-The referendum to return same day voter registration to Maine is heading for a close vote, with 48% of voters supporting it and 44% opposed. Democrats support keeping same day registration by a 60/33 margin, while Republicans oppose it 29/64. Breaking the tie are independents, who say they'll vote for it 56/35. This looks like a vote that could go either way and it may come down to whether young people- more likely to use the same day registration option- bother to turn out and vote. They support keeping it by a 61/39 margin.
-This is the first time PPP has polled Maine in over 7 months but Paul LePage's position hasn't budged a bit. In March 43% of voters approved of him with 48% disapproving, and now those numbers are exactly the same. He is very polarizing with 80% of Republicans giving him good marks, and 76% of Democrats rating him negatively. Independents split against him by a 38/52 spread.
Voters say if they could do it over again they'd elect independent Eliot Cutler as Governor- 43% say they'd go with him to 38% for LePage and 16% for Democratic nominee Libby Mitchell. LePage's 38% is exactly what he got last year, but with the benefit of hindsight more Democrats now wish they had voted for Cutler instead of their own party's nominee.
-Maine is a great example of the reality that public opinion is moving on the topic of gay marriage. 2 years ago voters in the state narrowly voted to overturn a law allowing same sex couples to marry. But now 51% of voters in the state say they think gay marriage should be legal to only 42% who continue to believe it should be illegal. Opinions among Democrats and Republicans haven't changed a whole lot over the last 2 years, but independents have gone from opposing gay marriage by a 52/46 margin to supporting it by a 53/39 spread.
We also tested proposed language for a ballot measure next year that would allow gay marriage while also making it clear that no religious institution would be required to perform those marriages if it didn't want to. Right now voters say they would pass that by a 48/35 margin.
-Susan Collins continues to be one of the more popular Senators in the country with 54% of voters approving of her and 35% disapproving. Collins is a rare Senator who does better with the middle than voters on either ideological extreme. Moderates think she's doing a good job (63/30) while voters describing themselves both as very liberal (45/52) and very conservative (32/49) split against her. She's certainly one of few Republican Senators who polls better with the far left than the far right.
-Maine voters like Occupy Wall Street (47/32) and hate the Tea Party (33/51). Asked which movement they have a higher opinion of voters pick Occupy Wall Street by a 52-33 margin, including a 58-22 spread with independents.
-Mainers are evenly divided on the state's system for dispensing Presidential electoral voters. 41% support the current method of giving them out by Congressional District, while 40% would prefer a statewide winner take all formula. Republicans prefer the status quo 48/35, while Democrats would like to make a change 44/34.
Full results here
Great job in Maine. Really interesting results. PPP is the only organization to poll on the same-day registration question and has given us the first independent poll on marriage since the pro-gay side began its petitioning effort. So PPP has made a real contribution here.
I am surprised that the same-day registration question is as close as it is. As this is an off-off year election, turnout will be key. If the pro side has to rely on young voters, they will surely lose. They are probably counting on unions to turn out the vote.
On gay marriage, the 51% support level is, I believe, exactly the same as the support level shown in the poll released by the proponents a few months ago. I see that here, as in many other PPP polls, there is a decent sized undecided component. PPP's polling on this issue has been very accurate and PPP has been very successful in avoiding the so-called Bradley effect in its gay marriage polls. So I don't think that the 7% undecided are really just bashful "no" votes.
If Maine follows the same pattern as the other states that PPP has polled recently (HI, MO, SC, TX, etc.) these undecideds are former gay marriage opponents who would now readily embrace civil unions, but who are genuinely unsure about whether they can go as far as marriage. When given just the up or down question on marriage, they don't know which way to break so they go undecided.
The opposition will surely target these folks by trying to convince them that Maine's existing very limited domestic partnership law is good enough, and that if it does fall short, the best option would be to tweak it rather than grant gays full marriage equality. They used this approach on a limited basis in their 2009 campaign, and it caused a big rift with the hardliners who did not want to concede that any recognition of gay relationships was appropriate. It should be very interesting to see how they play the issue this time around.
Incidentally, the proponents have collected enough signatures to get it on the ballot and still have 2 months left to build a signature cushion. So this is definitely on for 2012.
Posted by: Gerald | November 04, 2011 at 12:38 AM