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December 14, 2011

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Obama 2012

The problem for the Republicans is apparent: their entire field is absolutely terrible.

I'm amazed that Obama is only at 50% on Intrade. I can't imagine how anyone can look at this GOP field and think they have any real shot at beating Obama.

Despite all of the attacks hurled by the GOP over the past three years it's clear to any sane rational person that he is far *far* more suited for the White House than any of the Republican clowns.

realnrh

It's not just that the Republicans' field is terrible; it's their entire party positioning. There aren't any Republicans outside of fantasy who could make it through a primary this year without making themselves toxic for the general election. The Republican primary electorate wants someone who is completely uncompromising, who would try to eliminate abortion, who would cut major spending programs entirely, who actively rejects the science on climate change, and so on and so on.

Look at Huntsman; he's very likely the most sensible of the bunch, but he didn't even qualify for the last ABC debate because his poll numbers didn't register. He had a pretty good record as governor, he's clearly smart, didn't make any major faux pas (unless you count some flopped jokes in earlier debates), but he's considered an apostate not for his religion but because he said that he thinks people should listen to scientists, and because he cooperated with Obama in re the Ambassadorship to China.

There just isn't anyone at all, not just among those who ran, but anyone at all, who could have appealed to the far-right Republican primary electorate without sinking into seriously negative numbers among the broader populace.

The Interesting Times

I just noticed something interesting in your crosstabs: 33% of Paul voters pick Johnson as their second choice, but no Johnson voters pick Paul as their second choice--instead 24% of them go for Gingrich and 21% for Bachmann.

Could it be that there's a gap in the way Paul supporters view Johnson and the way Johnson supporters view Paul?

Raymond

I would have liked to see some general election numbers with Johnson as the Libertarian in the race. That could take NM off the purple list if he pulled 4-5% of the vote.

Dustin Ingalls

Raymond, we did ask that, but obviously didn't realize it along with the primary numbers. Presidential numbers out tomorrow.

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