Snowe looking safer

Olympia Snowe's prospects for winning the Republican nomination for another term as Senator from Maine are looking the best they have in two years, in what could be a sign of Tea Party fever dwindling.

In October of 2009 only 31% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 59% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. In September of 2010, only 29% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 63% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. In March of this year, only 33% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 58% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative.  After all three of those polls I thought Snowe's prospects for renomination were pretty much shot.  But over the last seven months there's been a major transformation, and now 46% of primary voters in the state stand with Snowe compared to only 47% who want to replace her from the right.

Snowe's approval rating with GOP primary voters is up from 47/44 in March to now 51/37. She's pretty steady with voters describing themselves as 'somewhat conservative' and her popularity has actually declined a little bit with moderates.  But she's done a better job over the last half year of wooing the far right voters who classify themselves as being 'very conservative.'  They still don't like her but she's improved 23 points on the margin with them from -47 (21/68) to -24 (29/53).

Beyond the fact that she's improved her standing with the far right, she's also benefiting from the fact that the Tea Party just isn't that strong in Maine these days.  Only 21% of Republican primary voters in the state identify as members of that movement. They want to replace Snowe with someone more conservative by an 80-16 margin...but they're pretty much drowned out by the rest of the GOP electorate supporting Snowe 58-36. That Tea Party base just doesn't appear to be as large as it used to be.

Tested against her actual primary opponents Snowe gets 62% to 10% for Scott D'Amboise and 7% for Andrew Ian Dodge with 20% undecided.

Snowe's position is much better than it was earlier in the year.  I still wouldn't describe it as good. Her 51/37 approval with Republicans is a lot worse than Mike Castle's 61/23 with Delaware Republicans in December of 2009 or Lisa Murkowski's 77/13 with Alaska Republicans in January of 2010 were before they got taken out from the right.  Beyond that her opponents have no name recognition at this point so they'll probably grow as they become better known, and there's certainly still a large chunk of voters that want to replace Snowe. But she doesn't look as doomed as she did before and that's good news both for her and for Republican prospects of taking back the Senate- there aren't a lot of other GOP candidates who could win a general in Maine.

Full results here

Comments

[Maine]

Do you poll this time Snowe against someone competitive (Democrat or Republican)?

[Don Folkers]

Public Policy Polling has an affiliation with the Democrat Party. Professional polling outfits use a "grid" and call the same people time after time. Since Olympia Snowe is a Democrat in disguise, of course the PPP slants their grid in favor of her. Actually it is worse than that. Ms. Snowe belongs to the anti-Constitutional Council on Foreign Relations. That borders on treason. Write me for documentation. DonFolkers@gwi.net Newcastle, Maine.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Don, I don't even know what you're talking about. If you'd like to come find this "grid" in our office, be our guest.

[AG]

Could it be that Snowe's chances of winning the primary are higher because like the rest of her party she's just more conservative?

[Matthew Berg]

Look at the Congressional Quarterly studies. Snowe had a party unity score of 39% in 2008. The most recent score was 69% in 2010.

Fewer people feel the need to replace her with someone more conservative because she's /become/ more conservative. (Or at least is voting that way.)

[sguild]

I noticed that Dustin didn't deny PPP's affiliation with the Democrat Party.

[Dustin Ingalls]

We are a Democratic firm--in that we work for Democratic candidates only. But the accuracy of the polls we release on this site and to the media speak for themselves.

[Ken Arnold]

Do you have any numbers comparing her against potential Democratic opponents, or is that even at issue here?

[Vote For Obama]

Tea Party fever dwindling would be a very good thing for the Republican Party ... obviously in a case like this (where Snowe winning the primary looks like it also means the Republicans keeping this seat) ... it would probably also be good for America in the long run as maybe some Republicans would start to vote in a more sane manner (rather than just voting NO on everything) .. but in the short run I'd actually like the Tea Party fever to stick around as I think it could help lots of Democrats get elected next year (including Obama)

[Gabby Johnson]

I lived in Maine a dozen years before moving to Montana. I think Mainers are experiencing what we did out here.
Those of us who have had our state legislature taken over by the TEA party have gotten to see what they're all about, and it ain't pretty.
Out here they were openly racist, separatist, you know, confederate. In their legislation they managed to attack women, veterans, sportsmen, seniors, cops, firefighters and all other public employees, and tried to reverse two popular referendums.
Luckily Montana has a Democratic governor to veto all this hateful legislation.
Maine's not so fortunate.

[Self Deprecate Political Humor]

It is in their best interest to stick with Snowe. She votes along the GOP party line more often than many think.

[w]

Yes we need more of the same!

[Don Folkers]

It is less than a year after all these pro-Snowe types above said how good she was. It is my belief that she polled and found that she was going to lose to Constitutionalist Scott D'Amboise in the primary -- hence her about-face and quick departure. One less member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) to "conspire" against our Constitution. See "Memoirs" by David Rockefeller, page 405.