Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he's now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich's lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife's controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.
The other reason his ex-wife's interview isn't causing him much trouble is that there's a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have 'no concerns' about what came out in the interview.
The skepticism of Republican voters toward the media is helping Gingrich as well. Just 14% of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of the media, while 77% view it negatively. Gingrich's attacks on the media have clearly played well with the party base.
Gingrich is leading with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate. He's up 41-21 on Romney and Santorum with Evangelicals, he has a 52-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Partiers, he leads Santorum 44-21 with 'very conservative' voters with Romney at 20%, and he's up 39-26 with men.
In the final week of the campaign Gingrich rose from 24% to 37% in PPP's polling while Romney basically stayed in place, going from 29% to 28%. Romney saw a 15 point decline in his net favorability in the closing stretch from +24 (57/33) to just +9 (51/42). Gingrich saw a modest increase in his numbers over the final week from +14 (51/37) to +17 (54/37).
Usually when we poll in the closing days before an election and find someone ahead by 9 points we'll say with a pretty high degree of confidence that person's going to win. I'm not comfortable saying that about South Carolina. A primary election with a lot of new news in the closing days for voters to absorb is fertile ground for a final result that's at odd with the polls. Mark Blumenthal's piece today for Huffington Post about 'expecting the unexpected' tomorrow is well worth a read. Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there's a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that's gone down in the last 48 hours.
Full results here
This is absolutely fantastic news (as an Obama supporter.) Gingrich is really going to win South Carolina, isn't he? And even with Santorum getting 16% ... wow. If Santorum drops out after this performance (as he should) ... how much of his support would go to Gingrich? ... maybe Newt can win Florida too.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | January 20, 2012 at 10:50 PM
Anyone will beat Obama who has done nothing but waste taxpayer dollars while driving up unemployment. The Obamas need a good dose of unemployment.
Posted by: Thor L.S. Armstrong | January 20, 2012 at 11:08 PM
My boy Newt is going to leave Obummer crying after the first debate.
Posted by: Newt 2012 | January 20, 2012 at 11:45 PM
The fact that Romney is polling under 50% even in Florida is not a good sign for him. I think Santorum is pretty much dead in the water. For Obama to win even against Gingrich, the unemployment has to continue to fall over the next months and perhaps get to 7.8% by August.
Posted by: George | January 20, 2012 at 11:58 PM
I am shocked by the Newt surge over the last few days. I hadn't even paid any attention to the debate on Monday because I was sure the race was over. Now I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Newt will in fact garner a double digit victory on South Carolina, and if he does this, I think he will ride the wave to a win in Florida and take the whole nomination. This would of course be followed by his massacre in November. I would be ecstatic if this happened, especially if he takes the GOP congress down with him.
Posted by: Michael Sadowsky | January 21, 2012 at 12:40 AM
Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012 Ron Paul 2012
If this posts....I will be wrong if th eblog is censored
Posted by: Roy Cinquegrani | January 21, 2012 at 12:49 AM
I really hope to see a poll in FL soon to see if the Newtmentum has pushed him back into the lead there and how the early vote is going.
Posted by: Victor | January 21, 2012 at 01:05 AM
[Hi Tom. Here's something I saw on the exciting net!]
Mormonism's DIRTY Little Secret
by Aaronita Smith
Non-Mormon scholars as well as Mormon ones are aware of a hard-core pornographic drawing in the "Book of Abraham" which is Mormon-approved scripture.
This Book is part of the "Pearl of Great Price" which, along with the "Book of Mormon" and the "Doctrine and Covenants," make up the LDS church's "triple combination" in one volume.
The porn is found in Fig. 7 of Facsimile 2 in the "Book of Abraham" which shows two beings facing each other, which were described by Joseph Smith as representing the "Holy Ghost" and "God sitting upon his throne," the latter clearly showing an aroused male sex organ.
After Smith published this sketch in his newspaper in 1842, which offended Mormon sensibilities, the phallic portion was whited out for more than a century until the "restored" LDS church decided in 1981 to restore what had long been censored!
Equally shocking was the discovery that the "Book of Abraham" had nothing to do with Abraham or his God but was actually based on ancient Egyptian funeral documents depicting occultic obscene practices - and the original sketches showed an erotic phallus on both beings including the one Smith blasphemously claimed was the Holy Ghost!
For further information see "Book of Abraham" (Wikipedia). Also see Jerald and Sandra Tanner's "Mormonism - Shadow or Reality?" which on 76 pages reproduces the original Egyptian X-rated drawings and shows how Smith altered them and created one of his many frauds. Highlights in the classic Tanner work can be seen by typing "Facts From Mormons (By a Utah Resident)" and "What LDS Leaders Say" on Yahoo.
(Mitt Romney did NOT approve of this message!)
Posted by: Johnny Ward | January 21, 2012 at 01:05 AM
Agreed! Newt would be a easy win for Obama. Actually anybody but Ron Paul will guarantee us a win. George Bush took 8 years to ruin the country Obama needs 8 to fix it!
Posted by: Jadan Green | January 21, 2012 at 02:03 AM
In the end, this will mean as much, as Santorum's win in Iowa.
Posted by: Charles Almon | January 21, 2012 at 02:08 AM
No mention of Chuck Norris's endorsement? Surely that is the reason for Gingrich's surge!
Posted by: Tim | January 21, 2012 at 05:50 AM
In agreement with Tim...Chuck Norris ended the primary yesterday.
Posted by: Maryland Seo | January 21, 2012 at 08:06 AM
PPP's latest polling of Texas has Obama beating Gingrich there 47-45. As an Obama supporter, I am LOVING the surge of Newt Gingrich to the top of the GOP. For those Republicans who fantasize about Newt beating Obama in debates, I can only say, "Bring it on." No, really, please keep telling yourself that. Yes - Newt will surely wipe the floor with Obama. He has so many great, well-articulated ideas. He's a fighting conservative! LOL...
Posted by: Elrod | January 21, 2012 at 08:51 AM
Hi
What were the exact results of yesterday night alone ?
40% Gingrich
26% Romney
? Paul
? Santorum
? Undecided
Posted by: Bazinga ! | January 21, 2012 at 09:08 AM
Well, PPP can wrap it up, I guess. "George" says Obama is gonna lose.
Why bother with scientific polling and statistical analysis, when we can just consult the same wingnuts that told us Obama couldn't win in 2008?
And "Roy Cinquegrani" tells us (sixteen times) that Ron Paul will win the 2012 election. So I guess it's all settled. As everyone knows, if you predict something sixteen times, it's absolutely true.
Posted by: Todd Dugdale | January 21, 2012 at 09:50 AM
Who is leading in the GOP primary?
Mr 1% Romney and Mr Big ideas Gingrich.
But where are the new big ideas? Lower taxes? Less government regulation? My 11 year old son can write an essay about that.
From the outside I must tell you. Truth and wisdom is a rare ingredient in the US primary election.
Watch: German preacher's thoughts on 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpLYq525SpM
Posted by: Matthias Klein | January 21, 2012 at 10:06 AM
A comment by GMason1776, under Chuck's endorsement of Newt at WND:
Here's how the 3 hour Lincoln-Douglas style debate will go down between Obama and Gingrich:
Gingrich: Individual mandates equal socialism.
Obama: You supported individual mandates.
Gingrich: Bailouts equal socialism.
Obama: You supported bailouts.
Gingrich: Global warming is a hoax and carbon taxes equal socialism.
Obama: You supported carbon taxes as a way to offset man made global warming.
Gingrich: The Democrats are weak on national security.
Obama: Bin-Laden was killed during my administration. Also check Gaddafi and numerous other Al-Qaeda leaders off the list thanks to me.
Gingrich: The Democrats don't embrace family values.
Obama: I've been married to my first wife for 20 years and have two beautiful children. You've cheated on and left two wives, one while she was very ill.
Even without a teleprompter, it won't be too difficult for Obama to expose Newt as a lying, flip-flopping, crook.
The GOP needs to look elsewhere for a nominee.
Posted by: Jeremy Noble | January 21, 2012 at 10:26 AM
Internal polling by the 1% likely suggests that Mittens would actually win against Obama and would then spend four years fighting a Democratic Senate and possibly a Democratic House for the exact same right wing policies that Obama is getting through like a breeze (macho austerity means kiss what you earned goodbye). So Newt to the rescue. While Newt is talking about putting 8 year old(s) to work -- his chances of winning in the general are slightly higher than 0% -- Obama's Obamatrons will fall for his vacuous speeches while the independents will remain fairly happy with his right wing 1% oriented policy. He TALKS keeping the internet free, at the same time his puppet Justice Department shuts down Megaupload on mere suspicion with absolutely no judicial review even when SOPA and PIPA have been booed off the table.
As Stalin used to say, it's not who gets the votes but who counts them that counts and a slight variation on that theme is who picks the fall guy to run against the chosen one who's bringing 100% to the 1% already.
Posted by: Hmmm | January 21, 2012 at 11:26 AM
It's hilarious to me the way that Newt fan-boys think that Gingrich could beat Obama in the general election. Most Americans are not crazy right wing nuts. Sorry.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | January 21, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Newt will bend Obama over in any debate...
...and I just LOVE the over confidence by his supporters. It's astonishing to think that they really believe he's a slam dunk to beat ANYONE who comes out of the GOP nomination process with unemployment and the economy in this kind of shape.
Posted by: Michael B | January 21, 2012 at 05:35 PM
""George" says Obama is gonna lose."
Dont misquote me. I said if the unemployment rate drops below 8% Obama will win. You want to know who will win. Just follow PPP over the next ten months or so. Congratulations to PPP for a job well done in SC!
Posted by: George | January 22, 2012 at 12:08 AM
To Bazinga:
The final night alone had these results:
Gingrich 40%
Romney 26%
Santorum 16%
Paul 13%
Scroll down here, and then click on "Show All Polls" to see the numbers.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/south-carolina
Posted by: BruinKid | January 22, 2012 at 12:55 AM
Considering the polling broken down by the electoral college, Obama supporters have quite a lot of cause to feel confident. Take just the states that were won by all three of Gore, Kerry, and Obama; none of those is likely to flip for any candidate whose professed public opinion is that George W. Bush was INSUFFICIENTLY far-right. Then you look at huge leads in Colorado (which has decidedly swung) and Iowa and New Mexico (which were Indiana2008-style flukes in 2004), and you're already almost to 270. Obama has a major lead in Ohio, leads in Virginia, and North Carolina, and has led in some permutation at least one poll in the last two months in Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Missouri, and of all places, Texas. For Republicans to win, they have to hold their base (can't afford to have any Indiana2008 surprises) *plus* win every single swing state, and then just barely, barely squeak past the 270 mark.
A wave election like 2010 could have changed the map, but in a base-on-base election (as presidential years tend to be, with high turnout) Republicans are on the verge of being nonviable for the White House for the next generation. Republicans shot their wad in 2010, and the incredibly unpopular politicians (Walker, Kasich, Scott, O'Brien, etc) they have as a result have ensured that independents and Democrats know exactly what Republicans want to do if they get the chance. And then on top of that, you have a recent poll (not PPP) that came out showing that the American people recognize just what Republicans are doing - more or less all non-Republicans recognize that Obama has tried to work with Republicans to get *anything* done, and blame them for the country's political paralysis.
It's not over, but Obama supporters have a great deal of cause to be confident, particularly when considering the Electoral College.
Posted by: realnrh | January 22, 2012 at 02:25 AM
Turns out that your 40% to 26% for Friday was almost dead on... 40.4 to 27.8 ... sweet.
I'm thrilled by the Newt resurgence. The Republican implosion is a joy to watch.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | January 22, 2012 at 02:30 AM
Amazing. Just amazing. Your final night of polling missed the final tally by just two points. Kudos to the most accurate pollster EVER!
Posted by: bagshotbit | January 22, 2012 at 03:27 AM
PPP is on a roll. This was a highly fluid environment and a real challenge for pollsters. But you nailed it, just as you nailed the difficult-to-poll special election for an open state senate seat in Iowa and the special election in NY-9. Great work PPP!
Posted by: Gerald | January 22, 2012 at 05:54 AM