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January 25, 2012

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George

Are you going to have a number for the horse race between Obama and Gingrich and Obama and Romney?

Todd Dugdale

It's important to understand that the MN Republican caucus is non-binding.

In 2008, Romney won 41% in the caucus vote. Yet, all of the delegates went to McCain, who only won 22% of the vote. Paul's delegates were simply ignored and counted as abstentions.

The MN GOP decides who gets the delegates, and the caucus results really have no bearing on their decision. This is also the case for the Iowa Republican caucus.

This caucus may have meaning as far as establishing momentum or supporting a narrative, but it has no meaning whatsoever in determining which candidate gets the delegates.

Teemu

In 2008 Romney polled 3rd in Minnesota, but the caucuses. Relatively to population other caucuses tend to have at least 3 to 4 times lower turnout than Iowa caucuses, even if the race is still competitive.


In 2008 Nevada caucuses the best poll got Romney's victory margin over 22 points lower, RCP Nevada average was off by over 32 points.

The best Colorado caucus poll underpolled Romney's victory margin by 22 points.

One Minnesota Republican poll showed McCain with 41 percent among Minnesota Republicans, with Huckabee second and Romney third. But caucus-goers actually favored Romney overwhelmingly.

These caucuses that have 3-4 times lower turnout than IA caucuses seem to be impossible to poll. Could we get Florida tracking poll instead of caucus polls?

Ade

I think that Paul's policies make him a vote magnet, he will continue to climb as more and more hear his message.

Bill Jungbauer

Lame! I'm a definite caucus goer. I was never called. The number of those polled make up no more than a good showing at a single house district. IMHO, this was a push poll.

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