Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire. PPP's final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.
Romney's support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP's three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He's the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters...85% of them say they're definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.
The excitement in New Hampshire on Tuesday night will probably be the battle for second place. There Huntsman has the momentum. His support is up from 12% to 16%, while Paul's has declined from 21% to 18% over the last week and a half. Huntsman's favorability (55/30) is far better than Paul's (43/51) and 13% of voters list Huntsman as their 2nd choice compared to only 5% for Paul.
All of these same arguments for Huntsman potentially overtaking Paul could have been applied to Santorum overtaking Paul on our Iowa poll last weekend and of course that's what did happen when it was finally time to count the votes.
Even if Huntsman does pull the second place finish though it's hard to see that translating into much success further down the line. Among actual Republican voters Huntsman finds himself in 5th place at just 11%. But 40% or more of the electorate on Tuesday will be non-Republican and Huntsman's greatest strength is with Obama voters, among whom he gets 35% to 25% for Paul and 19% for Romney. The problem for him is there won't likely be another primary where 25% of the voters chose Obama in 2008.
Beyond the battle for second it looks like the only other intrigue on Tuesday night will be who finishes fourth, which is presently close between Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich has stopped the bleeding in New Hampshire over the last week and a half, dropping only from 13% to 12%. Santorum though is actually the biggest gainer relative to a week ago, up 8 points from his previous 3% standing.
If you think momentum is a major factor Huntsman probably bests Paul for 2nd and Santorum probably beats out Gingrich for 4th.
Full results here
I would like to see Huntsman do well in NH because I think it could hurt Romney moving forward... it seems if he pulls any support from the other candidates - it will be from Romney.
That said; it's hard to see Huntsman continuing on too much longer... he doesn't seem the type to stick around once it's over for him.
~~~
The most interesting news I've read today is that Newt's billionaire friend is paying for $5 million worth of anti-Romney ads in South Carolina. Can Newt get his revenge? Can the negative ads work as well against Romney as they did against Newt?
Probably not... but maybe.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | January 08, 2012 at 10:45 PM
I call BS on this poll. There are no signs anywhere that Ron Paul is losing support in New Hampshire. None! Thirty state lawmakers in New Hampshire have endorsed Ron Paul! Just fifteen have endorsed Romney! There is no way Paul is getting less than 20% of the vote in New Hampshire...NO WAY!
Posted by: Thomas | January 08, 2012 at 10:54 PM
Its hard to see Mitt losing South Carolina after winning Iowa and New Hampshire. Momentum will be on his side and it certainly helps to have the backing of the state's governor.
Posted by: Sean | January 08, 2012 at 10:55 PM
Be careful what you wish for-Obama 2012. I think Gingrich is just an awful a bitter, egotistical man but in some ways is the mirror image of the President on the right side of the spectrum. He might overtake Obama if things are bad enough in November. I would far prefer Romney as the Republican nominee as he is the best Republican in the field. We should always want the best candidates from both parties running because you never know what is going to happen and it's our country we are talking about-not a political game. Gingrich is going to substitute for the Obama campaign in SC. It's not going to be pretty.
Posted by: Jay | January 08, 2012 at 11:03 PM
Huntsman doing well in New Hampshire does nothing to take Romney down. It's too late. Huntsman will not win, and he actually is taking votes away from Ron Paul. They both appeal to independents, but Paul has more support among Republicans.
Huntsman may seem more "reasonable" than Paul, but Huntsman coming in second sends NO message to the Republican Party (or the Democratic Party for that matter), and has no effect on the final outcome of the race. This pollster even states that Huntsman has no future this year beyond New Hampshire.
That's why anti-war Democrats upset with Obama, and independents upset with Washington in general, should vote for Ron Paul, despite their distaste for his seemingly more extreme views on the Fed and economic policy, and the newsletter controversy.
Ron Paul has the money and the support to compete in every state, and has a good chance of securing enough delegates to make a difference at the Republican convention, if Romney ends up winning (which is highly likely).
Paul coming in a strong second sends a message that people are fed up with Washington and politics as usual. Huntsman finishing strong in one state and then doing poorly in South Carolina and probably Florida, and not competing in a number of other states because he didn't get on the ballot, is just a wasted vote. Paul has qualified for every ballot and will stay in until the convention.
Huntsman from Day One has seemed to be practicing for 2016, and has not inspired. In the debates, he totally lacks charisma and does not stand out, even if his views make sense. It's not his year, and it may never be, if he doesn't get a less wimpy demeanor.
Posted by: TycheSD | January 08, 2012 at 11:08 PM
Why are there no day by day splits? There were two debates in between Saturday and Sunday, so a lot could have changed, particularly in regards to Paul vs Huntsman, and Santorum vs Gingrich.
Posted by: Ru Paul 2012 | January 08, 2012 at 11:23 PM
Huntsman doing well in New Hampshire does nothing to take Romney down. It's too late. Huntsman will not win, and he actually is taking votes away from Ron Paul. They both appeal to independents, but Paul has more support among Republicans.
Huntsman may seem more "reasonable" than Paul, but Huntsman coming in second sends NO message to the Republican Party (or the Democratic Party for that matter), and has no effect on the final outcome of the race. This pollster even states that Huntsman has no future this year beyond New Hampshire.
That's why anti-war Democrats upset with Obama, and independents upset with Washington in general, should vote for Ron Paul, despite their distaste for his seemingly more extreme views on the Fed and economic policy, and the newsletter controversy.
Ron Paul has the money and the support to compete in every state, and has a good chance of securing enough delegates to make a difference at the Republican convention, if Romney ends up winning (which is highly likely).
Paul coming in a strong second sends a message that people are fed up with Washington and politics as usual. Huntsman finishing strong in one state and then doing poorly in South Carolina and probably Florida, and not competing in a number of other states because he didn't get on the ballot, is just a wasted vote. Paul has qualified for every ballot and will stay in until the convention.
Huntsman from Day One has seemed to be practicing for 2016, and has not inspired. In the debates, he totally lacks charisma and does not stand out, even if his views make sense. It's not his year, and it may never be, if he doesn't get a less wimpy demeanor.
Posted by: TycheSD | January 08, 2012 at 11:24 PM
I hereby predict that Ron Paul will get 25% with a solid showing after his roundhouse kicks to Gingrich and Santorum in the debates.
Either way, Ron will last all the way to the convention, changing minds and kickin' az.
Posted by: Robert Timsah | January 09, 2012 at 12:49 AM
Glad I'm not a narrow minded idealogue but just a plain simple Republican who wants smaller government, strong defense, and to lower the debt. All those social cons think they can legislate their views but doesn't work. Its a homogenous country and we have to live with one another, like it or not.
Posted by: Judith | January 09, 2012 at 01:06 AM
PS BTW, that ad that got to Unca Nootie was mostly truthful; Mitt has one wife and three houses and Nootie has had three wives and one house. But his baggage is Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae; being centured in the House; lovefest with Madame Paluti and being a bomb thrower on a lot of issues. What a petulant gas bag.
Posted by: Judith | January 09, 2012 at 01:10 AM
Newt and huntsman breathe stink every time they open their mouth and whine.
Posted by: Abc123 | January 09, 2012 at 06:16 AM
Starting to look like Huntsman/Paul battle for 2nd, Santorum/Gingrich battle for 4th, and Roemer/Perry battle for 6th. I'm hoping Roemer beats Perry if for no other reason than I think it was unfair that Perry got to debate in NH this weekend even though he was polling same as Roemer, who has gotten virtually no media attention. Bigger question though is how Santorum or Gingrich finish (one of them will probably finish 5th) will affect perceptions for SC, where they are both currently in the running with Romney for top 3.
Posted by: santorumforums | January 09, 2012 at 07:05 AM
Dear Tom,
With all due respect, this article is poorly written. Have you ever studied punctuation?
There are too many young writers nowadays who grew up interacting via social media and who write news pieces as if they're Tweets.
You really need to hone your skills. You should read "The Elements of Style" by Strunk and White.
Posted by: Literatus | January 09, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Go Buddy, Go!
Posted by: Suedehead | January 09, 2012 at 12:57 PM
They will put Huntsman ahead of Ron Paul and try to build off of what happened in Iowa. They are making it look like he's not really a contender. Even if you don't like the man, America should be pissed over the corruption!
Posted by: JebSimmons | January 09, 2012 at 02:18 PM
66% in the poll were 46 years old or older! Only 10% wer between 18-29 years old!
I don't buy this for a second. Ron Paul: 25% at least!
Posted by: GoldenFreedom2012 | January 09, 2012 at 03:45 PM
i think all of them are a bunch of yahooss...i did sum research about romney bein at bain capital and i was stunt when i saw that he let those companies go down just to make a profit of millions so he is the one that handed down pink slips,i saw the comments of newt gingrich and he made millions with fannie and freddie and i saw the comments of rick santorum and let me tell you none of them cant get it right.im sorry to say but this is gonna be a win for obama...yes the president made sum bad decisions all presidents do!!! but i saw all the job growths on private sector and public and they all going up and not down unemployment is going down and small bussinness are getting into the mix.im a bussinness owner and i tell you that im doing way better now that i was doing before.i hired 20 employees and everything is looking great..yes bush left me in the dust and he is a republican and i voted for him but he screw me big time...i think we need to think very hard if we want a republican in office..and this time im considering my options...god bless usa
Posted by: joel | January 10, 2012 at 09:48 AM
DO WE REALLY NEED ANOTHER TEXAN FOR PRESIDENT LOOK AT THE TRACK RECORD, I FEEL IM BEING FORCED TO CHANGE PARTIES
CAUSE THERES NO ONE ELSE TO VOTE FOR ON THE DEMO SIDE.
I WISH HILARY CLINTON WAS RUNNING,
Posted by: JUDY C | January 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM
Ha-Ha! Guess you are just like the rest of the media trying to dismiss Ron Paul. And, more important, you were wrong to doubt the power of freedom - an idea whose time has come. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmoQrymIEAk&feature=player_embedded
Posted by: Nom Deguerre | January 10, 2012 at 11:07 PM
that blsacilay Romney and Huntsman are the only serious left, and their endorsing of the one who could only help the non-serious candidates win SC, and encourage this not-Romney crap in media and just make the primary longer and dirtier, that should make them embarrassed.
Posted by: Hari | February 25, 2012 at 08:02 AM