Feinstein reelect looks safe

Some polls in the last few months have found Dianne Feinstein in trouble for reelection, but not us: she has a solid approval rating and double digit leads over a handful of hypothetical Republican opponents.

51% of Californians approve of the job Feinstein is doing to 38% who disapprove. Her numbers have barely moved over the course of this year- the other time we polled the state, in late January, she was at 50/39. Feinstein has the party base pretty much unified behind her, with 76% of Democrats approving to only 11% who disapprove. She also has a higher than normal amount of crossover support with 19% of Republican giving her good marks, and that helps her overcome a poor 37/46 spread with independents.

The only well known Republican challenging Feinstein, although she is perhaps more infamous than famous, is prominent birther Orly Taitz. Taitz's crusade hasn't brought her much name recognition- 77% of Californians don't have an opinion about her. And among those who do have one only 4% see her positively to 19% with a negative opinion.  Even with Republicans she's at only 4/22.  Suffice it to say she would not present a very strong challenge to Feinstein- she trails in a hypothetical contest 56-29.

We also tested some other Republicans against Feinstein who would presumably make stronger opponents than Taitz but the closest any of them comes is Feinstein's 2000 opponent, Tom Campbell, and he still trails by 15 points at 53-38. 2010 Republican Gubernatorial runner up Steve Poizner trails Feinstein by 19 points at 54-35.

Last year's GOP Senate nominee, Carly Fiorina, trails Feinstein by 20 points at 56-36.  That is a good reflection of Feinstein's strength relative to Barbara Boxer- Boxer defeated Fiorina by only 10 points last year, so Feinstein is about 10 points stronger. If Republicans were going to pick up a Senate seat in California they probably needed to do it last year.

Finally Congressman Devin Nunes, who recently threatened to challenge Feinstein before walking it back, trails her by 24 points at 55-31.

If Dianne Feinstein wants another term in the Senate it doesn't look like she will have too much trouble getting it.

Full results here

Comments

[Jon]

I don't understand why you only tested Feinstein against Republican challengers. It would have been worth at least looking at her numbers against Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, etc to see how she does against a strong Democratic challenger, given the Top Two primary system.

[Gerald]

Don't know why you didn't poll Michael Reagan v. Feinstein. There has been serious talk about Reagan's running.

The truly scary thing about this poll is that 4% of the respondents know who Orly Taitz is and have a favorable opinion of her. Who are these people and why did the ward attendants allow them to answer the phone?

[Dustin Ingalls]

Reagan said he would not be running almost as soon as the rumors popped up.

[Gerald]

Maybe, but denials can be walked back. If polls showed him competitive, he might have started singing a different tune.

[Dustin Ingalls]

I doubt he'd have been any more competitive than the ones we did test. If anything, less competitive than anyone but maybe Nunes and Taitz.

[Linda]

To Jon (above) --This is because NONE of the DEMOCRATS would have the guts to actually CHALLENGE HER!!! It's a rule they follow implicitly. An INCUMBENT gets first choice. Dianne will hold out until the last possible second before announcing whether she'll run again, and there's little chance she won't. As part of the 1%, being in the Senate's been very lucrative. Check back in Project Censored for their articles about her.