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November 09, 2011

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Obama 2012

This poll combined with all of the excellent election results = very good news. November 2012 is still forever away - but this is the most confident I've felt about Obama's reelection in a long while.

Gerald

PPP should be feeling particularly good. You nailed the Iowa special election and the ME referendum on same-day voter registration. Add those feathers to your cap along with NY-9 and every single one of the WI recall races.

In both IA and ME, your margins were a bit narrower than the actual result, but that is a function of the off-off year voter turnout variable. I wonder if PPP has some algorithm that it could use to adjust the raw results of polling in an off-year or an off-off-year to reflect predictions about voter turnout based on early voting or absentee ballot requests. For example, in IA SD 18, Mathis was running 2-1 ahead of Golding in early voting, so that might have warranted an adjustment to the raw results of the PPP poll to reflect a healthier margin.

heatherglam

what a bias!

Jay

Your "do over polls" intrigue me. I don't see how it really represents anything unless you actually have a "do over" election. In other words, you need a complete campaign again before doing the polling to indicate what might actually happen. A "do over" of Obama and McCain might also have showed quite a change a year after the election but in my mind would have been meaningless.I also note that in Ohio yesterday, the Obama healthcare plan went down to a very ignominious defeat with the same people voting on the labor legislation. What do you make of that?

atdleft

If Obama can solidify his position in Ohio, then it's game over for Romney/Cain/Perry/Gingrich in 2012. It looks like John Kasich just gave the President a great early Christmas present.

The Interesting Times

The Democratic base was unified over the weekend because of Issue 2.

Will they be as unified in a year when they'll be voting for an unpopular Obama instead of for their own collective bargaining rights? My money is on "no."

D. Y. Crawford

If these poll numbers are correct, then I suppose Ohio voters--or at least those polled--are satisfied with economic prospects for their State. Do voters there actually believe that they are better off now than they were in 2008? If voters rejected Pres. Bush for his flawed economic program, how can Ohio voters even consider re-electing Pres. Obama, since his fiscal policy has been an unmitigated disaster in general? Ohio is surely no economic Garden of Eden because of Obama policies.
I pray that Ohioans recover from their amnesia soon.

Walter Rhett

The repeated idea of affective "dissatisfaction" determining how one votes on the leadership in foreign policy, security, and the domestic common good. The vote has far more to do with how tax, health, environmental, and budget plans, along with the safety nets. The polls reflect an affirmation, not a disconnect.

The website, Democrats for Progress, looked at this issue today: http://bit.ly/ddmre Digging Deeper:The Mirror of Expectations.

George

It is fully possible that one third of the bafoons who voted against the Kasich plan will turn out and vote for Herman Cain.

Obama 2012

DY Crawford - stop it with that Reagan "better off 4 years ago" nonsense! 4 years ago was before the Bush recession started! You guys would be blaming FDR for the Great Depression too!

Obama is doing everything he can to get the US out of the Bush Recession - the problem is that the Grand Obstructionist Party is purposefully sabotaging the economy in order to defeat Obama. They are putting their short term political gain ahead of the well being of millions of Americans. It is absolutely disgusting and one of the most anti-American moves in American political history.

Today's Republican Party is a disease.

The Interesting Times

As someone else noted, Obamacare was crushed in Ohio's vote on Tuesday.

If Obama can make the election about collective bargaining, he can win Ohio.
If his Republican opponent can make the election about health care, Obama could lose Ohio.

realnrh

Fortunately for him, President Obama will be up against an actual named Republican, not facing a generic approve/disapprove measure. And every named Republican is downright hated in Ohio. They've seen what Republicans want to do, and Ohio Democrats get to spend all of the next year gleefully tying every Republican in the state to the union-busting attempt.

CaresAbout US

It's interesting how Ohio voted for unions and therefore Obama, yet opposed Obamacare by a huge margin. Don't the people there realize that all the spending is not sustainable and their children and grandchildren will pay for it?

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