Gingrich leads Romney on 1st night of tracking

Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney 34-28 in PPP's South Carolina polling last night, the first of what will be three nights of tracking.  Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5%, and Buddy Roemer at 3% round out the field. 

This is not a case of Romney imploding.  His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.

It's clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich's prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich's lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn't tune in.

Gingrich is starting to consolidate his support with some of the more conservative parts of the South Carolina electorate. He has a 50-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Party voters.  He's up 39-23 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' And he even has a 37-20 advantage with evangelicals.

Gingrich is clearly flying high. The big question now is whether ABC's interview with his ex-wife tonight will stifle all this momentum. For instance, will his strong support from evangelicals remain intact after they hear accusations that he wanted an 'open marriage?'

Rick Perry's exit from the race shouldn't make a huge difference. He was only polling at 5% and his supporters were evenly divided on their second choice with 26% each picking Gingrich and Romney. It's possible though that his endorsement will cause more of those supporters to move in Gingrich's direction.

Just for fun on this poll we tested the alternative universe in which Stephen Colbert had been allowed on the South Carolina ballot and he gets 8%, putting him in 5th place and ahead of Perry's 6%.  Perry joins Jon Huntsman as GOP candidates who have trailed Colbert in our South Carolina polling and then exited the race.

Colbert's 8% is up from 5% in a poll we conducted two weeks ago, making him the only candidate besides Gingrich and Paul whose support has risen since that time.

We will conduct our first post-Perry, post-Marianne Gingrich interviews tonight. Expect fresh numbers sometime between 10 and 11 PM.

Full results here

Comments

[dw]

Did you include Herman Cain? His name remains on the ballot, and Colbert's Super PAC is urging South Carolians to vote for him

[Bazinga !]

Guys, Buddy Roemer isn't even on the ballot in SC.

You should drop him from your polls. Otherwise you'll look like fools.

You know, like when you included that Socialist guy in the New York special that ended up with 0.5% and you had a poll out showing him at 5%.

[Obama 2012]

As an Obama supporter I still think Romney is a stronger candidate than Gingrich in the general... but this is despite Romney looking weaker every day ... Gingrich is just incredibly unlikable to normal people (ie: non hard core Republicans) ... so ... I'm excited to see Gingrich with a real shot at winning SC. I would love to see Newt as the nominee.

But that said; I am not at all afraid of Romney. He is an exceptionally weak general election candidate. As your favorable vs unfavorable numbers show ... most people just don't like the guy. It's hard to get elected to the White House when people see you a smarmy Gordon Gecko type.

[George]

If the trend holds up Newt will win although by a narrow margin in SC. His next best chance is in Florida where he needs to at least finish a strong second to Romney. After that, except for Maine Caucus he does not have much of a prayer until Super Tuesday, March 6 with a bunch of southern states...too far from now...almost the end of the college basketball season.

[Thomas]

Bazinga is right. Roemer not on ballot in SC. Why not test the 9 people who are on the ballot, including Cain?

[Dynotec]

Can you poll 2008 choice next time?

[Bill]

I'm GLAD they included Buddy Roemer in the poll! Considering he is not usually included in most polls even though he IS STILL RUNNING. And then he's penalized for not having a high enough percentage in the polls and gets excluded from the debates. Kind of hard to register on a poll when you're not included.

He's not on the SC ballot because it costs $25K to get your name on it, and since he doesn't take any contributions over $100 (so that he's not a lackey for Goldman Sachs or GE) and actually represents the PEOPLE, he made a strategic decision to skip SC and focus on Michigan and other later states.

Roemer is the ONLY GOP candidate who could beat Obama.

[Bazinga !]

Bill,

Including Roemer in a state where he is on the ballot is OK, but doing so in states like SC only makes PPP polls WRONG.

It directs 3-5% to a candidate that doesn't exist and these 3-5% could go to another candidate instead.

Does PPP still want to create accurate polls ? Then they need to drop the obscure Roemer from their polls in states like SC.

[Ariana]

Glad you included Buddy Roemer in your poll/article. He is not on the SC ballot because it costs WAY too much money to get on it. He doesn't accept PAC money and no contributions over $100. I'm sure that the others on the ballot had no problem paying the SC's fee with their Big Bank Checks, Big Insurance Checks, Big Pharmaceutical Checks or with their SuperPac Money. Don't you wonder why the media puts the same handful of candidates in front of you day in and day out? Making you think that they are the only choices you have. They are already bought and paid for. Do your homework! How come a 4 time Congressman & Former Governor & Successful Businessman cannot get into a debate? Could it be his main message of campaign reform? How much $ would the tv networks loose on just political ads alone if campaign reform was actually implemented? Get the money + corruption + greed out of the system = vote for whoever you want. Buddy Roemer 2012 buddyroemer.com