SB 5 headed for big defeat

Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday.  PPP's final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.

What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it's exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March. Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.

Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.

If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. The only person we've found with worse numbers this year is Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie. If Ohio voters could do it over again they'd reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don't have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.

The news isn't all bad for Ohio Republicans though. Issue 3, where a yes vote is being framed as a rejection of Barack Obama's health care plan, is leading for passage by a 49-35 margin. That represents a significant tightening from 3 weeks ago when PPP found the measure ahead by a 55-24 margin, but it might be difficult for the 'no' side to make up another 14 points in the final 36 hours before the polls open.

Our number suggest that voters may not really understand what Issue 3 is.  For instance 18% of Republicans say they oppose it, and we never found anywhere close to 18% of Ohio Republicans supportive of the health care bill when we were polling on it last year. At the same time Democrats only oppose Issue 3 by a 51/29 margin, and we never found anywhere close to 29% of Democrats opposed to Obama's health care plan last year. That lack of understanding about what exactly Issue 3 is has 16% of voters still undecided so this could end up closer than the polling currently indicates.

Issue 1, which would make a bunch of changes to the judicial system in Ohio, is trailing for passage by a 48/27 margin but this is another one where voters don't really understand what it's about, with 25% still undecided.  Unlike the other two issues this one isn't terribly polarizing along party lines- Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike are opposed to it.

One other note on the Issue 2 polling- PPP was criticized both by supporters of Issue 2 and by opponents after its last poll for not using the exact language on the ballot. We felt giving a synopsis of what Issue 2 was about rather than using the exact language was appropriate because of the confusion over what exactly a yes vote and a no vote on the issue meant. For this final poll we used the exact ballot language, and then on a question later in the survey asked again using the language from our earlier polls, which was 'Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year, and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?' Using that language we found 59% of voters for rejection, just like we found 59% for rejection using the exact ballot language. Given that we think even more now that it was reasonable for us not to use the exact ballot language on our earlier polls.

Full results here

Comments

[Mark B.]

Thanks PPP!

[Joan]

I think most people do not know anything about the health care bill, they have heard a lot of talk about it being bad but I think it is the only hope right now for many people to obtain health care.

[Stephana]

Too bad the unions are flooding the airwaves with total lies. If the people actually knew what the language of the bill was it would fail badly.

[Zhenya]

I already voted, and I was able to discern the anti-Obamacare tone of issue 3, but it will probably be unclear to a lot of voters. Shame on the people at the state for trying to obfuscate the real issue of that vote. This is yet another example of the current regime trying to manipulate voters into doing what they want.

[Tina Rocha]

We are forensic accountants sub-contracted to the State of California. This State has a $483BB unfunded public pension liability and large industry is beginning to transact in cash/barter and they aren’t the only ones. Ohio has $66BB in unfunded public pension liability or $190,000 per citizen. All I know is if the union prevails in these unsustainable costs then it’s just not your time Ohio for the wheels to come off but will soon enough. Ohio private sector tax payers? Good luck seems you're going to need it.

[D]

Yes, I want my counterparts in the Public Sector to make twice as much money as me and I want me and my children to fully fund their pentions even though I don't have one.

Yea or Nay?

[Will Robinson]

Nice Job!

[B. Johnson]

The 'No on 2' lies have worked in Ohio. Looks like the Union thugs will get their way. What a crock. Wait until December when towns start laying off cops and firefighters.

[DFCtomm]

A rust belt state like Ohio doesn't want to wake up and smell the coffee. The former union employee's, who now work in the fast food industry, haven't figured it out yet. Don't color me surprised.

[Thomas Macso]

"Given that we think even more now that it was reasonable for us not to use the exact ballot language on our earlier polls."
What? If the results are the same for both forms of the question, it proves exactly the OPPOSITE. Ask the question as the voter sees it when voting for it. If it's confusing, then they'll be confused at the polling place as well.

[John]

This poll confirms one thing. Ohioans are idiots.

[MattM]

All I can say is - "Ohio, you deserve what you are going to get!". Ohio, is going to become the next Michigan.

[mkurbo]

I do think the protestors should be educated more, however the education I have in mind would not be in academia, but in the real business world.

What the OWS protestors simply do not “get” and therefore can’t understand is that “crony capitalism” is a result of government. The “evil” corporations and their executives including Wall Street bankers and market movers go to the government in search of favoritism (i.e., crony capitalism, preferential treatment, etc.), and it is the government via whatever that representative that may be (congressman, senator, fed. agency executive/administrator) has the power to grant or decline that request.

To show how naïve the protestors and movement really is, they suggest more government regulation is the solution when in actuality giving more power to government to regulate crony capitalism will result in more crony capitalism. As government and their representatives acquire more power to regulate, they increase their tendency to use that power in a corrupt fashion to gain favoritism in return.

Example: If you give a congressman the power to overturn common sense and enact collective bargaining “rights” for public sector unions, then they will do so in return for those unions funding their campaigns and/or funneling funds to the congressman’s self interests. That is crony capitalism in action.

[Lynn]

If the voters of Ohio want to maintain a privileged union caste they should.The same as the Greeks.They will pay for it and go bankrupt because of it

[Bladerunner]

I live in Ohio, and I can't believe we are so stupid as a state to give these union thugs what they want. But look at the bill itself. It took up over 58 pages in the Columbus Dispatch with its legal posting. Why was the bill so long? Why couldn't Kasich have made it simpler? I just don't get it. And the ads for issue 2 are so not what the reality is. Why aren't they going for the jugular and telling it like it is? I would imagine some middle-aged person sitting at a dinner table spelling it all out would be much more effective than the couple staring over their checkbook that could have been used in any political ad.

We will get what we deserve. Less firemen and policemen, and the state budget will be back in the red. Kasich will be voted out next election and then we will continue to have an unbalanced budget until the $hit hits the fan. Then all the Dems will complain that everything is causing it except their bloated pension and healthcare benefits for union thugs. People never learn. And to think we non-union folk WANT to pay for their exorbitant benefits. I guess we do. The (civil) servant is now the master.

[NRH]

Looks like some kooky wingnut site sent some of its Neanderthals over to drop in some random whining. If Ohio didn't want to have to make up for under-funding pensions, it could have just funded them all along - or it could have offered industry-competitive wages rather than below-average wages and a higher benefits package. They bargained to trade off immediate liabilities for liabilities down the road, and then Republicans decided to stop paying the bills. Just like with a credit card, when you let the interest accumulate, you get big numbers eventually, and it's your own damn fault for spending years pretending that tax cuts could pay off contractual obligations.

[I was a republican]

You republicans are sooooo stupid! Get use to seeing these results all over the country now and in 2012. You guys are going down! Your days of stealing from the middle class is over!

[Fred Johnson]

Taxes are headed for a big increase if the bill is passed. The real taxpayers will move out and leave the blood sucking state employees left to pay their own salaries in increased taxes.

[Joe]

"I live in Ohio, and I can't believe we are so stupid as a state to give these union thugs what they want. But look at the bill itself. It took up over 58 pages in the Columbus Dispatch with its legal posting. Why was the bill so long? "

There was a lot of really dumb posts made here for some reason, but this combination of two idiotic right-wing talking points takes the cake, I think.