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January 06, 2012

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dw

Would you have any comparable figures for the 2008 election?

Scot Reader


Thanks as always for the data. But to assess whether there will be any drop-off for any of these groups, don't we have to compare the "very excited" percentages from 2008 and 2012? (I understand this can't be done for the Tea Party).

Todd Dugdale

Roughly 8% of registered voters are undecided (per a previous post) at this point. Yet, 23% of registered voters are "not at all excited" right now. Doesn't that suggest that these undecided voters probably won't turn out? It would be interesting to see how apathetic these undecided voters really are in a cross-tab, since this 8% is one of the swing factors you have mentioned.

Also, at 30% "not at all excited", Independents seem an unlikely saviour for Republicans. Over the course of the past year, "very excited" figures (your figures) for both Democrats and Republicans have varied within a 10% range, with both Parties showing a slight, general, gradual decline from their 1/16/11 highs. Actually, this is the case for many of the demographics: enthusiasm has been gradually *dropping* over 2011.

Considering that the national "very excited" figure is currently 49%, only 7 of the 18 demographics are above the national average.

Richard

"If the GOP wins it'll because they flipped independents"

No..If the GOP wins it will be because they disfranchised enough voters in FL, OH, & WI....That is all Scott, Kasish, and Walker have focused on since taking office - how to suppress the vote....I'm sorry the republicans do not have a Reagan type candiate, Romney is aloof, arrogant, & unlikeable....The ONLY way Obama loses is through voter suppression...PERIOD

Obama 2012

We're not going to let the Republicans screw this country into the ground with their policies that only benefit the 1%.

I don't care if it's a somewhat reasonable generic Republican like Romney or some total loser like Santorum. Republicans are wrong on the issues and when light is shed on that, they will lose.

George

Obama will win if unemployment continues to go down and is below 8% by the time of September Jobs Report, and if 200,000 + jobs are created at least in six of the remaining ten months with the other four at least 125,000+. Otherwise he will loose!

Alan Snipes

I find it interesting that you think that as of today, Obama would lose because the number of undecided voters skews Republican. However, I have seen no national surveys, let alone state by state polls that indicate anything other than Obama is solidly ahead in the electoral college (uselectionatlas.org)and it is the republicans who have a much more difficult road in getting to 270 electoral votes.
Again, I emphasize, as of today.

Mose

I'd like to make a suggestion regarding the way pollsters ask respondents about whether a particular VP nominee would make them more or less like to vote for a particular Presidential candidate. There needs to be a control question. The first question should be something like: "For the 2012 Presidential election, if the candidates were Barack Obama, a Democrat, and Mitt Romney, a Republican, would you say you were:
1. Highly likely to vote for Barack Obama
2. Somewhat likely to vote for Barack Obama
3. Somewhat likely to vote for Mitt Romney
4. Highly likely to vote for Mitt Romney
5. Not sure/undecided

Then, the follow up question would be: "For the 2012 Presidential election, if the Democratic ticket consisted of Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, and the Republican ticket consisted of Mitt Romney for President, and Marco Rubio for Vice President, would you say you were:
1. Highly likely to vote for Obama/Biden
2. Somewhat likely to vote for Obama/Biden
3. Somewhat likely to vote for Romney/Rubio
4. Highly likely to vote for Romney/Rubio
5. Not sure/undecided

I think that format or something like it would give us a better idea of the effect a particular potential VP selection has on the strength of the ticket.

Thanks for all the work that you do - enjoying all the polls.

jeff

Sorry but Obama would probably win against Romney. Obviously this pollster hasn't been paying attention the last couple of days. Oh and if the GOP wins it will be because of the voter suppression laws that they've been hammering away at creating to make it harder for blacks and minorities to vote.

Oh and btw I'm white and am a supporter of Obama. Sorry not just African American's want Obama to be re-elected no matter what your polls claim.

Rhonda

Women, a critical part of the Democratic party,are only at 46% "very excited" to vote this year. Let Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden switch jobs and President Obama will win easily. This has been proposed by many articles, most recently the New York Times.

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