Paul leads in Iowa

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa.  He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.


Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row.  His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%.  And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa.  22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.  Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest.  Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich.  He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.  Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul.  Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul.   It's particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he's the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

In addition to having more support right now Paul also has firmer support (73% solidly committed) than Romney does (68% solidly committed.) But at the same time Romney appears to have more room for growth, which could allow him to overtake Paul in the last two weeks.

Two other notes on Romney: he's now winning the electability primary- 25% of voters think he would have the best chance to defeat Obama compared to 17% for Gingrich and 16% for Paul. And he also leads Paul 24-18 among voters who watched the Sioux City debate on Thursday night, confirming general perception that he had the stronger performance.

The rest of the field isn't getting much traction. Among the three candidates tied at 10%, Santorum has gained a couple points compared to last week, Perry has moved up a single point, and Bachmann is down a point. There is some indication that Iowans are warming up to Perry a little bit. He's gone from a -4 (43/47) favorability to a +8 (48/40).

With six candidates in double digits there are still a lot of different things that could happen the final two weeks in Iowa. But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners.

Full results here

Comments

[Levi C]

YES!! RON PAUL!!!

[FordGTGuy]

Want to help celebrate this news!

Well you have 30 minutes left to help Ron Paul's Money Bomb hit 4 Million!

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/ !!!!!!

$30,000 to GO!

[John W.]

This is going to turn everything upside down if it pans out.

[Ryan]

YES YES YES YES YES

[George]

People are starting to wake up!

Ron Paul 2012

[Brandon]

Ron Paul for 2012! Restore Liberty!

Now much the establishment attempt to downplay this win!

[KG Perrys]

They said Paul didn't have "room for growth" when he was polling close to single digits.

[aaron]

Go Ron!

[longshotlouie]

The man with two first names will shock the world!

Amateur Hour Is Over!

[Mike Johnson]

Fantasic news. Hopefully Paul can keep up the good work.

[Eric011]

Ron Paul is the last honest man in washington and the only who stands strong for his belief and not money from special interest groups nor lobbyist.

[Dave Infinger]

I will be voting for Dr. Ron Paul. I am a veteran who served in the military for over 23 years. Ron Paul has struck a cord in me that has never happened in my lifetime.

Vote for a man who loves his Country and who will do what he says he will do.

[Carson Hopper]

there's a light at the end of the tunnel finally, America the Republic might show its face once more.

[Kollin Curtis]

Ron Paul 2012!

[DerekB]

Brilliant!

[Buck]

would love to see ron paul go up against obama in a national debate. the american people's head would explode.

[LMAO!]

HAHA! Poli-GAF am madddddd.

[David]

Dean-

How confident are you in this turnout model? You have only 55% of likely caucus goers as 2008 Republican caucus goers.

Is that typical in any primary or election? Did you poll Iowa in 2008?

Thanks
David

[Jason Sipes]

4 Million!

[Petitericia]

Ron Paul R3VOLUTION 2012!

[Edwin Waters]

At least Paul is not a flip flopper like Romney. Keep it up Ron Paul!

[Tony Isaacs]

Is the hissing sound you hear:

A) The air coming out of the artificially inflated balloon of the latest neocon flavor of the week Gingrich (hot air at that)?

B) Rupert Murdoch and Fox News?

C) Hannity, Wallace, Limbaugh, and the other neocon pundits?

D) Ben Bernanke?

E) All of the above?

[josh]

I just donated to the Ron Paul money bomb and helped put us over $4 million for the day. Let's keep running hard all the way to victory!

[Mike]

Paul will be destroyed once his insane past gets put out into the public. But you Paulbots keep the faith!

[Charles Carter]

"But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners."

So does this finally mean the MSM will have to admit its a two man race between Paul and Romney? Will the MSM ever give Ron Paul his due props?

Ron Paul 2012!

[John C. Randolph]

Romney and Newt have nothing but name recognition. Dr. Paul has principles. Looks like we're finally at a point where that matters.

-jcr

[Joshua Hurst]

if i could turn this into a bowl of cereal and feed it to Rush after his morning hydrocodones i'd pour him a big ol heaping helping

[daniel]

folks we are going to win this thing , but let the flood gates open at the msm headquarters ..

[hipsterkid]

fucking loser wanna be hipsters

[Rob]

For me there is no other candidate than Ron Paul. He to me epitomizes who is needed for my seemingly lost nation.

[Lisa]

Thanks for everyone that is making this possible. RON PAUL 2012!!!

[e]

ron paul!

[Libertarian American]

LEGALIZE FREEDOM!!!! RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT!!! :-D

[Jon]

Wow, my latent and hopeless pro-Ron Paul tendencies may actually get a chance to be translated into a vote in 2012! Awesome news. Glad Republicans finally got tired of the guy who says the judicial branch is irrelevant.

[Deboran]

This a great! Ron Paul is the candidate with lots and lots of room to grow, as he appeals to wide and varied groups & has a large,and determined base of supporters including twice as many active military as all of the other candidates put together.

Romney, however, not so much. He panders, and really does flip flop depending on the audience. He is owned by Goldman Sachs & Credit Suisse, who brought down the economy, demanded bail outs, have ties to the military industrial complex, own most of the media, and own most of the corrupt government representatives. He would be more of the same on steroids. Every time Goldman Sachs would sneeze, Romney would give us a nationwide cold. The corporations who own him would find a reason for another war, and Romney would ask "how soon do you need that". We can't afford more of the same.
Once people realize that Romney is a tool for the banksters and crooks, he's done.

VOTE For RON PAUL 2012

[Adam]

Yay! Go Ron go! Don't hold back people, now is the time to step everything up!

Viva la R[evol]ution!

[Patrick Rowe]

MEIN GOTT!!!! Get the slander machines going full speed. We must stop him before he restores the constitution!!! Call my head of proaganda!!!! The corporation military complex must be saved!!!!! (Said while chewing on the carpet in my secret underground lair)

[Spiny Norman]

The Paul supporters here will be delighted to know who their comrades are.

[John]

Ron Paul is the president we are all going to die remembering.

I really hope the best for the future. It's a shame to have worry about your grandkids' prosperity in your 20's.

I don't know if the world will get better, hopefully it will, maybeit won't. Our job is just to give it our best shot.

Ron Paul, in 2012...please.

[Spiny Norman]

To wit: http://patriotboy.blogspot.com/2011/12/ron-paul-choice-of-proudly-white.html

[Dan]

Oh yeah, that reminds me. I need to go switch my party affiliation and register Republican so I can vote for the most inspiring politician of our time!

[Bryan Reed]

RON PAUL!

[JeffnDallas]

The reason Paul doesn't register well as a "second choice" is that those who support Ron Paul simply ONLY SUPPORT Ron Paul. There is no "second option".

Onward to New Hampshire then down "south" where Mitt is going to REALLY have a difficult time (S.C. and FL).

[Ghassan Gammoh]

RON PAUL!!!! 2012!!! i love you so much!!!

[Wesley]

Ron Paul all the way to the white house !!!!!

[kimi]

yay!

[Obama 2012]

Holy crap. Gingrich fading like this... this quickly... in Iowa...

can it be that Ron Paul will be the final anti-Romney? And where would the GOP electorate fall if that were the case?

Very interesting situation...

(although I should say that ultimately I see this as very good news for one person: Mitt Romney.)

[PatriotOne]

Ron Paul gets his donations from the People, the rest are corporate bank'ster funded. Ron Paul's special interest is the Constitution for the United States of America being enforced upon every elected and employees government official...

[PatriotOne]

Spiny Norman <- is a prejudice commu-nazi and should be banned from posting his hatred towards mankind...

[1proof]

Canadian here cheering for Ron Paul!

[Nonie]

Ron Paul will get his bootay handed to him going up against obama in the general election. This country will not elect no extreme libetarian to run this country. That will not happen in 2012. If Paul lucks up and gets the nomination, LOOKOUT REPUBLICANS the GOP will be permanently ruined. It will be an electoral sweep by Obama and the democrats and they will get the house back and keep the senate and obama will get reelected. So I really hope Ron Paul is the candidate it would serve the GOP right. They would get what they deserve.

[Josh McNattin]

Four million dollars that he can devote to exposing what a twit Romney is!!!

[Emmie]

Ron Paul is the ONLY one who will steal Democrat voters from Obama.

[Emmie]

Would LOVE to see a Ron Paul / Judge Andrew Napolitano ticket!

[Norman Shafer]

I too will be voting for Dr. Ron Paul. I am a veteran who served in the military for over 22 years. Ron Paul has struck a cord in me that has never happened in my lifetime.

Vote for a man who loves his Country and who will do what he says he will do.

[Leo for Liberty...]

Finally, We Have A Clear Choice and a Chance for Peace...
No More "Lesser of the devil..."

The American People Will Prevail!

[Charlotte Juett]

I gave and will give again until Ron Paul is the President of these United States.

[Silk Eotd]

Please America, get it together and vote Ron Paul. I think he's the last chance your country has to dig your way out of the pit your country is falling into! Signed a concerned Canadian

[Jay]

Mike: you do realize that, unlike other candidates, Paul's past is out there without any doubt, right? When people subscribe to Paul's ideas, they know exactly what they're getting. Us "paulbots" like to complain about his speaking time in debates but really, he does it to himself. If only he had to explain some flip-flops or something, he might get the same amount of time.

[MJS]

I hear the sound of the GOP going down in 2012 with RINO Romney

[Mayday]

How about that for a "Top Tier" Fox News? Come on Dr Ron Paul we need you, and so does the world. Texas vet for Ron Paul 2012 and beyond!!

[Anthony]

Dream on Paulbots. Dream on for two more weeks and then have a rude awakening when the actual voting takes place.

[Vince Bodie]

Spiny Norman, I'm not even going to bite.

Why don't you go trolling on a KRS-One or Public Enemy board?

(Oh, wait KRS and Professor Griff are both Dr. Paul supporters, as are the late Patrice O'Neal, civil rights icon Dick Gregory, the head of the NAACP in Dr. Paul's own district, economists Walter Williams and Thomas Sowell, Immortal Technique, and tons of people with similar melatonin levels on YouTube and out in the general public are also fans.)

How about you just stopping taking our tax money to spread this BS and get a real job? That would be the noble thing to do.

[David]

RON PAUL 2012!!!

[Dave Henning]

I can't wait for the YouTube mashup of all the idiot pundits and GOP folks saying that Ron Paul can't win, is a joke, is a fringe candiate, etc.

It will be as ten times better than the the old "Peter Schiff Was Right" classic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

[endif]

I find it highly disturbing that people think Ron Paul or his policies will 'restore liberty', when his market fundamentalist policies are the same GOP policies that crashed the economy and resulted in record income disparity between the rich and everyone else.. but worse.

[James]

Woohoo!!! GO RON PAUL!!!

[Ron Paul for President]

It's not enough to say "Vote Ron Paul"
In order for Dr.Paul to win, HE NEEDS THE PRIMARY. That's the toughest part.
IF YOU WANT TO VOTE IN PRIMARY YOU HAVE TO BE REGISTERED REPUBLICAN! If you don't switch parties in time, (3 months ahead in some states from now) YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE!!
Go to BLUEREPUBLICAN(dot)ORG and register ASAP! Copy and paste this everywhere!

[Vince Bodie]

"Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little"

Why, as if he isn't infinitely more qualified than the others? Name one other candidate who can unite Americans the way he does. I'm waiting...

The other "major" candidates are all so severely lacking in qualifications, character, or both, as to be laughable (Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson aren't considered "major" candidates, which should tell you something - that neither of them has any flaws large enough to be exploited for future gain. They therefor they aren't given the opportunity to interrupt "business as usual" by trying to apply the original rules to the game).

Paul blasts right through all of this with aplomb. It's his ideas that matter, not his campaign. Ideas last, campaigns fade away.

[Art Gmurowski]

Ron Paul for President!!!!!

No more bailouts for the banks!

[Thomas Payne]

'NAACP President: Ron Paul Is Not A Racist'

http://www.nolanchart.com/article1134-naacp-president-ron-paul-is-not-a-racist.html

[Kyle Hillinger]

Brilliant!!!

Still, we need to stay the course; do not let our guard down.
We still have a ways to go, but this is still a big boost!

For Liberty!

[Roy]

Ahhh! The smearing begins...

And people call Dr. Paul supporters names - who is really 'deluded' now?

[James Ball]

Congratulations Dr. Paul! I agree w/very little of what he says... I am a Democrat. At the same time, I have a great deal of respect for candidates like Dr. Ron Paul. Candidates with strong convictions & stiff spines, with the ability to hold firm on their positions...when the political gloves come off. Dr. Paul is the only candidate running for the Republican Nomination that will do what he says... He believes in what he says on the campaign trail. Now, it's showing up in the poll numbers. Courage is paying off in Iowa, where retail politics matters. Good Luck to the Paul Campaign.

[Jim Pevehouse]

Ron Paul represents what "We the People" sorely need; Freedom, Justice, Liberty and Peace.

[JohnnyinthePedros]

Ron Paul or Busted!

[Richard E Pina jR]

I believe this is our last chance too get our
Once great nation back ... I live in RI ,and
I will do anything too help .. I started today
With calling friends and family members to talk
About Mr Paul, I too am a veteran ... I joined
The US Army in 72 ... he's our only chance ..
I will not vote for anybody but Mr Paul ... Please
Take back our country , and best of luck .., merry
Christmas ...

[Netzorro]

Ignore Ron Paul at the peril of our Republioc!
We MUST win this battle folks!

[Netzorro]

Opps typo, should be Republic.

[Calebgrayson]

isn't funny how the MSM says RP isn't electable but they keep asking him if he's going to go independent? think about it. if RP has all that power with independents and anti-Obama Dems, so much so that they're actually afraid if he were to go indy he'd destroy the Rep's chances of winning, then wouldn't that make him the MOST electable candidate?!?! independents + anti-Obama Dems + Republicans = a sure win. Rep's have GOT to nominate RP if they have any chance of winning...but then they don't see RP as the kind of Republican that would baby all their special interests.
if RP is NOT nominated, i'm writing him in. i'd rather vote from principle than have to choose between two great evils. that kind of wimping out is what's gotten us into this mess in the first place.

[Jake]

If Ron Paul can do this well in spite of ALL the media blackout, distortion and personal attacks, IMAGINE how popular he should have been at this point! But to surge in the face of all of it is TRULY revealing his appeal. The truth can no longer be ignored . . . Ron Paul for the long haul!!!

[Jerry Alexander]

I love the way Paul`s so called Friend (Neil Cavuto(sp) ask him a question about some races writings that has been answered many times,just to put some Negative spin on Paul.I guess that`s all they can find.Neil Cavuto is more Two Face than all the others put together....except Chris Wallace,whom is a total Freak of Nature.

[Richard E Pina jR]

A vote for Ron Paul is a vote in my opion
In saying our nation ... A vote for anybody
Else is going to be a vote for more of the
Same Ron Paul is a trusted American ...
He's for saving our liberties , he's for smaller
Government ,and most importantly he's for
Cutting our national debt , and balancing
Our budget .. Gon Paul 2012

[Gman]

So PPP is the only one that has Paul up. Every other polling firm has him 3rd. Rasmussen has always seem to have predicted the winner.

Of all the conservatives I know, who are all pretty hard core, they said if Paul wins the nomination they will vote for Obama. As will I.

[Shannon]

This is great. Ron Paul is the greatest president since Kennedy.

[Chris Nichols]

^^^^^ http://www.nolanchart.com/article1134-naacp-president-ron-paul-is-not-a-racist.html

[Richard E Pina jR]

Ron Paul for PRESIDEN ...he's been voting
For the same principles for several decades ..
You want a trustworthy person , Ron Paul
Is that candidate ... He governs by the
Constitution , the only candidate that'll do so
Mr Paul is for lowering taxes , abolishing
The capital gain tax , and smaller government
Ron Paul is the only choice ... Ron Paul 2012

[Lillian Bradley]

I take it back America, you are not stupid.

[Greg62656]

The Tea Party Birthday Money Bomb is still going on. You can get there from here http://www.dailypaul.com/ Merry Christmas & Happy New Year.

[James]

Wow breathtaking! He's exactly what the US needs!!

[verkor]

Man, you would think most older people (espcially those inclined to believe the MSM) would learn by now to stop voting. I mean is it not enough that through their ignorant choices they RUINED this nation.

[Richard E Pina jR]

Ron Paul ,the canitdate that will beat Obamba ... On principles
alone , he'll defeat Obamba ... Ron Paul has one thing that Obamba
Doesn't have , a record of voting , Without Flip Flopping , and most
Inportantly , he's been honest ... The people have no faith in our
Politians , in Mr Paul , the people do ... That is why he'll beat Obamba
In 2012 ... Ron Paul has my vote , and I'll continue speaking for our
Next president ...

[valleyforge]

Spiny, you can't stop people from supporting you. The Occupy crowd was supported by Communists, Nazis, White Supremacists, and Nancy Pelosi. I don't agree with them, but if any of them want to vote for restoring liberty and help defeat Obama I won't complain.

[Bill Duke]

Want some of this then vote for Romney.
In 1992, Mitt Romney was running Bain Capital, a private equity firm. Bain Capital bought American Pad & Paper Co. (Ampad) for $5 million.

Over the next several years Romney's firm bled the company dry. Hundreds of workers lost their jobs. Stockholders were left with worthless shares. Creditors and vendors were paid less than 50 cents on the dollar. While they were exploiting the company, Romney's firm charged Ampad millions of dollars in "management fees." In all, Romney and his investors reaped more than $100 million dollars from the deal.

[Richard E Pina jR]

Ron Paul for president 2012 all the way too the white house...

[Pete Odonez]

Yeah Ron Paul or nothing! He always has my support with words and $$.
Cheers to all my fellow freedom lovers.
Pete

[Jay]

If it weren't for Ron Paul's foreign policy, he would probably get the nomination. However, isolationism was fine for the 1800s and early 1900s. It's just not a feasible policy anymore with the world of nuclear weapons and people that don't want to abide by civilized rules of behavior. Romney looks like the candidate to go up against Obama and it's going to be a close general election. Obama clearly can't be re-elected on his own record. He is going to have to destroy Romney to have any chance of winning which means the American People are going to see about the worst Presidential race in history unfold.

[Bill Mitchell]

Haha are you kiddng me? This poll is the biggest load your pathetic excuse for a polling firm has ever published. After his clearly insane performance in the last debate you would have us believe that Paul is poised to win Iowa? What a joke. No.wonder the Paulbots think of your forum as their home turf.

[Fel]

Is this a Paul fan site? Didn't know that.

[Bill Mitchell]

Too bad no other polls even come close to confirming these numbers.