Paul closes in on Gingrich

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.


Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31).  There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:

-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18.  But among the 41% of likely voters who are 'new' for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%.  Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven't done this before.

-He's also very strong with young voters.  Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich.  With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.

-Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.

Young voters, independents, and folks who haven't voted in caucuses before is an unusual coalition for a Republican candidate...the big question is whether these folks will really come out and vote...if they do, we could be in for a big upset.

Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are.  77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich.  Romney has much more solid support than Gingrich as well, 67% of his voters saying they're with him for the long haul. Among only voters who say their mind's totally made up, 29% support Paul to 21% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 11% for Bachmann.

Romney's staying right in place. He was at 16% last week and he's at 16% this week. His net favorability was a +4 spread last week and it's a +4 spread this week.  Gingrich's support is declining in Iowa but Romney's not gaining, just as he failed to gain when Cain and Perry and Bachmann collapsed before. One statistic that really jumps out- only 44% of Romney's supporters from 2008 say they plan to vote for him again. If he was even just retaining all his support from last time around he'd be in the lead.

Like Romney, there's been little change in Michele Bachmann's standing over the last week.  Her favorability was +21 (56/35). Now it's +18 (55/37). She's gone from 13% support to 11%.

Rick Perry generated a ton of attention in the last week with his ad decrying the repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' and the 'War on Christmas,' but it hasn't done much for his poll standing.  He was at 9% and he's still at 9%.  His favorability numbers are under water with 43% of likely voters viewing him favorably to 47% with a negative opinion. The only Republican who's less well regarded is Jon Huntsman. Only 41% of Iowa Republicans even oppose gays serving in the military to 28% who support it and 31% unsure...and Perry's only tied for fourth even with those who are opposed, behind Gingrich, Bachmann, and Paul.

Other Notes:

-52% of likely voters claim to have watched the debate in Des Moines on Saturday night. Although I'm skeptical that many really watched, it does speak to how influential the debates have been in this race.

-Republicans continue to think Gingrich is the most electable candidate. 30% think it's him to 21% for Romney, and 14% for Paul with no one else in double digits.

-Here's a finding that helps explain why Mitt Romney's struggling so much: 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican establishment and an equal 31% have an unfavorable one with 38% unsure.  When Romney rolls out endorsement after endorsement, to a lot of voters that's actually coming across as a negative thing.  With those anti-establishment voters Paul's at 34% to 18% for Gingrich, 12% for Santorum, and only 10% for Romney.

-39% of voters think that Mitt Romney has stronger values to 18% for Newt Gingrich. 43% aren't sure and that's pretty telling.

-Finally we threw in a Tim Tebow favorability question for part of the field period.  He comes out at a net +35 (48/13), making him more popular than any of the actual candidates. Maybe in 2024...

Our next weekly Iowa poll with be out on Monday the 19th.

Full results here

Comments

[Jari Valladares]

No Ron Paul ! He is better than Ging but not better that Romney. @Matt - You are wrong budy. If you aint voting for Ron Paul get our heads examined. You Liberals are so funny. You will see that the end to the United States will come soon after Ron Paul takes office if he even makes it that far.

[Bill Mitchell]

"Bill has nothing of substance to offer to this discussion. Quit responding to him, and he will fade into the darkness, like all attention-seekers."

Wait, is this the "Ron Paul 2012" thread? I was under the impression this was the PPP thread. How can I be a "troll" when this isn't even a Ron Paul forum?

Also, you claim I lack substance. I simply quoted the other major polls showing this PPP a clear outlier. I didn't make these numbers up. How is that lacking in substance?

Paul is an interesting guy and has some interesting ideas but he has zero chance to be POTUS.

[Terry G Tate]

Ron Paul Has More Support Than Anyone, Because He Is A True American Statesman, Something None Of The Other Candidates Can Claim Or Even Come Close To, No Skeletons In The Closet, No Infidelities, He Votes On Issues With A Heartfelt Caring, And He Really Wants To Serve The American People. There Are People Out There Who Want To See Him Fail, Because They Are Afraid They Will Loose There Unemployment Bennies, Or Welfare Bennies, Or Some Type of Free Government Aid. These People Need To Get Off There Lazy Butts And Work And Take Care Of There Own Familes, Alot of Them Have Grown Up On The System And Know Nothing Else. End The Cycle And And Get A Job, There Are Jobs To Be Had Out Here. You Just Have To Have The Energy To Get Up And Sustain Yourself And Your Livlyhood.

[Obama 2012]

Matt - You don't help Ron Paul's cause by repeating tired right wing lies about Obama. You don't need to do that. Support Ron Paul based on what he believes. Repeating far right wing lunatic lies about Barack Obama only make you unbelievable.

[Dmitri]

"Also, you claim I lack substance. I simply quoted the other major polls showing this PPP a clear outlier. I didn't make these numbers up. How is that lacking in substance?

Paul is an interesting guy and has some interesting ideas but he has zero chance to be POTUS."

Bill, sorry but you don't have any. First you claim you didn't make these numbers up, well that's fine, but then you claim he has ZERO chance of winning ? Where did you get this number from, made this up yourself, great !

I have only 2 questions for you. First, how old are you and who do you support for president ?

[Gerry Bresnahan]

He's been consistent (and in my opinion "right") throughout his career. How can anybody compete with that?

Ron Paul is untouchable.

[Nan]

Hope Ran Paul win the 2012 president!! It is he that never tells lie. It is he that knows how economy works.

[Catholics for Ron Paul]

Awesome! We're with you ALL THE WAY DR. PAUL! GO RON PAUL 2012!!

[V]

Paul is the best choice for the presidency, and saving this country. Any other vote is insanity. He's the only competent, HONEST candidate.

[chim richalds]

bill mitchell: hahahahaha! democrats are registering as republicans just to vote for ron paul! you lose!

[Duncan]

Nancy, Rick Perry is clearly a moron barely even able to parrot the lines his campaign staff give him in uncontrolled (e.g. debate) formats. YOU'RE more qualified to be President than he is. He shouldn't even have been elected to Agriculture Commissioner, let alone President.

[realnrh]

Mention Ron Paul, and inevitably the Paultroons show up. It's very nice that they're engaging in the political process, and that they've found someone to support. He's certainly the only one in those debates who's been consistent in his positions, and a handful of those positions are reasonable and could be implemented without wreaking mass global chaos.

But a call for a return to 19th-century isolationism and economic policies and labor standards, and calling for eliminating the already-insufficient social safety net, and so on and so on, while at the same time rejecting Republican party orthodoxy, are not ever going to attract more than a relatively small fringe cult of dedicated believers. In a small, concentrated event open to all, they can have an impact, but he's got no chance whatsoever when that limited resource has to spread and the non-Republican elements are blocked from participating.

As a strategic plan, trying to get a libertarian elected President is a poor model. Go bottom-up; if you're that unhappy with Republican ideology, join the Libertarians, work at the grass-roots level to get Libertarians elected to local and state offices. Then once the infrastructure is in place, you can support a serious Presidential run. It doesn't work to have to recreate the party apparatus every four years; you need enough underlying mass and resources to continue functioning at the lower levels in the intervening time.

[jan benson]

I'm a Independent voter,voted for Bama in 2008.Like paul,his views and consistancy. My only question is,
can he compromise with any other views. Does he march
to the norquest mantra ,Death before Taxes?

[MJ]

Ron Paul is an intellectual with experience. There is no comparison that can equal him.

Now if you are impressed with a pompous bozo that is for hire to do whomever's bidding then another is your choice.

Ron Paul has been purposely discarded by FOX NEWS. The dismissive attitude only reflects badly on FOX and the believe-ability of the news anchors is now distrusted.

[Erwin Echavez]

Dear Fellow Conservatives in Iowa

On January 3, 2012 you are going to kick-off the GOP nomination process for our next POTUS candidate who we hope would restore and move America forward.

The rules in your State permit you to write down a potential Candidate's name even if they are not on the list of official "Runners" for the Nomination.

Your vote will be significant, as it is the first, and you will have no prior results to influence your decision. Instead, you could set the trend for the voting in States after yours.

You are in a unique position because, of all GOP voters nationwide, you can feel free to truly vote FOR a Candidate, or even write down your preferred potential Candidate, who may well respond to a Draft Petition in the future. You have the liberty to actually write down the name of a person you really believe in;

Who is NOT4SALE
Whose record shows they have never been 4SALE
Who can be trusted
Who has fought corruption successfully in the past
Who has the Steel Spine to cut spending and reduce the enormous National Debt
Who has the right ideas and expertise with respect to the development of American Energy Resources
Who believes in empowering the American Entrepreneur by keeping taxes low, thus powering up JOBS, and
Who can, and will get America thriving again.

You Constitutional Conservatives in IOWA have the liberty to choose freely and vote your American Heart. You can write down the name of the Leader whom you judge to be the best equipped to serve America, in these days of peril with respect to The Constitution, if you so choose.

You are exhorted to prayerfully consider your decision as never before and to VOTE ROGUE if you are led to do so, and to defy those in the Permanent Political Class, the GOP Establishment and the Media who would attempt to manipulate you into following the path that *they* deem to be best for America.

Constitutional Conservatives all over the country will be praying for you concerning the decision you will make, as January 3rd 2012 approaches. May Divine Providence have His Hand upon you as you discuss these weighty matters with others in your State and prepare to cast your most significant vote, that your decision will set in motion a series of events, culminating in American Leadership which once again brings Honor to Our Creator, from Whom our rights are received and Who is the source of all Blessing, Liberty and Freedom.

A fighting nation will be awaiting your decision, your leadership, in this Battle for Constitutional America.

V O T E R O G U E - I O W A 2 0 1 2

Caucus for S A R A H P A L I N !

"A Candidate doesn't make the decision whether to run for President, The People do it for him." - Ronald Reagan

Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake

http://www.facebook.com/groups/IowaEarthquake/

[Alex Fallman]

This made my entire Christmas break! Ron Paul shock the world in Iowa!