Mack, Hill lead primaries

In addition to looking at the Republican Presidential race on our Florida and Montana polls we also looked at the Florida Senate primary and the Montana Gubernatorial primary.

In the Florida Senate primary Connie Mack IV is stronger now than he was before he decided not to run before he decided to run. In late March Mack was polling at 28% in a Republican primary. Now we find him leading the way with 40% to 12% for George LeMieux, 4% for Mike McCalister, and 3% each for Adam Hasner and Craig Miller.

Name recognition is certainly a big part of Mack's early advantage. 57% of voters are familiar with him compared to only 29% for LeMieux, 18% for Hasner, and 17% for McCalister and Miller. But this is interesting to note too:

-Among voters familiar with Hasner, Mack leads Hasner 41-5.

-Among voters familiar with LeMieux, Mack leads LeMieux 40-25.

-Among voters familiar with McCalister, Mack leads McCalister 36-15.

-Among voters familiar with Miller, Mack leads Miller 36-8.

The bottom line? Name recognition is certainly an important part of the equation, but even when you account for that Mack's well ahead. And he has strong numbers across the ideological lines of the GOP, getting 44% with 'very conservative' voters, 43% with 'somewhat conservative' ones, and 32% with moderates.

In the Montana Gubernatorial primary Rick Hill continues to be the early front runner with 37% to 10% for Ken Miller, 5% for Jeff Essmann, 4% for Jim Lynch, 3% for Neil Livingstone and Jim O'Hara, 2% for Corey Stapleton, and 1% for Bob Fanning.

Compared to the last time we polled this contest in June Miller's up 4 points and Hill's up 2 points, while Livingstone is down 12 points and Essmann is down 6 points.

This is another one where name recognition is a big early factor. Hill is known to 51% of voters, compared to only 29% for Miller, 26% for Essmann, and 22% for Livingstone. We didn't poll on the other candidates.

-Among voters familiar with Miller Hill still leads, although only 37-28.

-Among voters familiar with Essmann, Hill leads 41-13.

-Among voters familiar with Livingstone, Hill leads 43-9.

Those numbers suggest Miller could be pretty competitive once he becomes better known. Hill polls at 43% with moderates but that goes down to 40% with 'somewhat conservative' voters and then 31% with 'very conservative' voters. So those numbers suggest a little vulnerability on his right.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay]

The Florida race in November bears close attention. Mack may give Nelson a run for his money. This race wasn't on many people's radar. It may end up that both Nelsons (the other one from Nebraska) may lose as well. If Democrats don't find a seat to win, it would almost assure that the Republicans win the Senate in the Fall.

[George]

All well and good..however, I would like to see some matchups with some incumbents as well as matchup between Obama and Gingrich and Obama and Romney in Florida.