Polls

Schweitzer could win Sen. nom in ’14 but maybe not MT in ‘16

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat in a red state, is one of the most popular governors in the country—in fact, his 55-33 approval spread makes him the seventh best-liked of 37 on which PPP has polled this year, thanks to approval from 30% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 83% of his own party.  Were he to challenge fellow Democrat Max Baucus for the 2014 Senate nomination, he would prevail, 51-35.  Schweitzer leads by 40 points with the most liberal voters, 17 with moderates, and even 23 with the most conservative.

But if Schweitzer runs for the White House two years later, he might have a tougher time winning his own state in the general election.  47% say they would not vote for him, and only 32% say they would.  Independents mirror the overall results, but while Schweitzer pulls 12% of GOP voters, 22% of his own party says they would not vote for him.

Add Montana to the list of states where even opponents of gay marriage—a 51% majority—still are okay with civil unions.  62% want same-sex couples to have legal equality, including 84% of Democrats, 65% of independents, and 39% of Republicans, only 10% of whom favor marriage in the two-way question.

Montanans are split all over the map when it comes to baseball.  A 23% plurality have no affiliate, while 19% favor the Seattle Mariners, 10% each the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, and New York Yankees, 8% the Minnesota Twins, 5% the Atlanta Braves, 4% the Cincinnati Reds, and 2% the Milwaukee Brewers.

The state bucks the location trend in the NFL.  A 26% plurality roots for some other team or no one, but 19% prefer the Green Bay Packers, 16% the Denver Broncos, 8% each the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, 7% the Dallas Cowboys, 6% the Pittsburgh Steelers, and 5% the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers.

PPP surveyed 1,625 Montana voters, including 573 usual Democratic primary voters, from November 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-2.4%, and +/-4.1% for the Democratic primary portion.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve…………….. 37%
Disapprove………… 51%
Not sure ……………. 12%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 55%
Disapprove………… 33%
Not sure ……………. 13%

Q3 If the Democratic candidates for Senate in
2014 were Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer,
who would you vote for? (Asked only of 573
Democratic primary voters)
Max Baucus ……………………………………………. 35%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .37%
Illegal ………………… .51%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry…………………..32%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry…………………..30%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple’s
relationship ………….35%
Not sure …………….. . 3%

Q6 Do you support or oppose the goals of the
Occupy Wall Street movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 33%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q7 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q8 Do you have a higher opinion of the Occupy
Wall Street movement or the Tea Party
movement?
Occupy Wall Street ………………………………….. 39%
Tea Party ……………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q9 If Brian Schweitzer ran for President in 2016,
would you vote for him or not?
Would vote Brian Schweitzer for President….. 32%
Would not……………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 Given the choices of the Chicago Bears, Dallas
Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay
Packers, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco
49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Seattle
Seahawks, which is your favorite football
team?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 5%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 7%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 16%
Packers………………………………………………….. 19%
Vikings …………………………………………………… 8%
49ers……………………………………………………… 5%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 6%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 26%

Q11 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati
Reds, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers,
Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and
Seattle Mariners, which is your favorite
baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 5%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 10%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 10%
Reds ……………………………………………………… 4%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 10%
Brewers …………………………………………………. 2%
Twins……………………………………………………… 8%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 10%
Mariners…………………………………………………. 19%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 23%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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