Down to the wire on Personhood Amendment

It looks like the race to watch in Mississippi on Tuesday night will be the state's proposed 'Personhood Amendment,' which would make the state's laws regarding abortion and birth control the strictest of any state in the country.  Right now it looks like it could go either way, with 45% of voters supporting the amendment and 44% opposed.

Men (48-42), whites (54-37), and Republicans (65-28) support the proposal.  But women (42-46), African Americans (26-59), Democrats (23-61), and independents (35-51) oppose it.  The good news for those opposed to the amendment is that 11% of voters are undecided and their demographics are 58% women, 54% Democratic, and 42% black- those still on the fence disproportionately belong to voter groups that oppose the amendment. That suggests when those folks make up their minds the proposal could be narrowly defeated.

There should be less suspense in the Gubernatorial race. Republican Phil Bryant leads his Democratic opponent Johnny DuPree by 14 points, 54-40. The race is incredibly polarized along racial lines with Bryant up 74-20 with whites, while DuPree has an 80-11 advantage with African Americans. It's an unusual contest for this highly negative political climate in that voters have a positive opinion of both candidates: Bryant's favorability is 54/25 and DuPree's is 46/27. We don't see that very often.

The decisive factor in this race may be Haley Barbour.  His 60/29 approval rating represents the best numbers we've found for any Governor in the country this year.  When you have an incumbent leaving office that popular, you're usually not going to see voters eager to switch the party in power.

One finding on the poll that could be particularly bad news for Democrats is that they trail 49-38 on the generic legislative ballot. It's always hard to say how generic ballot results will translate to seats gained and lost, but with Democrats holding a narrow majority right now in the House of Representatives these numbers suggest that the GOP could gain control on Tuesday.

There's some better news for Democrats down ballot.  Attorney General Jim Hood looks to be headed for reelection, leading his Republican opponent Steve Simpson by a 52-39 margin.  In addition to having his party unified behind him Hood leads with independents and is taking an impressive 26% of the GOP vote.  If Democrats are ever going to win a Gubernatorial or Senate race in Mississippi Hood is probably their guy. Things don't look as promising for the party in the Treasurer's contest. There Republican Lynn Fitch is leading with 54% to 35% for Democrat Connie Moran and 4% for Reform Party candidate Shawn O'Hara.

We also polled two other proposed constitutional amendments. A photo id requirement vote looks like it will pass easily, currently leading 64-29. An eminent domain amendment looks like it will pass as well, although by a narrower margin. It currently leads 51-39.

Full results here

Comments

[dominic]

So... you refuse to do a generic ballot in virginia, but you do one here?

[Tom Jensen]

We weren't going to do one of our final 2011 polls somewhere where the only thing we had to ask about was the generic ballot. In Mississippi we had the Gubernatorial race, two contested down ballot races, and 3 constitutional amendments to look at. If Virginia's Governor's race had been up this year we certainly would have polled it and done a generic legislative ballot as we did in 2009 and as I'm sure we'll do in 2013.

[Steve]

Thanks for this most informative poll on Mississippi. I've been keenly interested in what's going to happen in tomorrow's elections. Did you by any chance poll Mississippi's views on same-sex marriage?

[jeff]

Give me a break. When has Mississippi ever been a democrat state? Of course the republicans are going to have the edge this Tuesday.

[Mose]

"When has Mississippi ever been a democrat state?"

Mississippi started drifting away from the Democratic party at the Presidential level in the 1960's, but that process at the state level took much longer. The Democratic party held a marjority in both chambers of the Mississippi state legislature (the state senate and the state house) from the end of Reconstruction until just after the 2003 election, when the GOP gained control of the state senate for the first time due to multiple party-switchers. Since Reconstruction, the GOP has never had a majority in the state house. Also, following Reconstruction, Mississippi did not elect a GOP governor until 1991, and elected a Democratic governor as recently as 1999.

In fact, the states that made up the Confederacy were often referred to as the "Solid South" from the end of Reconstruction until the mid-1960's because the South basically voted as a block for the candidates of the Democratic party. Things change.

[Dan]

@Jeff, You need to check your history. Mississippi was nearly 100% Democrat throughout the majority of it's history. Only after the era of Reagan did it begin the transformation to Republican.

[NRH]

Mississippi was a solidly Democratic state right up until Democrats decided to stop being the party of racist whites and the Republicans eagerly filled that void. Then it swung to being a Republican state, first at the federal level and devolving down over time to the local levels.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Steve: We did. Those numbers will be out either later this week or early next.

Jeff: Are you kidding me? MS had a Democratic governor (granted, they'd be Republicans today) every year from 1825 to 1870 (with a few exceptions) and again from 1876 to 1992, and then again 2000 to 2004.

[Andrew Carvin]

Our bodies are designed for sex because the process of evolution is powered by sex. You exist today because a lot of people had sex, and naturally people who had the most sex had the most babies. In evolution the people who have the most babies win because whoever has the most babies will be most representative of a species.

Fast forward millions of years, and you end up with humans beings who are healthier when they have sex on a regular basis. It relieves stress, it involves close social contact, promotes well-being, etc. Sex is not optional for most people who want to remain healthy.

At the beginning of human civilization it was necessary to make lots of babies mainly because other than fecundity humans are very ill equipped to deal with the natural world. Comparatively we have poor body strength, immune systems, reflexes, senses, etc even when compared to our closest ape ancestors. We survived our early evolutionary years because we are good at making babies.

Over time, social and technological developments would make baby making less and less important for the survival of the human species because attrition of babies dramatically decreased, and far more survived to adulthood then ever before.

Today we have bodies evolved to need sex, but have sociological and technological developments that make having unnecessary babies detrimental. Babies consume resources, and with most of today’s babies reaching adulthood, not all of those babies will have resources to consume.

This is why free birth control (abortion, pills, etc) is good. Having unnecessary babies causes financial strain on the family, causes strain on societal resources, increases crime, and a host of other negative consequences all of which cost money to fix. By providing free birth control you are avoiding the far more costly consequences of allowing unnecessary babies to be born.

A person's right over what happens to their own body is one of the most precious rights we have. Acknowledgement of this right prevents all manner of atrocities (non-voluntary organ harvesting, slavery, etc), and protects those who do not have enough money/power to be protected otherwise. Without the right to abortion any other rights women have are meaningless as they are only one rape away from being treated subhuman. Every woman should have the right to get an abortion if she chooses to do so.

The fetus is a potential person that looks increasingly human during development. However, without the necessary mental development acquired through experiencing life after birth it is no more a person than a skin cell because it does not have a personality matrix.

Without a personality matrix it is no more a person than a doll made of meat. The only reason that human babies look like “little people” is to engender parental feelings after birth by making them look cute and non-threatening so that we do not kill or eat them. This is something that developed over millions of years of evolution, and can be seen in a wide variety of other animals.

Anti-Abortionists view women as baby factories to pump out units to further their agenda. They don't care about the actual children. If they did they wouldn't orgasm every time the Republitards suggest cutting back on social programs that help/protect mothers/children.

Anti-Abortionists = "We want you to poop out babies until you DIE, and we are not going to help you in any way that actually costs us to take care of all those children. Just make sure you brainwash them to be religious/vote Republican before they die of starvation, or end up in jail. Hurr hurr derp derp."

Religions get their power base mostly by brainwashing innocent children into their warped delusional view of reality. It's a form of enforced mental retardation that I liken to child abuse. So it's really no wonder religions oppose anything that doesn't have women pooping out babies until they die. Reproductive control/choice threatens Religion’s power base.

Here is the fundamental difference between pro-choice, and anti-choice people.

Pro-abortion = Fighting for the right to control their own bodies.

Anti-abortion = Fighting for the right to control the bodies of other people.

Anti-abortionists are evil.

[Obama 2012]

It's interesting that the results here (10% win for NO) are off a bit from your prediction (1% win for YES) ... but certainly not in the direction that those who claim you are biased would expect.

Anyway - the results on this are very encouraging. It's also important to note that Mitt Romney said he supports this amendment. An amendment so far right wing that it fails even in Mississippi. Romney is running for President of the Tea Party, not of the United States. He is not fit for the White House.