Colorado shows GOP electability differences

Our new Colorado poll is more evidence that the Newt surge could be disastrous for GOP hopes of beating Barack Obama next year.

Despite winning the state by 9 points in 2008, Obama is unpopular there now. Only 45% of voters approve of him to 50% disapproving. PPP found Obama winning white voters there in his first election, but now his approval with them stands at a middling 42/54. He's actually doing well with independents, who approve of him by a 49/42 margin, but with Democrats he's at only 76/18.

As weak as Obama is in Colorado, if the Republicans nominate Newt Gingrich it doesn't look like it matters. Obama leads Gingrich 50-42 in the state, including a whooping 56-32 advantage with independents. Gingrich is a reviled figure with only 32% of voters seeing him favorably to 55% with a negative opinion, including a 25/59 spread with independents.

Republicans can win Colorado next year- they just have to nominate Mitt Romney if they want to do it. If he was the GOP candidate it would be a toss up in the state, as he trails Obama only 47-45. Where Gingrich trails by 24 points with independents, Romney has only a 12 point deficit. Where Gingrich wins over only 11% of Democrats, Romney gets 14%. And even with Republicans where Gingrich gets 82% of his own party's vote, Romney gets 84%.

This is the trend we're seeing in our general election polling. Democrats and independents are much more inclined to vote for Romney than Gingrich.  And even though Republican voters like Gingrich much better than Romney overall, there are fewer Republicans reluctant to vote for Romney in the general election than there are who are hesitant to vote for Newt.  The GOP's move toward supporting Gingrich is seriously endangering its chances of winning in the fall.

If by some strange chance the Republicans nominated someone other than Romney or Gingrich Obama would have an easy time in Colorado. He leads Ron Paul by 9 points at 48-39, Rick Perry by 15 points at 52-37, and the now departed Herman Cain by 16 points at 52-36. There is one thing interesting when you dig in on the favorability numbers of the GOP second tier- Cain comes in at 23/62 and Perry does even worse at 16/69. As much negative publicity as Cain received last week, he's still not as unpopular as Perry.

Colorado could go back in the swing state category next year. Or it could be another easy Obama win as it was in 2008. It's really just going to depend on who the Republicans end up putting forward.

Full results here

Comments

[Chris]

This is the first Colorado poll with a relatively accurate voter screen. The last two were D+8, which was about 13 points higher than the active voter registration totals current in Colorado right now. If you factor in non-active voters, it's much closer to 33/33/33, which is at least near this poll's numbers. In other words, I suspect that this is fairly accurate, even if slightly tilted to the Democrats.

[Obama 2012]

Shhh....

Go Newt!

I think Gingrich's (terrible) numbers vs. Obama are still inflated because of average folks who aren't paying attention to politics. When non-Tea Party types (ie 75%+ of America) starts to pay attention to Newt Gingrich they will not like what they see.

If Newt is the nominee and the economy continues the slow recovery (without another slip) it's hard to see Obama not winning by at least 10%.

[Steve]

A couple of observations:

- a 50%-45% disapproval is bad but not enormous - it's not quite a 'Gray Davis' rating in Colorado.

- a 50%-42% lead must win state for a sitting president at this stage of the campaign is not necessarily wonderful

My point is that the whole school of thought that Newt Gingrich is unelectable doesn't really jive with me. Obviously, he'd like to be doing better in the general election match-ups but I just don't see the unelectability factor. He's still primary campaigning and he has some pretty strong debating and other campaigning skills.

[Chris]

I wanted to make a footnote to my last post. Current registration in Colorado looks like this:

Total registered:

Democrats: 31.8%
Republicans: 32.4%
Unaffiliated: 34.8%

As I mentioned, however, the GOP has about a five point active registration advantage, whatever that's worth.

[Journalist]

What is wrong with Colorado? Why are there even this many conservatives for Obama? You all need to wake up. You're about to loose your country to Socialists. Didn't you listen to his speech the other day? He is against Capitalism. Look up on the internet the word socialism. Find out for yourself why it doesn't great jobs and suppresses the private sector (only place jobs are created) job creation. Bush was a progressive but Obama is a Marxist. Wake up. Don't look to the MSM for your info. You're being lied to.
signed a journalist

[MJS]

Civil War II here we come!

[Bill Mitchell]

Wait, help me get this straight. Colorado has more Republicans than Democrats. Obama has largely lost Independent support. Newt is far ahead amongst Republicans, yet he trails Obama badly overall?

Does anyone else see the math problem here?

No one considers PPP to be a serious polling firm. They have long been established as a "propaganda pollster" for the left. By that I mean that they poll to get a result which meets with the left's propaganda.

[sunny black]

Wouldn't it be a better idea to just present your skewed and inaccurate results, rather than adding your own leftist editorial to it? Not very credible.

[mv1526]

Actually not a bad showing for Newt considering 60 percent probably know nothing about what he is running for. Bottom line is the guy they know still can only muster %50. Sounds like a death blow to Obama.

[Scott]

These polls mean nothing until there's an actual nominee. When there is, and they start running against Obama, beleive me, their poll numbers in Colorodo will take off like a rocket, especially with Obama's approval numbers running around 42%.

[fredCPA in DC]

um, except for the fact newt hasnt campaigned there at all yet. other than THAT, and obama's record, yeah this poll is real significant. nice try guys. but even tho your administration isnt transparanet in the least, YOU all are. too funny tho. keep these coming. laugh riot!! peace out.

[D]

Who cares if CO goes for Barry. Barry is toast and I'm getting out of CO as soon as I can. My once wonderful state has been totally Kalifornicated. It disgusts me what's happened here.

[Matt]

LOL at all the Republican Tea Baggers freaking out. Newt is sitting at a 32-55 unfavorable rating. But no please nominate him cause after all he is the best representation of the modern Republican Party