Enthusiasm and the 2012 Election

One of the things I hear from people all the time is that there's no way Democratic turnout in 2012 will be what it was in 2008, that African Americans and young people have lost all of their enthusiasm for Obama.

I disagree.

Obama's path to reelection is difficult and if the election was today and the Republican nominee was Mitt Romney I think he'd probably lose. That's because his standing has fallen so far with independents and with the more conservative wing of his own party. But it's not because those core groups that fueled his victory in 2008 have lost their enthusiasm. Here's the percentage of voters by various demographic groups who are 'very excited' about voting in this fall's election:

Voter Group	% ‘Very Excited’ to vote this year
African American	62%
Tea Party	62%
18 to 29	55%
Conservative	55%
Liberal	54%
Republican	54%
Man	52%
Democrat	49%
Hispanic	49%
Union Member	48%
White	48%
30 to 45	48%
46 to 65	48%
Older than 65	47%
Woman	46%
Moderate	42%
Independent	41%

The group of voters most excited about voting this year, tied with the Tea Party, is African Americans. The thought that black voters are going to stay home and let the country's first black President lose for reelection because everything hasn't gone perfect is wishful thinking on the part of Republicans.  I will be surprised if there is any dropoff in turnout from African Americans this year.

The group tied for the third most excited out of the 18 we looked at here? Young voters. And when you take a deeper look at the folks under 30 who say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall, they support Obama by a 69-31 margin over a generic Republican opponent. Those folks are going to be out again this fall as well.

There's plenty of good news for Republicans on the enthusiasm front as well. Tea Partiers tie with African Americans for the highest level of enthusiasm. There are more Republicans (54%) who are 'very excited' about voting than Democrats (49%).

The desire to dump Obama may give GOP voters more of an incentive to get out to the polls than they had in 2008.  But it's kind of a given that Republicans come out and vote. Democratic constituencies tend to be the harder ones to engage and mobilize. But as much speculation as there's been that they won't be there for Obama this fall the way they were in 2008, our numbers disagree. If the GOP wins it'll because they flipped independents and brought back out dormant 2008 voters, not because the Obama coalition stayed at home.

Full results here

Comments

[dw]

Would you have any comparable figures for the 2008 election?

[Scot Reader]

Thanks as always for the data. But to assess whether there will be any drop-off for any of these groups, don't we have to compare the "very excited" percentages from 2008 and 2012? (I understand this can't be done for the Tea Party).

[Todd Dugdale]

Roughly 8% of registered voters are undecided (per a previous post) at this point. Yet, 23% of registered voters are "not at all excited" right now. Doesn't that suggest that these undecided voters probably won't turn out? It would be interesting to see how apathetic these undecided voters really are in a cross-tab, since this 8% is one of the swing factors you have mentioned.

Also, at 30% "not at all excited", Independents seem an unlikely saviour for Republicans. Over the course of the past year, "very excited" figures (your figures) for both Democrats and Republicans have varied within a 10% range, with both Parties showing a slight, general, gradual decline from their 1/16/11 highs. Actually, this is the case for many of the demographics: enthusiasm has been gradually *dropping* over 2011.

Considering that the national "very excited" figure is currently 49%, only 7 of the 18 demographics are above the national average.

[Richard]

"If the GOP wins it'll because they flipped independents"

No..If the GOP wins it will be because they disfranchised enough voters in FL, OH, & WI....That is all Scott, Kasish, and Walker have focused on since taking office - how to suppress the vote....I'm sorry the republicans do not have a Reagan type candiate, Romney is aloof, arrogant, & unlikeable....The ONLY way Obama loses is through voter suppression...PERIOD

[Obama 2012]

We're not going to let the Republicans screw this country into the ground with their policies that only benefit the 1%.

I don't care if it's a somewhat reasonable generic Republican like Romney or some total loser like Santorum. Republicans are wrong on the issues and when light is shed on that, they will lose.

[George]

Obama will win if unemployment continues to go down and is below 8% by the time of September Jobs Report, and if 200,000 + jobs are created at least in six of the remaining ten months with the other four at least 125,000+. Otherwise he will loose!

[Alan Snipes]

I find it interesting that you think that as of today, Obama would lose because the number of undecided voters skews Republican. However, I have seen no national surveys, let alone state by state polls that indicate anything other than Obama is solidly ahead in the electoral college (uselectionatlas.org)and it is the republicans who have a much more difficult road in getting to 270 electoral votes.
Again, I emphasize, as of today.

[Mose]

I'd like to make a suggestion regarding the way pollsters ask respondents about whether a particular VP nominee would make them more or less like to vote for a particular Presidential candidate. There needs to be a control question. The first question should be something like: "For the 2012 Presidential election, if the candidates were Barack Obama, a Democrat, and Mitt Romney, a Republican, would you say you were:
1. Highly likely to vote for Barack Obama
2. Somewhat likely to vote for Barack Obama
3. Somewhat likely to vote for Mitt Romney
4. Highly likely to vote for Mitt Romney
5. Not sure/undecided

Then, the follow up question would be: "For the 2012 Presidential election, if the Democratic ticket consisted of Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, and the Republican ticket consisted of Mitt Romney for President, and Marco Rubio for Vice President, would you say you were:
1. Highly likely to vote for Obama/Biden
2. Somewhat likely to vote for Obama/Biden
3. Somewhat likely to vote for Romney/Rubio
4. Highly likely to vote for Romney/Rubio
5. Not sure/undecided

I think that format or something like it would give us a better idea of the effect a particular potential VP selection has on the strength of the ticket.

Thanks for all the work that you do - enjoying all the polls.

[jeff]

Sorry but Obama would probably win against Romney. Obviously this pollster hasn't been paying attention the last couple of days. Oh and if the GOP wins it will be because of the voter suppression laws that they've been hammering away at creating to make it harder for blacks and minorities to vote.

Oh and btw I'm white and am a supporter of Obama. Sorry not just African American's want Obama to be re-elected no matter what your polls claim.

[Rhonda]

Women, a critical part of the Democratic party,are only at 46% "very excited" to vote this year. Let Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden switch jobs and President Obama will win easily. This has been proposed by many articles, most recently the New York Times.