Romney still up big in New Hampshire

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds everything pretty much as it was a week and a half ago with one exception: Newt Gingrich's support continues to plummet in the state, allowing Ron Paul to move into a clear second place.

Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within 2 points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire 2 weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.

There's little to suggest anyone could come from behind to defeat Romney in New Hampshire. He has the best favorability numbers in the state at 63/32 and 78% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, higher even than Paul's number on that front. 44% of voters think he has the best chance of beating Obama with Gingrich the next closest at 11%. 40% think he has run the strongest campaign in the state, with the next closest Paul at 15%. And there's a sense of inevitability about him- 47% think he will win the state 13% for Paul with no one else in double digits. Romney's even winning the Tea Party vote 26-20 over Gingrich, a feat he's not managing in too many states.

Paul's second place standing in New Hampshire is being driven by the same groups he's doing well with in Iowa: young people and non-Republicans. With voters under 45 Paul actually leads Romney by a 27-24 margin. But Romney is destroying Paul 46-11 with seniors, accounting for most of his overall advantage. With non-Republicans, almost 40% of the vote in New Hampshire, the race is very close with Romney at 27%, Paul at 24%, and Huntsman at 21%. But with actual Republican voters Romney has the 42-19 advantage.

After hitting double digits for the first time in our last New Hampshire poll Huntsman seems to have hit a wall, going from 13% to 12%. He's gotten to the point where voters in the state at least respect him- his 55/27 favorability rating makes him the only candidate other than Romney over 50% on that front. But although Huntsman's winning Obama voters by a 25-24 margin over Romney, he's polling at only 6% with those describing themselves as conservatives and you just can't do that and hope to get much traction in a Republican primary. It's looking more and more like Huntsman's best case scenario could be a third place finish.

Talking about a 'Santorum surge' seems to be all the rage this week but he's polling at only 3% in New Hampshire, tying him with Rick Perry and even Buddy Roemer for 6th place. His favorability is slightly under water at 39/40. It's important to remember that even the momentum from winning Iowa in 2008 was only enough to push Mike Huckabee to 11% in New Hampshire so it seems doubtful that a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the state would get Santorum into contention in the Granite State.

Things just keep getting worse for Newt Gingrich. In addition to falling from 17% to 13% his 42/53 favorability makes him the second most unpopular of the candidates in New Hampshire, better only than Perry's 26/62.

New Hampshire certainly still looks like it will be Mitt Romney's firewall.

Full results here

Comments

[HinterlandG]

If Jon Huntsman can move into second place, he may get a bounce in the polls and move up from a tier 3 candidate. It's a real shame that he isn't gaining more traction. He is, by far, the better candidate to meet Obama in the general elections.

[RonPaulKicksAss]

Ron Paul for president! Bring the troops home! Legalize the Constitution!

[Valleyforge]

If Romney finishes third in Iowa he will find out how many fair weather supporters he has. I believe he was leading McCain in 2008 before Iowa by the same margin he currently leafs Paul. And McCain didn't win Iowa. Romney is about to beat himself by playing to win in Iowa. If he gets eclipsed by both Paul and Santorum, who both have potentially very motivated bases, New Hampshirites will decide he's not inevitable after all.

[me.yahoo.com/a/E8cgHOgsyd3AaH1t2GiR8vDgjz0-]

Start polling South Carolina and Florida.

Ron Paul is gonna win Iowa and get a five point bump in New Hampshire, leading the media to declare him the "come-back kid".

With Newt fading, with the others falling off the map, with Romney failing to meet expectations in his home turf of New Hampshire, the non-Romney/non-Mormon vote could coalesce around Ron Paul in the south.

[Obama 2012]

I'm impressed with Paul's solid 2nd place finish. If Paul can pull out a win in Iowa it seems like he could get enough of a boost in NH to make it competitive.

[John]

When is it time for South Carolina and Florida? Would like a poll there before Iowa so we can see how big an affect Iowa had on the numbers in SC and FL.

[rombama]

Governor Ponzi, you and the other bleached and haberdasheried whores of State, are reminiscent of nihilistic apparatchiks, images better faded to black.

Your duplicity [...YOU believe in small government and the middle cl@ss ? Corporations are not persons but PEOPLE ?] is only matched by your cowardice to sacrifice the preborn, the sons of the politically non-connected; and the brethren of the world’s three, great religions (ie, those Semitic in origin, hmmm). And you want to be @ssociated with personhood ?

Your idea of satrap-building (excuse me "nation-building") involves systematic purging and secularizing; so what's "in store" for us ?

Your wealth came from looting the Fed-leveraged Bain. You said the SLC Olympics made a profit, but you didn't say that was after cronies cashed-out local taxpayer-subsidies, and George the Younger threw a few of our billion your way. Crony Capitalism isn't entrepreneurship because it socializes individual risk.

At best you're an extremely loud, empty suit hanging on an isolated hook, worn by a furtive, Runyonesque character.

But of course Neo-Cons like you and Neo-Liberals like BHO and the Trailer-trash Twins only nurture for absolute, Communistic power.

You have a problem. There's an 800-lb gorilla and elephant in the room talking about liberty and prosperity through Free-Market Capitalism. A glaring omission which fancies you either psychopathic or evil. You can run but you can't hide from natural truth. You can't hide from Statesman Paul.

[Howard Tinsley]

How fair can a poll be when you fail to equally add Democrats to the equation ?

[Gerald]

The caucus is certainly proving to be a frothy mix of uncertainty and surprise. I think Bob Vander Plaats will take full credit for the Santorum surge, although he and his fellow social conservatives are most likely frustrated to see their votes diluted among 3 or 4 candidates. If they can get Perry and Bachmann out quickly, Santorum or Gingrich would capture those votes and derail Romney in the South.

[Restore the Old America]

Say what you will, the man knows the game. None of the other candidates knows more about the Constitution than Ron Paul. If you go by the Constitution, he is the only one that would act like a President per the Constitution. Mitt is a slimebag. He is funded by the big banks and is bought and sold. Newt is a progressive and wants to be Emperor (much like Alexander Hamilton). Michelle isn’t strong enough (sorry). Perry is an idiot and would be torn apart by Obama and his media dogs. Huntsman is Obama’s man. That leaves Santorum and Ron Paul. Of the others, I find Santorum the least objectionable even though he is so forgettable. Ron Paul is the only one out there offering to restore the liberties we have lost, reform programs that are bankrupting us, eliminate Federal agencies which are legislating through regulations, return troops from wars which were never declared (if we want to go to war, Congress should grow a pair), fix the Federal Reserve, get us out of the UN and NATO which are only there to entangle us into a world government, and cut a trillion dollars out of our deficit. Who else wants to actually do all this? If we do not start to reverse the trend, we’re going to end up with the society in 2084: the Search for Love Hope and Faith. It’s that simple. I think he can win. Republicans will vote against Obama, he’ll steal some young vote, independents will vote for him, and some Democrats will choose him. Think for yourselves. Get off Exultant!