NC-Gov race should be close, McCrory has early lead

With Bev Perdue's retirement North Carolina looks to be headed for a closely contested Gubernatorial race this fall. 46% of voters in the state say they are generally leaning toward voting for a Democratic candidate, while 45% say they will vote Republican. That makes it clear Perdue's decision helps Democratic prospects for holding the Governor's office- she had consistently trailed by double digits in our polling over the last few months.

Despite the generic ballot basically being tied Pat McCrory starts out with the lead over 13 different potential Democratic opponents we tested him against, in large part because he has superior name recognition to all of them.  McCrory's also popular- 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 31% with a negative one and independents see him positively by a 55/25 spread. Those are unusually strong numbers and a reminder that Perdue's unpopularity wasn't the only reason she trailed McCrory by such a wide margin.

By far the strongest Democratic candidate would be Erskine Bowles, who trails McCrory only 44-42 in a hypothetical contest. Bowles notably trails McCrory by only 19 points with whites, a group that Perdue lost by 25 points with in 2008. The only reason Bowles isn't ahead of McCrory at this point is that he's getting just 71% of the black vote but assuming he ended up receiving the requisite 90-95% of it that Democrats are accustomed to that would make him the favorite.

The only other Democrat to come within single digits of McCrory, and someone who hasn't really received much discussion as a potential candidate, is Senator Kay Hagan. She trails by 7 points at 48-41, numbers that probably don't justify risking her 2014 Senate reelection by running for a different office midstream.

The other Democrats all trail by 10 points or more. From ones who trail McCrory by the least to the ones who trail McCrory by the most they are: former State Treasurer Richard Moore who trails by 11 at 47-36, Congressman Brad Miller who trails by 14 at 49-35, Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton and former Congressman Bob Etheridge who each trail by 15 at 50-35, Congressman Heath Shuler who trails by 17 at 48-31, Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx and State Senator Dan Blue who each trail by 18 at 50-32 and 49-31 respectively, State Representative Bill Faison who trails by 19 at 50-31, and Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines, former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker, and Congressman Mike McIntyre who each trail by 20 at 50-30, 49-29, and 50-30 respectively.

McCrory has 76% name recognition. The 11 Democrats who trail him by double digits all have anywhere from only 31-52% name recognition.  The race would tighten up a good deal if any of those folks were to become the Democratic nominee because McCrory's name recognition advantage would disappear in the general election. He might still be favored, but not by the kinds of margins he's posting in this poll.

We didn't look at the Democratic primary because the field is so uncertain now but the favorabilities of the potential candidates within their own party give a good early clue. Here's how they stack up:

Candidate	Favorability with Democrats
Kay Hagan	+40 (58/18)
Erskine Bowles	+38 (53/15)
Bob Etheridge	+27 (40/13)
Richard Moore	+27 (36/9)
Brad Miller	+24 (35/11)
Anthony Foxx	+20 (32/12)
Dan Blue	+18 (30/12)
Charles Meeker	+14 (25/11)
Mike McIntyre	+8 (19/11)
Walter Dalton	+8 (26/18)
Heath Shuler	+7 (23/16)
Allen Joines	+5 (14/9)
Bill Faison	-5 (13/18)

Announced candidates Walter Dalton and Bill Faison come in toward the bottom of the list, making it clear there's room for more entrants in the Democratic field.

Pat McCrory continues to be the favorite, especially if Erskine Bowles doesn't end up running. But Democrats now have a fighting chance.

Full results here

Comments

[A Facebook User]

Why did you poll Roy Cooper? The AG?