Paul maintains his lead

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state.  Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.

Although Romney's support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul's 9%. It's certainly still close enough that he could win, but there's nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney's biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.

In a development that probably no one would have expected a year ago Romney is winning big with regular Fox News viewers, getting 27% to 16% for Gingrich, 15% for Bachmann, and just 12% for Paul. But Paul leads Romney 38-13 with the 48% of likely caucus voters who don't regularly watch Fox News.

Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls.  His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul.  There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week.

Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He's also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%.  Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he's someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week.

One thing that's hurt Santorum's ability to really make a move is that the Evangelical vote is incredibly fragmented with 6 different candidates getting between 12 and 21%. Paul actually leads the way with that group at 21% to 16% for Romney and Bachmann, 15% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Perry.

Bachmann  leads the way with Tea Party voters 24-21 over Paul but the fact that you can be winning Tea Partiers but only in 4th place overall speaks to the diminished power of that movement compared to 2010 within the Republican electorate...only 26% of likely caucus voters consider themselves to be members.

Iowa looks like a 2 person race between Paul and Romney as the campaign enters its final week.  If Paul can really change the electorate by turning out all these young people and independents who don't usually vote in Republican caucuses, he'll win. If turnout ends up looking a little bit more traditional, Romney will probably prevail. And given all the strange twists and turns to this point don't be surprised to see yet another surprise in the final week...and based on the innards of this poll the person best positioned to provide that surprise in the closing stretch is Santorum.

Full results here

Comments

[lonnie lawson]

RON PAUL 2012!!!

[me.yahoo.com/a/E8cgHOgsyd3AaH1t2GiR8vDgjz0-]

GOP frontrunners sure have a short shelf life.

[me.yahoo.com/a/E8cgHOgsyd3AaH1t2GiR8vDgjz0-]

PPP should consider a tracking poll for New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, so we can measure the bounce Iowa will have on the field in subsequent primaries.

[Urielsword]

Thank you for your hard work and keeping us up to date!

[mrearlygold]

The reason the mainstream republicans have not supported Ron Paul is because Ron Paul really does put the people first, over party politics. And he has shown a 30 year track record of following the Constitution, something that none of the other candidates can say. If the people realized this they would come out in droves and vote for this man who sounds like a founding father. Wake up GOP! If you truly want the giant tent and a much larger party, Dr Paul is the man to do it!

[April Braun]

Ron Paul for FREEDOM!

[mrearlygold]

Just think, if the GOP regulars would come off there high horses and support Ron Paul, Obama be destroyed in a landslide with Dr Paul taking all the republican votes, a big percentage of the independents and even democrats! Thsi would secure a bright republican future. Why aren't they dissing we the people?
What's going on here?

[Cornelius]

Is there a breakdown on the Democrats and independents? What percent consider themselves progressive or liberal vs. moderate or conservative?
Here's something to consider: http://progressivesforronpaul.blogspot.com/2011/12/final-post-prior-to-iowa-caucuses.html

[Dustin Ingalls]

We're already doing a NH tracker. Released the first one last week, the same day as the IA poll.

[Al]

So, Paul doesn't have a ceiling, just a floor, of 18%.

That's what happens when you've got more full-time campaigners for free than what any other candidate could ever hire with bailout money that the big banks pass him.

[Bill S. Preston]

Minnesota, Colorado and Michigan are important and early too (all in Feb). I'd like to see polls begin to come out of there as well.

[freedom lover]

Ron Paul for FREEDOM! F*CK THE ESTABLISHMENT PIGS!

[Arron Thorn]

'In a development that probably no one would have expected a year ago Romney is winning big with regular Fox News viewers, getting 27% to 16% for Gingrich, 15% for Bachmann, and just 12% for Paul. But Paul leads Romney 38-13 with the 48% of likely caucus voters who don't regularly watch Fox News.'

not surprising given the biased and misleading reporting of Ron Paul on Fox news. Just another example of the mindless masses believing everything spoon fed to them by the media.

[chuck]

Santorum!....Good punch line. Ron Paul. Florida.

[JR]

Ron Paul is the one candidate that can literally run over Obama in a head to head debate. The two are diametrically in opposition to one another. Constitutionalism and free markets vs Marxism and heavy regulation. This is a battle for the ages, literally! The current administration knows the one candidate they can't win against is Ron Paul. Ron Paul will only have to unravel the scroll of Obama's own actions over the last 3+ years and the nation will hear the fat lady sing!

[mick]

Obama is seriously more adult and competent than Ron Paul. Iowa voted for Robertson and they may very well vote for Paul, but the grown ups will eventually have to decide the primary.

[Mike]

RON PAUL 2012

[steve]

Ron Paul 2012!!

[Jeppe Toft]

It would be fantastic if Paul could catch momentum after winning Iowa!

[Jason Cole]

Ron Paul 2012, indeed!

[dave]

How the hell does Bachmann have 11%?

[rob83]

REPORTING IN FROM NH, RON PAUL 2012.

ANYBODY ELSE IS A COMPLETE JOKE.

[Kyuupimayo]

Rorororororororo Rooooooon Paaaaaaaaul 2012

[JBD]

Is anybody but Romney about to become Anybody But Ron Paul?

If I had to choose between Ron Paul and Barack Obama without "none of the above" with a ban for all other candidates if none of the above wins I'd elect suicide.

{^_^}

[Marissa Woolsey]

RON PAUL, 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From Austin, TX.

[Billy C]

As a foreigner with an interest in U.S politics Ron Paul looks to me like the only candidate who doesn't come across as completely off the wall. I don't agree with all of his policies but they seem logical, consistent and principled. The fact that Bachman is even in the race at all is truly disturbing. Good luck America I hope he ends ups as the candidate for the rest of the worlds sakes

[chris]

why is it newt and mitt have to scramble to justify their actions and positions where as dr.paul has said the same thing for the last 30 years and has a proven voting record to show where the others cant say that.no dirt on him vote paul and you vote for a real chance for this countrys future of being free

[Ron Paul Wins]

Ron Paul all the way !

[Jay Tea]

No doubt Romney is winning among Fox News viewers because Fox News has basically volunteered it's entire network to campaign for Romney...

[Dan]

Ron Paul is the only politician I see that can't be bought or bullied by his party or special interest groups. The man wants a 40k salary instead of 400k if he is president. His principles and track record whether you agree with him or not haven't change in the past 30 years, all this man wants to do is help this country that he loves so much. I firmly believe he is the man to do it.

Texas here, Ron Paul 2012.

[David V]

that is only because he is the only person that doesn't seem like a complete butt and wants to go to war against Iran, the guy has charisma. But Ron Paul has reasoning and truth I which he has more charisma, but I will take Reasoning a Truth any day. Moises could no speak in public yet see what he did.
I pray for this elections and that the freedom that this country signifies and was founded for stands above all.

[Mr. Liberty]

God bless Ron Paul, and God bless America !

[Vet4RonPaul]

It is truly a shame that the GOP does not recognize that if they want to be around in another decade they need to embrace the younger voters and that Ron Paul has a connection with the younger voters. Looks like the GOP would rather die a slow death than admit that Ron Paul is the best candidate for conservatives. He is pro-peace, pro-freedom, pro-life, pro-right-to-bear-arms and anti-NYC-bankster bailouts. What is not to like?! Finally, I'm a veteran and the troops and vets don't want another ChickenHawk Commander In Chief like Obama, Romney or Gingrich.

[Lol]

Looks like Dr. Paul's old fashioned combination of racism, homophobia and right-wing conspiracy theory paranoia is catching fire with the John Birch Society folks in rural Iowa. Go Ron Paul!

[dinglebells]

America don't fuck this up again. Europe is watching you closely.

[Jane]

"I think this fence business is designed and may well be used against us and keep us in. In economic turmoil, the people want to leave with their capital. And there’s capital controls and there’s people control. So, every time you think of fence keeping all those bad people out, think about those fences maybe being used against us, keeping us in."

So who said that? Ron Paul. He's batshit crazy and everyone in Iowa who recognizes that should turn out for the caucuses and bring all your like minded friends.

[PVC Bending]

Ron Paul 2012. If you're in Iowa and you're not completely bamboozled, get out to the caucuses. If you're in another state down the road, start talking to caucus goers and let them know where to stand.

[Heimy]

On 12/28 @ 1:53 am Mick said that adults will decide the primary. What an insulting statement. A client of mine told me that his son teaches on Saipan. He then began reminiscing about that WWII island battle which cost 3,000 American lives and over 10,000 wounded. He shocked me with the statement that the age of most of the causulties were under 20, many of them 17 years old. Mick, don't underestimate the courage, passion and power of young men and women who fight and sacrifice for a cause they belive in. They'll win the day rolling right over those old bones of yours!!!!

[jtsgrandmom]

Incredible how convinced the FoxNewsbots are that it's Paul supporters (aka Constitutional/sovereign nation supporters) who are the "bots." I LOVE how Fox insists that an RP win catapults Romney into first place. lol BTW, as far as investigative journalism being alive and well at Fox, for all their bellyaching about Obama's eligibility, they have not vetted their Romney guy, (whose father was a card carrying member if the global governance advocate) CFR or that said George Romney was born a Mexican national and is therefore not eligible on the same grounds BHO is not.

[jtsgrandmom]

"77% of his voters are firmly committed to him.."
The committment of RP voters has the GOP on full steam smear machine. They understand the numbers and those numbers say that the GOP simply can not win without the RP voters. These numbers have turned the tables on the GOP, finally and demonstrate that the GOP needs us but we don't need the GOP. Ultimately, those who vote FOR Ron Paul are also voting AGAINST BOTH parties. And about time we have backed gov't against that brick wall.

[Cornelius]

There are very good strategic reasons for progressives to infiltrate the GOP caucuses and primaries. Here are the big ones:
http://progressivesforronpaul.blogspot.com/2011/12/what-is-green-republican-coalition.html

[Heimy]

Reply to Lol 12/28 @ 10:07 AM who commented that Ron Paul is racist and homophobic:

"Libertarianism is the enemy of all racism, because racism is a collectivist idea that you put people in categories. You say, well blacks belong here, and whites here, and women here and we don't see people in forms..or gays. You don't have rights because you're gay, or women or minorities, you have rights because you’re an individual. So we see people strictly as individuals. We get these individuals in a natural way. So it's exactly opposite of all collectivism and it's absolutely anti-racism because we don't see it in those terms. "

-Ron Paul on Bill Moyers Journal, January 4, 2008, 14 minutes, 50 seconds. http://youtu.be/R2r29HcH5nA

[bryan]

Ron Paul has approximately 7% to 10% more that what any poll shows. He will win Iowa in a Ronslide, provided Iowa GOP doesn't commit fraud like it did in 1996 with Buchanan. You can stop them! http://www.watchthevote2012.com/ Vote Ron Paul. Video and Photo document the results of your precinct. It's time to stop big media and big government from trying to 'Select' our next president!

[SEEEEANNNN]

Ron Paul's candidacy is showing just how bad the system is - the media that (trys) to control the American public. RP 2012.

[The Rev]

Ron Paul won't get in no matter what you idiots think. He's so batshit crazy he's unelectable he will murder this country with his insane ideas and expose to to more threats.

[realnrh]

Hint: A polling website's comment section is not a useful place to campaign. Babbling 'RON PAUL 2012!!!' as the full text of a comment does not convince anyone of anything other than the cult that L. Ron Hu... ahem, that Ron Paul has formed. If you have a meaningful content-bearing comment to make, by all means, contribute. If not, spend your energy sharing the poll with other people instead of wasting space.

An example comment on the poll that contains content: "How interesting that 7/9ths of Ron Paul's support comes from people who did not vote in the 2008 Republican primary. That could bode poorly for his actual performance relative to his poll numbers, since prior participation in voting tends to be a good indicator of reliability in future voting."

[Obama 2012]

If had told me a few months ago that Ron Paul would have a real shot at winning Iowa with a week to go I would have thought you were nuts.

Things could get real interesting...

[D Johnson]

Ron Paul supporters won't leave Paul's camp for anything. The GOP establishment knows they can't beat Obama without the Paul vote. If Paul is not the GOP candidate, most of his supporters will vote for Obama. I know I will. That way, we can look forward to Rand Paul in 2016, rather than having to wait until 2020. The corrupt hard-core GOP hard-liners better realize that if they choose anyone other than Ron Paul in 2012, that will be the end of the GOP in American politics forever. Either the GOP abandons empire, or America abandons them. Either way, America wins.

[Stewart in Oregon]

Anyone who really thinks Ron Paul is crazy or racist is focusing on meaningless details and not thinking pragmatically. So the guy likes to toss around ideas and he's made the mistake of letting some bozos write for his newsletter. Stop pretending like this crap matters more than it does. Look at the policy he's laid out, and tell me that's not what we need as soon as possible.

What's really crazy is where this country will be if typical democrat and GOP candidates remain in control. Go ahead and vote for them and see what happens to this country.

[Ssupak]

I'm sure all your Paulistas are aware of Ron's quote that the Federal government should protect our right to do what we want with out bodies? Then why does he think abortion is the most important issue facing America today (yes, he actually said that)? Why does he think it would be OK to let states force women to have their rapists' babies?

But please, yes, vote for Paul. I'd love to see him debate Obama. He can explain why he thinks women don't deserve to have the feds protect their right to do with their body what they want. Maybe he'll explain the best method for states to force women to have babies, since he's an OBGYN. Should we strap them down, or just throw them in a cage?

[Cinemafreak]

JR, what on earth are you talking about? Obama is in no way a Marxist. I can't believe this cult like attitude with Ron Paul supporters. This is a left leaning polling site and still all the batshit Ron Paul supporters come on here and spam the place. I'm not a supporter of Obama but please, don't make the argument that he is a Marxist because anyone who makes that false claim loses all credibility with everything they say. And over regulation? There has been less regulations under Obama than there was in the 1990s and 1980s. Look it up.

Constitutionalism? No, not really. Its more, Jeffersonian vs. Moderate Democrat. That is it. Free-Markets? A Free-market is a utopia that has never been tried. Not even the most Capitalist areas, not even Hong Kong or Singapore are free-markets, there is still government involvement and government regulation and taxes/fee's.

[Frank Cacossa]

A Golden Opportunity is here America! Please don't mess
it up.Educate everyone you know about Ron Paul and ask for their unwavering support!

PRESIDENT RON PAUL 2012!!!!!!

[Bachmann '12]

What are Congresswoman Bachmann's numbers with younger voters? We Ask America has her getting 50% of 18-24 year olds.

[Independent Thought]

@Stewart, you live in Oregon what are you worried about?

Oregon will always allow abortions, as the people get to decide what the State laws are, instead of the Federal government who does not represent the people anymore.

Believe it or not, there are some states that have PEOPLE that want abortion laws. That should be their right to vote as such.

There is no one size fits all solution, and to try to force your way of thinking on all states without recognizing the differences among people is pretty bigoted.

[aaron]

Ron Paul! from Wisconsin.

[Stewart in Oregon]

Ssupak, Ron Paul is pro-life but as he's said a million times, he wants to leave it up to the states to decide. He recognizes that this sort of legislation shouldn't be happening on a federal level, even if he personally believes that abortion is wrong. That's why you should be rooting for him. The other GOP candidates are the greater threat to women's reproductive rights. Here's what hard line pro-lifers think of Ron Paul (spoiler: they're not fans):
http://prolifeprofiles.com/ronpaul

We are never going to get the whole country to agree, in unison, on abortion or gay rights or many other issues. The only sensible way forward is to let states decide. Besides, that's how it was supposed to work in the first place.

[GOP62959]

I'm liking Rick Santorum more and more.

[Mad.Patriot]

What does a President do? Last time I checked, they go on vacation 2 weeks out of the month on tax payer dollars during a "recession", apologize to communist countries on behalf of America, start wars in countries that don't even have electricity (lol) and ram unconstitutional legislature through Congress. It seems like we could save lots of money and get rid of some immediate problems if we just get rid of Presidents period. Y'all have to at least agree that we don't need a VP. I mean, Biden is like the invisible man. With the exception of infrequently slinking out of the shadows to say something stupid, I can't say that I know of one thing that he has accomplished (or even tried to accomplish) in 3+ years.

While we are at it, why don't we just abolish government on the federal level entirely? I don't know about any of you, but I don't acknowledge "The Hill" as having any relevance in my life what-so-ever. It's all a giant pyramid scheme (no pun intended). The fact that we ever agreed to allow disassociated elites to have any power at all over "the common man" is amazing to me. How is that freedom? Freedom would be if NO ONE had the power to make you do anything.

In 2012 lets vote that we don't want a President anymore. It's not very realistic, but it can't be worse than the garbage we are already stuck with.

[Sammy]

Nobody is perfect. However, the choice is pretty clear:

Ron Paul vs. Newt/Mitt/Obama

That is if you just listen carefully what each of them are saying and do you own research that includes TV, Internet as well as each candiadate's voting records. The choice is all yours.

[Vince Lisanti]

I am glad to see that you included Buddy Roemer in this Iowa poll. I hope to see his name in the next NH poll since that is the state he has been doing all of his campaigning.

Buddy Roemer is the only candidate that does not accept PAC and Super PAC funds and limits his campaign contributions to 100.00 per person. He is doing this to put the power back in the hands of the American People and take it away from the Special Interests.

He is the only candidate that would be FREE TO LEAD!

[Skip]

@Ssupak

It seems your strained logic likely comes from a brain still developing, so, we will give you the benefit of the doubt. The 'force women to have their rapist's babies' is such a red herring. You should well know that under 2% of all abortions are performed to rid mothers of their fetuses because of rape or incest The vast majority (74%)say the reason they are seeking an abortion is, "Having a baby would dramatically change my life". (the cite is below)

Just a little late don't you think?

So dear child, be free with your body. Jump in the rack consensually with someone if you wish, but just remember, if you come out with two bodies (yours and your baby's) all of the sudden it is no longer, "Just your body". You'll never get the good doctor, who celebrates life, to come down on the side of such a shallow selfish decision.

http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3711005.pdf

[Frank Dunningtn]

RON PAUL 2012

[George]

Dream on Paul supporters! Rick Santorum 2012!