Obama looking good in Virginia

PPP has polled Virginia four times in 2011 and has come to the same conclusion every time: Barack Obama just hasn't slipped there to the extent he has nationally.  That's a finding with major, major implications for his reelection prospects because if he wins Virginia he's probably going to win the Electoral College...and our polling in the state over the course of the year has certainly suggested he's in a good position to do it.

Right now we find Obama on positive ground in the state with 48% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. He won Virginia by 6 points against John McCain so his net approval of +1 basically suggests a 5 point decline for him from his 2008 standing.  To put that in context he won the national popular vote by 7 points and our national poll this week put his approval at a -10 spread (42/52), for a 17 point decline nationally.  His numbers are holding up much better in Virginia than most anywhere else.

What sets Obama's numbers apart in Virginia is that it's a rare place where Democrats (89%) are more unified in their approval of him than Republicans (87%) are in their disapproval. A lot of Obama's trouble nationally is being caused by Democrats abandoning ship but in Virginia he has a very strong base behind him.

Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48-42) and Newt Gingrich (50-43) by margins comparable to his 6 point victory over John McCain in 2008. He leads both of them with independents- Romney by 4 and Gingrich by 8. And between the two match ups he's picking up as many Republicans as he's losing Democrats, again something we just aren't seeing in very many places.

What should be particularly heartening for Obama is that this is hardly an isolated finding in our Virginia polling this year.  Over the course of 4 polls where we tested a match up with Romney Obama has led by an average of 7 points. And over the course of 3 polls where Gingrich was included Obama has led by an average of 12 points, although it is worth noting that he's doing better now as he's surged ahead in the Republican race.

Part of Obama's unusual strength in Virginia is that his popularity hasn't fallen that far, but even more important probably is that voters are reacting to the Republican candidate field in an extremely negative fashion.  Romney (33/52) and Gingrich (31/55) are both seen negatively by a majority of voters in the state. Knocking off Obama in Virginia is going to be a challenge for the GOP without a more compelling candidate.

One other important point in Virginia is that the demographic groups that helped fuel his victory there in 2008 are still with him in a major way. He's up 87-10 against Romney and 89-10 against Gingrich with African Americans.  Black voters are likely to be about 20% of the electorate again and that's something he can fall back on in Virginia that he doesn't have in states like Pennsylvania or Nevada or New Hampshire where he's seen a much bigger decline from his standing last time. And he's up 55-33 on Romney and 57-35 on Gingrich with young voters, indicating that he can expect to rack up a huge margin with them again in Virginia as well.

On the off chance the Republican nominee is someone other than Romney or Gingrich, Obama leads Ron Paul 48-40, Rick Perry 51-41, and Michele Bachmann 52-39.  Paul is actually the strongest of all the Republican candidates with independents, fighting Obama to a tie with them as the rest of the contenders trail.

We've said it before but Virginia really looks to be Obama's firewall state as he prepares to run for reelection. Things are looking pretty good for him and if that holds up for another 11 months a victory for him there will make the GOP's path to 270 very, very difficult.

Full results here

Comments

[Dean]

Having grown up in Virginia, I thought it would be a looooong time before I saw VA become a swing/blue state. Glad to see it transitioning at an accelerated pace!

Way to go VA!

[Morgan Whitacre]

From your mouth to God's ears!

[Ranjit]

It does not make sense ! In 2010 & 2011(recent election), democrats lost lot of ground ! Virginia has a popular governor who is going to help Republicans. I don't see the same enthusiasm of 2008 in Northern Virginia ! Meanwhile, there is going to be a huge turn out in rural virginia against Obama ! I still feel it is going to be Red !

[realnrh]

Preface: Yes, it's a year out, that's why they run the race, etc etc etc. Assuming no massive shifts or scandals, etc, which is not always a safe assumption. Now...

If Virginia goes blue, and if Colorado is blue (and so far it looks very firmly blue), then Obama is pretty much an electoral lock. If those two states had been blue in 2004, Kerry would have won, and it's hard to look at the map and see any states that Kerry won that would go for a Republican in 2012. Maybe New Hampshire, but without New Hampshire Kerry would still have won, given CO and VA.

CA, OR, WA, NM, MN, MI, WI, IL, NY, CT, MA, VT, ME, RI, DC, MD, DE, PA, NJ = 253 electoral votes. That's a pretty darn blue collection of states. NM went extremely narrowly for Bush, a phenomenon about equivalent to Obama's surprise 2008 win in Indiana. MN, WI, and MI haven't gone red since 1988 or longer. You could make a case for PA. Add 22 from Virginia and Colorado, and that's it, 275 electoral votes, game over.

Republicans could sweep every other state, and would still lose. And the Republicans don't look like they're in great shape (particularly if it's not Romney) in Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, or Ohio, representing another 47 EVs currently leaning Obama's way. And then there's an added handful of states that are either too close to judge or only leaning the Republican way. Republicans need to capture all of those current tossups, reverse the tilt on the Obama-leaning states, and still pick off one of the former set - all without losing their own no-compromise-allowed base.

That's a darn tall order for some mighty bush-league candidates running for the Republican presidential nod.

[Obama 2012]

realnrh - it does look good - especially when you look at the numbers in Florida where Obama has even bigger leads than in VA according to some polls.

I think Florida's terrible Republican Gov. is helping Obama ...

I also think Ohio is very winnable with all of hijinks from their GOP Gov.

Obama may not be overwhelmingly popular in Florida & Ohio but I believe he is more popular than their Republican Govs... and his policies are *way* more popular.

All you have to do is make the case with the facts and I am confident in the Obama campaign's ability to do that.

[fladem]

At 15%, the young are closer to the 2008 number in this poll than in other polls I have seen PPP do. In 2008 the young wass 21% of the electorate, but in many PPP polls the youth vote is half what it was in 2008.

[Ranjit]

Preface & realnrh,

Republicans have a good chance to win florida with Marco Rubio. Then they have to win virginia which is possible with the help of governor who is very popular. They have a good chance to flip PA, WI, NH, IN & NC. Then, it will be game over for Obama. I still feel OH is toss up! Remember the health care mandate issue. It was defeated by a huge margin than the bargain mandate.

One of the main issue is Economy and obama is trailing by 20 or 30 points in all the polls. How will he make the case?

[Chris]

realnrh,

Colorado is hardly "firmly blue." Obama is leading by 2 points, according to this pollster, which is not exactly a resounding lead, especially considering that the poll had a slight Democratic lean.

Virginia and Ohio may very go for Obama, but don't expect Colorado to do so as well.

[realnrh]

Ranjit -

Florida's certainly a tossup at this point; however, if you're going to claim that Virginia might swing from these poll results to a Republican pickup thanks to a popular Republican governor, you'll have to concede that by the same measure an extraordinarily unpopular Republican governor in Florida would be likely to sink the ticket. Rubio is not a particularly popular figure; Rubio is at a net zero, 40% approve and disapprove alike, while Nelson is holding to an 11-point lead against the best-running Republican (and will actually be on the ticket in November, unlike Rubio).

I did say that PA is not off the table, but Wisconsin has an Obama lead, more than twenty straight years of voting Democratic in Presidential elections, and has the Democratic base (already larger than the Republican base) highly fired up by Walker's overreach; it would have to be a major Republican wave year for Wisconsin to flip at the Presidential level. North Carolina and Ohio are currently leaning Obama's way, as I noted, and thus are states that a Republican would have to swing back. Indiana I credit as being like New Mexico in 2004, a flukey rare deviation from the state's normal partisan bent; it's likely to go back to the Republican category. And NH is certainly in the toss-up category as well.

Also, your math is off. Let's say Republicans flip PA, WI, NH, IN, NC, and Florida. They still lose, 274 to 264, assuming Obama holds the rest of the states he won in 2008. A Republican, as I said, HAS to sweep every single swing state plus pick off some blue states (in this case, WI and PA), in order to win - Ohio is the tipping point here. A Republican loss in Ohio means needing to make up at least 35 electoral votes by picking off blue states - so PA, WI, and either NV or IA. That's a massive deficit, and the 'sweep every swing state' prerequisite is a tall hill to climb absent an enormous wave already.

And ultimately, we get back to my premise: If Colorado and Virginia go blue, then any Republican candidate needs to sweep all the swing states, plus pick up some combination of blue states (with PA the most likely target). Since all the Republican candidates are among the most hyperpartisan individuals in the country today, their crossover appeal is virtually nil; the race would have to take some strange turns to pick off a blue state.

[Todd Dugdale]

fladem,
I think that PPP weights for age, race, and gender. Of course, it's better to have a sample that doesn't need weighting.

ranjit,
The bad economy is not a major winning issue if the voters think the Republican candidate will make the economy worse.
PPP's most recent weekly poll showed that only 31% of the nation thinks that Gingrich would win against Obama, with 50% saying they thought that Obama would win. Republicans are the only demographic that think Gingrich can beat Obama.

You're living in 2010, when independents broke for the GOP overwhelmingly. That isn't happening now, because the electorate learned in 2010 that voting for the Republicans *against* Obama is a dead end.

And, if you think WI will "go red" in 2012, you're delusional. You place a great deal of weight on Governors for some mysterious reason. I've never met a voter that decides who to vote for based on what the Governor of their State thinks.

[Todd Dugdale]

Chris,
Obama leads *Romney* by 2 points in Colorado. He beats *Gingrich* by 8 points there. And Gingrich loses to Obama by 6 points in FL. And Ohio goes to Obama by 13 points if Gingrich is the nominee.

Considering that the weekly poll I referenced previously shows the Republican base believing strongly that Gingrich can beat Obama, and that your entire scenario relies upon a sane Republican base making a reasonable decision about their nominee, you may wish to re-calibrate your projections.

The Tea Party thinks 66/16 that Gingrich will beat Obama.
Republicans believe 54/23 that Gingrich can beat Obama.
Conservatives think Gingrich wins against Obama 50/25.

The base is delusional.