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November 15, 2011

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NewWorldRadical

Ron Paul receives, on average, about 12% of any given statewide Republican poll. He also charts well with Independents, Libertarians, undeclared voters and anti-war Democrats. In states with open elections, such as South Carolina, Ron Paul will do surprisingly well based on this reality.

Paul will also see this boost in semi-closed elections, such as in New Hampshire, where Independents can choose which primary ballot they want.

In most closed states, Paul will see his biggest struggle as his campaign will rely on Republicans and those who switch parties to vote for him. However, the exception to this rule is Iowa. Iowans can change parties and register on the day of the caucus, giving Ron Paul a huge advantage thanks to his cross party positions.

Paul's biggest hurdle is the "unelectable" label. If Paul does well in the states listed - the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina - the nomination will be his.

atatdleftdleft

Great. So will the media stop writing President Obama's political obituary already? PPP hasn't been the only poll this week to show Obama's trial heat numbers against the leading GOPers strengthen. And remember, regardless of what the numbers look like now, the election is still almost a year away.

Duncan

NewWorldRadical - No. Realistically, no. Paul, like Romney, looks to have hit a ceiling and his ratings haven't shifted more or less since the start of the campaign. People don't shift party registration in sufficient numbers to give him the boost he needs (he's polling at 3% in South Carolina; I can tell you right now there's no way he's going to win it) and NH polling includes independents for the very reason you mention. If he's lucky he might be able to make 2nd in New Hampshire if every other non-Romney candidate explodes. Iowa he'd be lucky to finish 3rd and that probably isn't going to happen.

realnrh

Ron Paul couldn't win the nomination even if every other candidate in the race today dropped out. It's past enough filing deadlines that the dropouts would still appear on the ballot, and their delegates would be under no obligation to vote for Paul at the convention. Somebody not even in the race today would end up with the nod in that case. He drinks the wrong color Kool-Aid for a Republican primary.

Chic Men

I can tell you who will never be President in this field.:

Romney, Ron Paul, Newt, Gingrich, Cain and Buchman...so go figure.

Why....? because Obama has something, I don't know what it is.. that no matter what race he run in or type of opponent and how difficult it is in the beginning he happen to end up with the weakest opponent. This is why none of the above will ever be president and I will bet anyone...come Nov 2012. He will landslide his opponent. If things are bad now but these guys are still struggling...go figure out and remember my comment. His likability and personality may be the secret tool behind all this, and he is the campaigner in chief. Remember this comment....!!! At the end all these polls and pundentry won't matter....like all his past election in IL.

Do not tell Barack he can't do it or economy will take him down...he beats the odds each time. There is a lot of amnesia in this society. A lot of short minded Americans.

Chic

Jay

In response to Chic- Obama can have it all but unless he can get himself up to at least 48% in the approval ratings and 48% against Romney, he is going to lose. I believe in the 2-1 rule. People that say they are undecided about an incumbent, usually break 2-1 against which makes perfect sense. So if my calculations are correct, if Romney is at 43 and Obama at 46, Romney wins. This still looks a lot like the election of 1980,where many voters made up their minds the last week. While Romney is no Reagan and Obama is no Carter the numbers are still the numbers.

ShadoAngel

Duncan obviously hasn't been paying attention the newest polls. I'm not saying Paul will win it - he's still a long shot. But statistically tied for first in Iowa (Bloomberg poll) and a very strong 2nd in NH are both indication of his campaign strength. He's not doing great in national polls, but he's also one of the lesser known candidates. And primaries are notoriously prone to upsets and poll inaccuracy. General elections are far more concrete. In a field where it seems that more than half the voters still on set on a candidate, I think it's foolish to say that any of these contestants in the top 5 or 6 are out of the race yet.

Ryan B.

It looks like Obama has the lowest numbers with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. With the percentage of undecided voters taken into consideration, we can essentially have either of the two win the Presidency.

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