and Ron Paul at 11%. Our three days of tracking found very little movement in the race: Romney was at 39-40% every day, Gingrich was at 31-32% every day, Santorum was at 14-15% every day, and Paul was at 9-11% every day.

One thing Romney did a great job of was getting his voters out early.  With the third of the electorate who have already cast their ballots he leads 45-32.  That means Gingrich would have to win election day voters by somewhere in the 6-8 point range to pull off the Florida upset, but we find that Romney still has a 36-30 advantage with those are waiting to vote tomorrow.

Romney will win in Florida tomorrow because he’s winning his core groups of support by wide margins, while holding Gingrich to single digit advantages with his key constituencies. Romney is winning moderates by 39 (53-14), seniors by 12 (46-32), and women by 12 (42-30). Meanwhile Gingrich is only up 8 with Tea Partiers (39-31) and 6 with Evangelicals (38-32), groups he won by huge margins in South Carolina.

The hubbub over Romney’s tax returns early last week may have enhanced his chances in the state. We find that 66% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of ‘rich people’ to only 8% with a negative opinion of them. All the awareness of how rich Romney is may have sent Florida Republicans a message that Romney is someone who knows what he’s doing. Gingrich erred with his proposal last week for a ‘moon colony.’ Only 21% of voters support his idea while 53% are opposed.

“At the end of the day in Florida we’re right back where we started,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Romney was always seen as a solid favorite in the state and for all the twists and turns over the last six months it looks like he’ll win a good sized victory tomorrow just as was expected all along.”

PPP surveyed 1,087 likely Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 31%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 15%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%

Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 81%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 19%

Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 26%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate were Adam
Hasner, George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV,
Mike McCalister, and Craig Miller, who would
you vote for?
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 3%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 8%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 39%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 4%
Craig Miller……………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 42%

Q10 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 25%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 15%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of rich people?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q12 Would you support or oppose establishing a
colony on the Moon?
Support ………………………………………………….. 21%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q14 How concerned are you that Mitt Romney
keeps some of his wealth overseas, including
holdings in the Cayman Islands and a recently
closed Swiss bank account?
Major concerns ……………………………………….. 16%
Some concerns……………………………………….. 15%
No concerns at all ……………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 16%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%

Q18 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q19 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are ………………………………………………………… 40%
Are not …………………………………………………… 60%

Q20 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 68%

Q21 If you are of Cuban heritage, press 1. If you are
Hispanic but not of Cuban heritage, press 2. If
white, press 3. If other, press 4.
Cuban …………………………………………………… 5%
Hispanic non Cuban…………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q22 Did you watch the debate on Thursday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 56%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%

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