Dems competitive in AZ-Sen

The race to replace Jon Kyl in the Senate from Arizona is looking competitive, with Republican Jeff Flake leading Democrat Richard Carmona by only a 40-36 margin.

Flake and Carmona both have good favorability numbers with the voters who are familiar with them.  33% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of Flake to 27% with a negative one. Carmona barely has half of Flake's name recognition but his numbers break down 17% positive to 11% negative with the few voters that know who he is.

Carmona is seen favorably by a 13/12 spread even by Republicans, probably owing to his past as a Bush appointee, and he gets 10% of the GOP vote against Flake. That's more crossover support than we've been seeing for most Democrats in the last few years. Flake takes 12% of the Democratic vote though, and has an early 29-26 lead with independents.

Carmona's early competitiveness has a lot to do with strong support from Hispanic voters. He leads Flake 56-19 with them in his bid to become the state's first Hispanic Senator.

Carmona is looking clearly like a stronger candidate than Don Bivens, the other major Democrat in the field. Bivens trails Flake by a 10 point margin, 42-32. Carmona also does a lot better than Bivens against Republican hopeful Wil Cardon- Carmona trails by only 2 points at 35-33, while Bivens faces an 8 point deficit at 35-27.

With the Senate landscape in 2012 offering Democrats few opportunities for offense these numbers suggest Arizona may provide the party's 3rd best chance of picking up a GOP held seat next year, behind only Massachusetts and Nevada.

Full results here

Comments

[Bryn Tanner]

These are GREAT numbers! I was worried that Carmona's relative anonymity would keep him out of contention, but I'm sure as he builds up his name recognition, Arizona voters (tired of GOP bullcrap) will fall in his column. While our chances in Maine and Indiana are depend on tea party primaries, we can win Nevada, Arizona, and Massachusetts in a good environment and hold the Senate with a solid 54-55 seat majority.

[Pat]

As soon as the GOP nominee starts to tie the Democrat to Obama and his failed policies, Republicans will win this seat. The Dems have a ceiling of 44-45%. Keep dreaming about Nevada too.

[Moshe]

The numbers don't make sense. Sorry.

[realnrh]

I suspect that Flake's numbers with black and Hispanic voters will decline once the campaign gets seriously underway and his positions become better known. With only an 8% black sample, though, the margin gets pretty big on that crosstab. Also notable is that Carmona leads outright with the female vote in the head-to-head already; that could be a very significant factor in the race.

[Mark B.]

Here's hoping! I was sure Gabby Giffords was our only shot, and then when she faced tragedy, I wrote this race off. Maybe Arizonans are ready for Democratic representation!

[Obama 2012]

Another possibility: The Republicans nominate a truly terrible candidate like Newt Gingrich for President and he drags down the party down ballot.

And really anyone other than Romney = "truly terrible." Romney's just bad.

[Stephen Corbin]

When people discover who Rich Carmona is as a person and as a proven patriot, they will quickly move in his direction. It has zero to do with party. Arizonans are independent as all get out. They deserve someone like Carmona and they have the opportunity.

Arizona needs a leader like Carmona and certainly our nation does.

[Terry Hickey]

Who would have thought that AZ voters would toss Russell Pierce out of the AZ government. The way that many republicans have shot themselves in the foot (likely with the states official firearm) There is a more cautious look at people running for office who are very polarizing. Actually I often tell my friends that our elected officials are just this side of rigid and stuck in the 1950's I believe that in fact Carmona will win especially in a long campaign.

[Bruce M.]

Arizona is certainly very much possible for Democrats to carry in statewide races. Bill Clinton carried AZ in 1996. In 2006, Janet Napolitano won re-election as Governor with 62.5% of the vote, and Attorney General Terry Goddard also won. With no statewide incumbents on the ballot this year, the Republicans may find it more challenging than they expect.