Barack Obama's approval numbers are under water even in Maine, where he won by an 18 point margin in 2008. Now 47% of voters there think he's doing a good job to 48% who disapprove. His biggest issue in the state is a lower than usual 75/17 standing with Democratic voters. He's also slightly under water with independents at 46/49.
Maine makes 8 states PPP has polled on in the last few months that Obama won by at least 9 points in 2008 where he now has negative approval numbers: Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and now Maine. It speaks to the struggles he's having even in states that weren't exactly in the toss up category the last time around.
Obama's approval numbers in Maine may leave something to be desired, but it doesn't look like he's at much risk of actually losing the state in 2012. He leads the entire Republican field there by double digits. Mitt Romney comes the closest but still trails by 11 points at 49-38. The rest of the GOP field does about as bad as John McCain did in the state or even worse. Herman Cain trails by 17 at 54-37, Ron Paul is down 19 at 53-34, Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann both have a 20 point deficit at 55-35, and Rick Perry does the worst with a 21 point gap at 55-34.
Why is Obama doing so well in head to heads in a state where voters don't really like the job he's doing? It's a familiar story- Mainers like the Republicans even less. Mitt Romney is the most 'popular' with a 38/49 favorability breakdown. After him it's Herman Cain at 32/46, Michele Bachmann at 23/55, Ron Paul at 24/57, and Newt Gingrich at 25/63. The most eye popping number in this poll might be Rick Perry's favorability: only 16% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 66% with a negative one. It's amazing how he's become so toxic, so fast.
The numbers in Maine very much reflect what we're seeing nationally at this point. Romney is doing 7 points better than McCain did in the state and a 7 point swing on the national popular vote would result in the tie that most of the national Obama/Romney polling right now ultimately boils down to. Meanwhile the rest of the GOP field can't do any better than McCain did, speaking to the reality that if the Republicans nominate anyone other than Romney they risk squandering a great opportunity to knock off an unpopular Obama.
Full results here
I would say that it's a pretty high approval rating considering the state went 180 degrees in the last election and Paul Lepage's approval ratings have shot up. This is the other state just behind NH that has seen an implosion in Democrat support since 2009 in New England. At most, he's gonna lose one of the Maine congressional district.
Posted by: The Pain in Maine | November 05, 2011 at 01:19 AM
Another poll done in a state that will go heavily for Obama in 2012. How about polling a state like Arizona? This might actually lead to a poll that is interesting.
Posted by: Alan Snipes | November 05, 2011 at 01:07 PM