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November 28, 2011

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Andrew

Ron Paul numbers are intriguing, not surprising though. And for the record, I'm not a Ron Paul spambot ;-)

I do think it would be interesting to look at Ron Paul as a third party candidate on a couple of polls that you run. Might be interesting to put him against a Republican generic candidate and Obama. I still wouldn't be shocked to see Paul go third party if Romney is the RNC candidate.

Bob

I doubt he can win Arizona in 2012. I do wonder if perhaps Georgia is within grasp.

Jay from PA

I think this poll shows that rather than Obama being able to expand his range of states, he better hope the Republicans nominate someone other than Romney which is probably why the Obama camp is running ads against Romney in battleground states long before we know who will be the nominee. Obama will have his work cut out just carrying three of the states he carried last time, that is, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia. He has already conceded the loss of Indiana and Florida if you read between the lines of his operatives.

Nonie

First of all obama hasn't campaigned yet. Seniors and Hispanics in Arizona will not take too kindly to the GOP once the attack ads start hitting them over the head on the tv and internet as to what the GOP is about. Gutting the big 3, education, 99% vs 1%. How the GOP has blocked everything that has "JOB" in it from passing. Obama can win arizona by the ground game. I don't pay attention to poll numbers a year away. Obama was down 30 points to Hillary 3 monts before Iowa Caucas and we know how that turned out. Polls dont' mean diddly, boots on the ground does.

Obama 2012

As it becomes more likely that Newt Gingrich may actually win this nomination - it's hard to see this as bad news. Hell even a 7% loss to Romney seems like pretty good news when you compare it to losing to McCain by 9% in 2008.

Obama is getting (unfair) blame for the economy and that's tough ... but an election isn't just a yes or no on the incumbent - it's a choice and the terrible Republican candidates are going to make that choice easy for Americans: Vote Obama.

Alan Snipes

Well, I'm the one who wanted you to poll Arizona because another poll released a few weeks ago had Obama ahead of Romney 45-40. I still think, though, that this state can be competitive for Obama next year if his campaign targets it. It would make Republicans play defense in a place they shouldn't have to.
But as of today, I will adjust my electoral vote calculator based on your poll.
Thanks to PPP for polling this state.

Ranjit

Jay,

I am not sure, virginia is in the list of winnable states for Obama. It has turned so red that, Obama needs a huge surge of support in Northern Virgina. That surge needs to equal or exceed the numbers of 2008. Is that possible in 2012? Also, a very good and popular republican governor in Virgina makes it impossible.

That brings us to North Carolina, where we have a governor who is becoming unpopular everyday including yesterday's indictment. She is hoping Obama to help her and NC might be slowly moving away from Obama. Their hope is the DNC convention momentum and African American turn out. Will they match 2012 support in terms of number that will negate the independents swing from Obama?

So, Ohio might be a better chance but they did loose healthcare mandate in huge numbers than the collective bargain mandate ! Even Ohio, I will only give 50-50%.

Gerald

Are there miscellany coming for PA and AZ?

NRH

Indiana caught just about everyone by surprise in 2008, and given the narrow margin McCain could probably have held it if he hadn't been basically broke at the end and thus not competing in states he had to assume were going his way no matter what. I'm more skeptical of the claim about conceding Florida - what's the basis for that one? With Nelson in Florida looking to run well and with Rick Scott extremely unpopular, and with Republican hopes requiring a win there under almost every plausible scenario, Florida seems destined for battleground status again in 2012, not likely to be dropped a year in advance.

Pat

Obama 2012, Could you please stop using this comment feed to campaign for Obama. I come here to read what other people think about the data at hand, not read your spin, and your non-stop promotion of Obama. Thank you.

joel

Az seems out of reach in 2012. 46% of the voters are conservative and would never vote for Obama. His only chance is getting Newt who eventually will make an ass of himself and turn everyone but the far right against him.

Daniel

Absurd to think that Obama ever had a chance in Zona.

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