Snowe looks close to unbeatable

Olympia Snowe appears to be almost unbeatable if she survives the Republican primary in the Maine Senate race next year.  She leads both of her announced Democratic opponents by more than 40 points- it's 42 over Matthew Dunlap at 64-22 and 47 over Jon Hinck at 65-17.

Snowe's overall approval rating is 57/36, making her one of the most popular Senators in the country.  But what makes her particularly formidable is that she's at 65/29 with independents and 58/37 with Democrats, making her stronger with both of those voter groups than she is with her own party base. She's only at 50/40 with Republicans, but if she makes it to the general election she doesn't need to worry about their votes and her crossover support should make it just about impossible for a Democrat to beat her.

This is the best indicator of how difficult it will be for one of the current Democratic candidates to beat Snowe- she leads them even with Democrats!  Snowe leads Dunlap 46-37 and Hinck 47-32 with voters in their own party.  Beyond that she gets 72% of the independent vote against both of them, in addition to having a united Republican base.

We tested a couple pie in the sky candidates who have shown no interest in running- House members Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree- against Snowe as well just to see if even a name Democratic candidate would have a chance against her. Michaud has very strong statewide favorability numbers- 53% see him positively to 27% with a negative opinion- that could make him a good candidate for higher office somewhere down the line.  But not against Snowe- he trails her 54-37 because Snowe gets 28% of the Democratic vote and wins independents 64-30. Pingree has a solid 47/34 favorability spread statewide as well, but she trails Snowe by 19 points head to head at 55-36.

If Snowe does somehow lose in the primary this becomes a prime pick up opportunity for Democrats. Dunlap leads Republican lesser lights Scott D'Amboise and Andrew Ian Dodge by margins of 31-23 and 30-25 respectively. Hinck would find himself basically tied with both of them- down 26-25 to D'Amboise, but up 27-25 on Dodge.  Obviously there would be a whole lot of undecideds in these hypothetical match ups between candidates who currently are pretty much unknown to voters in the state.

A couple other notes on how Snowe has shored up her standing with Republicans over the last 6 months:

-In March 56% of GOP voters felt that Snowe was too liberal.  Now only 41% express that opinion. Democrats (from 31% to 41%) and independents (from 13% to 19%) increasingly think that Snowe is too conservative but obviously that's not hurting her overall standing.

-In March the sentiment of 41% of voters in the state was that Snowe should leave the Republican Party and become an independent, compared to 28% who thought she should stick with the GOP.  But now 47% think Republican is her rightful label, to only 24% who think she should be an independent.

Full results here

Comments

[Vote For Obama]

I don't get this. Why don't people see Snowe for the problem that she is? She is voting with the Republicans in obstructing the President's very popular job proposals. Snowe is a part of the problem that is the Republican Party.

[The Pain in Maine]

That's actually stunning considering she's almost lock-step with the unpopular Republican leadership. She has her own pluses obviously, but that polling number is out of this world.

[Dean]

This is depressing. How can a senator as conservative as Snowe be MORE popular with democrats than with the republicans she consistently votes (and filibusters) with?

People just don't think anymore.

[Maine]

I miss J Baldacci or E Cuttler in this poll but still is better than the previous polls.

She is moving to the right and has less risk of be teabagged, but she has now higher risk to a strong challenge by the left.

This is the succession of polls: E Warren (D) vs S Brown (R)

- 17% (March Western N E College)
- 15% (June PPP)
- 9% (Aug Wbur Mass Inc)
+ 2% (Sept PPP)
- 3% (Sept U Mass Lowell)
- 5% (Sept Western NE College)

Yes, we can to have a democrat from Maine!

[Jay]

Snowe, along with a few other Republicans was one of the few Senators that was willing to vote for the Healthcare Bill provided there was a trigger to a public option. So what did Obama do, he rejected that approach and ended up not only with no trigger but no public option at all. After that, Reid wouldn't even talk to her or Collins of Maine. There are lots of ways to look at this but I wouldn't blame Snowe for not trying to be cooperative which is why she is so popular in Maine. We would be in much better shape if we had many more Senators like Olympia Snowe in Congress.

[ModeratePoli]

@Dean, Maybe I can explain how Snowe can be popular with Dems. A lot of Dems are moderates in a more conservative state like Maine. A centrist like Snowe will work toward good compromises when possible, but won't go to either extreme. She will probably vote fiscally conservative but not socially reactionary like blocking the end of DADT. In that way, she is more reliably moderate than your garden variety Dem.--ModeratePoli (my login isn't working right)

[jeff]

A lot of misinformation from the media and the fact that they aren't reporting that she has been voting lock step with her party as of late.

[Edward]

Vote for Obama - Are you for real! The presidents "very popular" job proposals? You are just as out of touch as the President himself!

[realnrh]

Mostly, a lot of people aren't paying a lot of attention to politics right now (strange as that may seem to us political junkie types). People who aren't paying attention to the votes Snowe is casting are mostly just assuming she's still sometimes bucking her party when they go too far right for her. If she gets a strong challenger for once, they'll start informing people much more aggressively about how she's been voting. Until then, she gets to coast along on her once-relevant reputation.

[Obama 2012]

Edward - Yes. Obama's very popular job proposals. Have you seen the polling? Most of the proposals that are in Obama's American Jobs Act are overwhelmingly popular (some of them even have majority support among *republican voters*) It's obvious that the Republicans are voting them down unanimously in an effort to sabotage the economy to hurt Obama's reelection efforts - unfortunately for them - people are starting to wake up to that fact.

And who in their right mind would vote for a party that would purposefully sabotage our economy for their own political benefit?