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November 25, 2011

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Bryn Tanner

These are GREAT numbers! I was worried that Carmona's relative anonymity would keep him out of contention, but I'm sure as he builds up his name recognition, Arizona voters (tired of GOP bullcrap) will fall in his column. While our chances in Maine and Indiana are depend on tea party primaries, we can win Nevada, Arizona, and Massachusetts in a good environment and hold the Senate with a solid 54-55 seat majority.

Pat

As soon as the GOP nominee starts to tie the Democrat to Obama and his failed policies, Republicans will win this seat. The Dems have a ceiling of 44-45%. Keep dreaming about Nevada too.

Moshe

The numbers don't make sense. Sorry.

realnrh

I suspect that Flake's numbers with black and Hispanic voters will decline once the campaign gets seriously underway and his positions become better known. With only an 8% black sample, though, the margin gets pretty big on that crosstab. Also notable is that Carmona leads outright with the female vote in the head-to-head already; that could be a very significant factor in the race.

Mark B.

Here's hoping! I was sure Gabby Giffords was our only shot, and then when she faced tragedy, I wrote this race off. Maybe Arizonans are ready for Democratic representation!

Obama 2012

Another possibility: The Republicans nominate a truly terrible candidate like Newt Gingrich for President and he drags down the party down ballot.

And really anyone other than Romney = "truly terrible." Romney's just bad.

Stephen Corbin

When people discover who Rich Carmona is as a person and as a proven patriot, they will quickly move in his direction. It has zero to do with party. Arizonans are independent as all get out. They deserve someone like Carmona and they have the opportunity.

Arizona needs a leader like Carmona and certainly our nation does.

Terry Hickey

Who would have thought that AZ voters would toss Russell Pierce out of the AZ government. The way that many republicans have shot themselves in the foot (likely with the states official firearm) There is a more cautious look at people running for office who are very polarizing. Actually I often tell my friends that our elected officials are just this side of rigid and stuck in the 1950's I believe that in fact Carmona will win especially in a long campaign.

Bruce M.

Arizona is certainly very much possible for Democrats to carry in statewide races. Bill Clinton carried AZ in 1996. In 2006, Janet Napolitano won re-election as Governor with 62.5% of the vote, and Attorney General Terry Goddard also won. With no statewide incumbents on the ballot this year, the Republicans may find it more challenging than they expect.

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