Arizona is one of the Obama campaign's dream states for 2012 but their chances there aren't looking very good right now- Obama has poor approval numbers in the state and trails Mitt Romney by a healthy margin.
Obama's Arizona approval rating is only 41% with 54% of voters disapproving of him. A higher than normal 22% of Democrats disapprove of the job he's doing, and with independents he's at a pretty bad 35/57 spread. Obama's seen a fair amount of erosion of his numbers in the state since early May, when his approval came down at a 46/50 spread.
Obama trails a hypothetical match up with Mitt Romney, 49-42. That 7 point spread is pretty similar to the 9 points Obama lost to John McCain by in 2008. Romney leads Obama by 11 points with independents and takes an impressive 16% of the Democratic vote.
Obama does have a chance in the state if the GOP nominates someone other than Romney though.
Gingrich actually isn't the second strongest Republican against Obama. That honor goes to Ron Paul who leads the President by a single point at 44-43. Most striking in Paul's numbers is a 55-28 advantage with independents. We really are finding on most polls that Paul is the strongest candidate with those voters out of Obama and the entire Republican field. Paul did better overall against Obama than Gingrich on both our Pennsylvania and Arizona polls last week.
Obama has clear leads against 2 other Republican candidates: he's up 46-42 on Herman Cain and 47-40 on Rick Perry. Perry's favorability numbers continues to register at astonishingly low levels: only 17% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 67% with a negative one.
An Obama victory in Arizona next year isn't completely outside the realm of possibility, but it looks like an uphill climb given where his approval numbers are.
Full results here