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December 22, 2011

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Jay

With all due respect, it only matters what people in Cantor's CD think of him. The rest of VA is irrelevant. Now if you find he is not doing well in his own CD or might have a problem there, it would mean something.

Gerald

VA follows the very same pattern on marriage as seen in every other PPP poll. In this case, we can compare the poll results to the 2006 vote in VA which saw the passage of a very broad marriage amendment by a vote of 57.1-42.9. Five years later, the opposition to SSM is down by 4, with no gain for supporters. (The decrease in stated support from 42.9 to 34 percent is a departure from the other PPP polls, which show SSM support holding steady or slightly increasing.) However, in those same 5 years, support for civil unions skyrockets 16%, with a parallel collapse in opposition, to the point where the support/oppose levels are nearly exactly reversed from 2006.

The key open question is whether the legions of new supporters of civil unions will, over time, migrate to full support for marriage. My suspicion is that they will and that civil unions are a convenient way of avoiding the cognitive dissonance that would accompany a sudden 180-degree shift in position. I theorize that people need to park themselves at CUs for a time before going over fully to SSM. But this remains to be seen.

Obama 2012

Gerald - your theory makes sense.

I think majority support for marriage equality is only a matter of time.

Phil

You guys need to poll VA again, this time with a 2-way between Romney and Paul only. It could be instructive as to how the primaries will shake out down the line - if Paul wins IA, what % of the others' support does he garner?

Blinky

When will you release the NH General Election numbers ?

Dustin Ingalls

We only asked about the primary in NH, as we said we would. We'll be doing another NH poll in a few days, but we also will only be asking about the primary then.

Alan Snipes

I think that it's unfortunate that you are only polling the Republican Primary in NH and not the General Election. According to a compilation of other polls, Obama trails in NH but no one has done a poll on NH for the general election for a while. It is the only New England state that has a chance of going Republican in the fall and if Obama can carry it, he would probably win easily. It would be nice to know though where NH stands as far as the general election is concerned.

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