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December 15, 2011


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Todd Dugdale

A few things jumped out at me from the cross-tabs:

Heinrich has a 17% gender gap in his favour against a female candidate (Wilson). Not good for Wilson.

Wilson has relatively high levels of unsure and unfavourable voters in her base of "somewhat conservative" and "very conservative". Add a six-point gap toward "unfavourable" with whites, and you get a Republican with a "base problem".

While whites break in Wilson's favour by 6 points in a match-up with Heinrich, that unfavorablity gap with whites points to soft support for Wilson. Added to that are underwater favourables for Wilson among all age demographics except 65+. She only carries that 65+ demographic by 7 points against Heinrich. Weak candidate with the base.

And the 67/16 spread in Heinrich's favour among the 18-29 demographic points to NM being solid blue in the future.

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