Public Policy Polling

NC voters split on party of next Governor

Raleigh, N.C. – With Bev Perdue's retirement North Carolina looks to be headed for a closely contested Gubernatorial race this fall. 46% of voters in the state say they are generally leaning toward voting for a Democratic candidate, while 45% say they will vote Republican.

Despite the generic ballot basically being tied Pat McCrory starts out with the lead over 13 different potential Democratic opponents we tested him against, in large part because he has superior name recognition to all of them.  McCrory's also popular- 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 31% with a negative one and independents see him positively by a 55/25 spread.

By far the strongest Democratic candidate would be Erskine Bowles, who trails McCrory only 44-42 in a hypothetical contest. Bowles notably trails McCrory by only 19 points with whites, a group that Perdue lost by 25 points with in 2008. The only other Democrat to come within single digits of McCrory, and someone who hasn't really received much discussion as a potential candidate, is Senator Kay Hagan. She trails by 7 points at 48-41.

NC-Gov race should be close, McCrory has early lead

With Bev Perdue's retirement North Carolina looks to be headed for a closely contested Gubernatorial race this fall. 46% of voters in the state say they are generally leaning toward voting for a Democratic candidate, while 45% say they will vote Republican. That makes it clear Perdue's decision helps Democratic prospects for holding the Governor's office- she had consistently trailed by double digits in our polling over the last few months.

Despite the generic ballot basically being tied Pat McCrory starts out with the lead over 13 different potential Democratic opponents we tested him against, in large part because he has superior name recognition to all of them.  McCrory's also popular- 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 31% with a negative one and independents see him positively by a 55/25 spread. Those are unusually strong numbers and a reminder that Perdue's unpopularity wasn't the only reason she trailed McCrory by such a wide margin.

By far the strongest Democratic candidate would be Erskine Bowles, who trails McCrory only 44-42 in a hypothetical contest. Bowles notably trails McCrory by only 19 points with whites, a group that Perdue lost by 25 points with in 2008. The only reason Bowles isn't ahead of McCrory at this point is that he's getting just 71% of the black vote but assuming he ended up receiving the requisite 90-95% of it that Democrats are accustomed to that would make him the favorite.

Romney maintains Florida lead

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.'  The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Little Movement in Florida

PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.'  The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they'd already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead.  That puts Gingrich in a position where he'd have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.

Almost Romney's entire lead in Florida is coming from moderate voters. He has a 58-15 lead over Gingrich with them and only a 1 point advantage with the rest of the electorate. Other groups that continue to be a particular source of strength for Romney are seniors (48-32) and women (43-30).

We will have one final night of Florida tracking tomorrow.

Full results here

Romney takes back the lead in Florida

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP finds the same thing in its newest Florida poll that all surveys of the state have found in the last few days: strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and toward Mitt Romney.  Romney now leads with 40% to 32% for Gingrich, 15% for Rick Santorum, and 9% for Ron Paul. Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday.

It's clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10 (50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he's at +33 (64/31).

Romney up in Florida

PPP finds the same thing in its newest Florida poll that all surveys of the state have found in the last few days: strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and toward Mitt Romney.  Romney now leads with 40% to 32% for Gingrich, 15% for Rick Santorum, and 9% for Ron Paul. Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday.

It's clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10 (50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he's at +33 (64/31).

Santorum is actually the most well liked candidate among Florida voters with 65% seeing him favorably to 24% with a negative opinion.  In Iowa Santorum's persistently high favorability ratings were a precursor to his late surge.  But as popular as he is, he's only gone from 13% to 15% support in the last week.  It seems unlikely that he'll be able to break into the top two.

The backbone of Romney's support in Florida is senior citizens.  He's getting 50% of their voters with Gingrich at only 28%. Romney also appears to have a pretty good sized lead in the bank. Among those who have already voted he's at 45% to 35% for Gingrich.

Dayton sees strong approval in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – Minnesota DFL Governor Mark Dayton holds a +19 job approval rating, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance as Governor and 34% disapproving. His support is fueled by near-unanimous approval among Democrats (85-5)  and strong approval among Independents (51-33).

Voters aren’t as approving of the Legislature, disapproving of the job the DFL members are doing by a 31-49 margin, but holding an even worse opinion of Republican members at 23-62. Perhaps as a result, voters say they would support a DFL candidate over a Republican candidate for state legislature by a 48-39 margin.

Minnesota Odds and Ends

-Mark Dayton's numbers have improved since PPP last polled Minnesota in May and he's one of the most popular Governors in the country. 53% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 34% who disapprove.  That +19 spread is up 6 points from May when he was at +13 (51/38). Dayton has near unanimous approval from Democrats (85/5), is very strong with independents (51/33), and even has a decent amount of support from Republicans (19%). Dayton's 53% approval ties him for the 8th highest out of more than 40 sitting Governors PPP has polled on.

-Dayton may get himself an easier legislature to work with next year. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot in the state by a 48-39 margin. If that holds through November they should win back a whole lot of the seats they lost in 2010.  It's not that legislative Democrats are popular- only 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of them to 49% with a negative one. But legislative Republicans have horrible numbers. Their favorability rating is 23% with 62% of voters viewing them negatively. That honeymoon wore off real fast.

Texans disinclined to re-elect Perry

Raleigh, N.C. – In the wake of his failed presidential bid, Texas voters say they would vote for someone else instead of Rick Perry if he ran for reelection as Governor in 2014. A full 62% of voters say they would prefer someone else over Perry, with just 32% saying they would support Perry and only 5% unsure. 68% of independents and 37% of Republicans indicated they would support someone else over Perry.

“Texans’ esteem for Rick Perry has dropped considerably in the aftermath of his disastrous presidential bid,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “He’s got some work to do if he plans on running for office again in Texas.”

Texas Odds and Ends

-Rick Perry left the door open last week for seeking another term as Governor of Texas, but voters in the state might shut it on him. Only 32% say they would vote for Perry again in 2014, while 62% say they'd prefer someone else. He could probably win nomination for another term, because 56% of Republicans say they would support him. The general election might be a different issue though, with 68% of independents saying it's time for someone new while only 24% still support Perry.

-Both of Texas' Senators are more popular than their state's Governor.  Kay Bailey Hutchison (a +8 spread at 45/37) and John Cornyn (a +7 spread at 42/35) have nearly identical numbers. Cornyn is more popular with Republicans (62% approval to Hutchison's 58%), but Hutchison is more popular with Democrats (31% approval to Cornyn's 19%.)

-Texas voters have a very negative opinion of Jerry Jones, with only 14% rating him favorably to 48% who hold a negative opinion. I'm pretty sure that -34 spread represents the worst poll numbers we've ever found for someone in Texas. Voters are more charitable toward the state's other celebrity sports owner, Mark Cuban, who has a 29% favorability rating with 28% expressing a negative opinion toward him. Asked which of the two they like more Texans pick Cuban by a 34-22 margin.