Obama unpopular in Arizona

Arizona is one of the Obama campaign's dream states for 2012 but their chances there aren't looking very good right now- Obama has poor approval numbers in the state and trails Mitt Romney by a healthy margin.

Obama's Arizona approval rating is only 41% with 54% of voters disapproving of him. A higher than normal 22% of Democrats disapprove of the job he's doing, and with independents he's at a pretty bad 35/57 spread. Obama's seen a fair amount of erosion of his numbers in the state since early May, when his approval came down at a 46/50 spread.

Obama trails a hypothetical match up with Mitt Romney, 49-42.  That 7 point spread is pretty similar to the 9 points Obama lost to John McCain by in 2008. Romney leads Obama by 11 points with independents and takes an impressive 16% of the Democratic vote.

Obama does have a chance in the state if the GOP nominates someone other than Romney though. 

Current GOP frontrunner Newt Gingrich can only achieve a tie in the state with Obama at 45% each. Numbers we released last week showed that Gingrich is the first choice of Republicans in the state, but he just can't match Romney's appeal to Democrats and independents.  Where Romney has an 11 point advantage over Obama with independents, Gingrich leads him by just a single point with that group. And where Romney gets 16% of the Democratic vote, Gingrich can only get 12%. It's pretty clear who Republicans need to go with if their first priority is defeating Obama.

Gingrich actually isn't the second strongest Republican against Obama.  That honor goes to Ron Paul who leads the President by a single point at 44-43.  Most striking in Paul's numbers is a 55-28 advantage with independents.  We really are finding on most polls that Paul is the strongest candidate with those voters out of Obama and the entire Republican field. Paul did better overall against Obama than Gingrich on both our Pennsylvania and Arizona polls last week.

Obama has clear leads against 2 other Republican candidates: he's up 46-42 on Herman Cain and 47-40 on Rick Perry. Perry's favorability numbers continues to register at astonishingly low levels: only 17% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 67% with a negative one.

An Obama victory in Arizona next year isn't completely outside the realm of possibility, but it looks like an uphill climb given where his approval numbers are.

Full results here

Comments

[Andrew]

Ron Paul numbers are intriguing, not surprising though. And for the record, I'm not a Ron Paul spambot ;-)

I do think it would be interesting to look at Ron Paul as a third party candidate on a couple of polls that you run. Might be interesting to put him against a Republican generic candidate and Obama. I still wouldn't be shocked to see Paul go third party if Romney is the RNC candidate.

[Bob]

I doubt he can win Arizona in 2012. I do wonder if perhaps Georgia is within grasp.

[Jay from PA]

I think this poll shows that rather than Obama being able to expand his range of states, he better hope the Republicans nominate someone other than Romney which is probably why the Obama camp is running ads against Romney in battleground states long before we know who will be the nominee. Obama will have his work cut out just carrying three of the states he carried last time, that is, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia. He has already conceded the loss of Indiana and Florida if you read between the lines of his operatives.

[Nonie]

First of all obama hasn't campaigned yet. Seniors and Hispanics in Arizona will not take too kindly to the GOP once the attack ads start hitting them over the head on the tv and internet as to what the GOP is about. Gutting the big 3, education, 99% vs 1%. How the GOP has blocked everything that has "JOB" in it from passing. Obama can win arizona by the ground game. I don't pay attention to poll numbers a year away. Obama was down 30 points to Hillary 3 monts before Iowa Caucas and we know how that turned out. Polls dont' mean diddly, boots on the ground does.

[Obama 2012]

As it becomes more likely that Newt Gingrich may actually win this nomination - it's hard to see this as bad news. Hell even a 7% loss to Romney seems like pretty good news when you compare it to losing to McCain by 9% in 2008.

Obama is getting (unfair) blame for the economy and that's tough ... but an election isn't just a yes or no on the incumbent - it's a choice and the terrible Republican candidates are going to make that choice easy for Americans: Vote Obama.

[Alan Snipes]

Well, I'm the one who wanted you to poll Arizona because another poll released a few weeks ago had Obama ahead of Romney 45-40. I still think, though, that this state can be competitive for Obama next year if his campaign targets it. It would make Republicans play defense in a place they shouldn't have to.
But as of today, I will adjust my electoral vote calculator based on your poll.
Thanks to PPP for polling this state.

[Ranjit]

Jay,

I am not sure, virginia is in the list of winnable states for Obama. It has turned so red that, Obama needs a huge surge of support in Northern Virgina. That surge needs to equal or exceed the numbers of 2008. Is that possible in 2012? Also, a very good and popular republican governor in Virgina makes it impossible.

That brings us to North Carolina, where we have a governor who is becoming unpopular everyday including yesterday's indictment. She is hoping Obama to help her and NC might be slowly moving away from Obama. Their hope is the DNC convention momentum and African American turn out. Will they match 2012 support in terms of number that will negate the independents swing from Obama?

So, Ohio might be a better chance but they did loose healthcare mandate in huge numbers than the collective bargain mandate ! Even Ohio, I will only give 50-50%.

[Gerald]

Are there miscellany coming for PA and AZ?

[NRH]

Indiana caught just about everyone by surprise in 2008, and given the narrow margin McCain could probably have held it if he hadn't been basically broke at the end and thus not competing in states he had to assume were going his way no matter what. I'm more skeptical of the claim about conceding Florida - what's the basis for that one? With Nelson in Florida looking to run well and with Rick Scott extremely unpopular, and with Republican hopes requiring a win there under almost every plausible scenario, Florida seems destined for battleground status again in 2012, not likely to be dropped a year in advance.

[Pat]

Obama 2012, Could you please stop using this comment feed to campaign for Obama. I come here to read what other people think about the data at hand, not read your spin, and your non-stop promotion of Obama. Thank you.

[joel]

Az seems out of reach in 2012. 46% of the voters are conservative and would never vote for Obama. His only chance is getting Newt who eventually will make an ass of himself and turn everyone but the far right against him.

[Daniel]

Absurd to think that Obama ever had a chance in Zona.