Gingrich up big in New Mexico

Newt Gingrich is up big in New Mexico, leading the way there with 39% to 14% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Gary Johnson, 8% for Ron Paul and Rick Perry, 6% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Gingrich also had a huge lead on our Virginia poll this week and on ones we did in North Carolina and Colorado last week.  I have no doubt that he continues to hold a substantial lead nationally.  But the one place where things aren't going so well for Gingrich is Iowa, where our numbers yesterday showed his favorability spread declining 19 points in a week. Iowa's the one place where opponents are actively attacking Gingrich and the fact that his numbers have started to crumble so quickly there makes you wonder if the same thing is going to happen nationally once the campaign starts coming to other states.  He may be flying high but it doesn't bode well for him that the one place where there's really a lot of action right now is seeing his numbers go in the wrong direction.

Whether they're sustainable or not Gingrich's numbers in New Mexico are impressive.  He has a 65/25 favorability rating and his support is up more than six fold from when we polled the state in late June and found him at just 6%. He is particularly dominant with the Tea Party vote, getting 55% with that group while no one else is even in double digits. But he's doing very well with non-Tea Party Republicans as well, holding a 30-19 advantage over Romney with that group.

New Mexico provides yet another example of Romney's fading popularity over the course of the last six months.  In June he was at 18% in New Mexico and had a +19 favorability rating (50/31).  Now he's down to 14% in the horse race and his net fav has dropped 13 points to only +6 at 47/41.  This is the trend we are seeing for Romney in most states.

And yet this poll provides hope for Romney should Gingrich eventually- some might argue inevitably- collapse.  He's the second choice of 23% of Gingrich voters compared to 16% for Perry and 11% for Bachmann with no one else in double digits.  This is what we're finding on poll after poll- Romney is in a clear second place and he's also the second choice of Gingrich voters, so should Newt fall apart, Mitt goes back to being the front runner- and at the one time where it really matters.

Heather Wilson remains the overwhelming favorite for the GOP Senate nomination.  Her 68/17 favorability rating makes her more popular with Republican primary voters than any of the Presidential candidates. She leads John Sanchez 55-20 with Greg Sowards at 6% and Bill English at 3%. The thought has been that Wilson could struggle with Tea Party voters, but she leads Sanchez 50-22 even with them. 

The one person who could give Wilson a stronger challenge is Gary Johnson, who gets only 11% support for President in his home state but could make a Senate primary relatively competitive.  If he switched races he'd be at 31% in the primary, behind Wilson's 42% but ahead of Sanchez's 15%, Sowards' 3%, and English's 1% standing. If he stays in the Presidential race Wilson looks like a pretty overwhelming favorite to be the GOP nominee.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

The problem for the Republicans is apparent: their entire field is absolutely terrible.

I'm amazed that Obama is only at 50% on Intrade. I can't imagine how anyone can look at this GOP field and think they have any real shot at beating Obama.

Despite all of the attacks hurled by the GOP over the past three years it's clear to any sane rational person that he is far *far* more suited for the White House than any of the Republican clowns.

[realnrh]

It's not just that the Republicans' field is terrible; it's their entire party positioning. There aren't any Republicans outside of fantasy who could make it through a primary this year without making themselves toxic for the general election. The Republican primary electorate wants someone who is completely uncompromising, who would try to eliminate abortion, who would cut major spending programs entirely, who actively rejects the science on climate change, and so on and so on.

Look at Huntsman; he's very likely the most sensible of the bunch, but he didn't even qualify for the last ABC debate because his poll numbers didn't register. He had a pretty good record as governor, he's clearly smart, didn't make any major faux pas (unless you count some flopped jokes in earlier debates), but he's considered an apostate not for his religion but because he said that he thinks people should listen to scientists, and because he cooperated with Obama in re the Ambassadorship to China.

There just isn't anyone at all, not just among those who ran, but anyone at all, who could have appealed to the far-right Republican primary electorate without sinking into seriously negative numbers among the broader populace.

[The Interesting Times]

I just noticed something interesting in your crosstabs: 33% of Paul voters pick Johnson as their second choice, but no Johnson voters pick Paul as their second choice--instead 24% of them go for Gingrich and 21% for Bachmann.

Could it be that there's a gap in the way Paul supporters view Johnson and the way Johnson supporters view Paul?

[Raymond]

I would have liked to see some general election numbers with Johnson as the Libertarian in the race. That could take NM off the purple list if he pulled 4-5% of the vote.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Raymond, we did ask that, but obviously didn't realize it along with the primary numbers. Presidential numbers out tomorrow.