Tom Barrett would be the front runner if he decides to seek the Democratic nomination for Governor of Wisconsin in the upcoming recall election. He leads Kathleen Falk 46-27 and David Obey 42-30 in potential head to heads. He also gets 26% to 22% for Falk, 21% for Obey, and 11% for Tim Cullen in a hypothetical four way contest.
If Barrett doesn't end up throwing his hat in the ring, it looks like Obey would have a better chance at the nomination than Falk as well. He leads her 43-28 in a head to head contest.
Barrett has the best favorability numbers of the candidates at a +30 spread (53/23). He's followed by Obey at +20 (43/23), Falk at +8 (36/28), and Cullen at +6 (25/19).
Barrett may have greater name recognition than Falk, but that's not the reason for his early advantage. Among likely primary voters with an opinion about Falk, whether it's positive or negative, Barrett's lead remains pretty much unchanged at 47-33.
There's a great deal of interest in the potential primary beyond the Democratic base. We find that 30% of likely voters for it are independents and 11% are even Republicans. Core Democrats prefer Barrett over Falk 53-25, Barrett over Obey 44-32, and Obey over Falk 48-27. In the four way contest 31% say they'd support Barrett to 25% for Obey with Falk slipping into third at 18% and Cullen at 9%.
Full results here