« Mississippi Voters on a Variety of Topics | Main | California favors gay marriage, legal marijuana »

November 18, 2011


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.


Intriguing polling, thanks.


You know, I took some time to crunch the numbers from your MS poll and discuss them in what I believe was a thoughtful comment, a comment which has now disappeared. If you want to have your readers post anything more substantive than "First!," don't banish their comments to the nether world.

On CA, as with MS, TX, MO and SC, we see a very clear erosion in opposition to gay marriage. But the opposition moves to undecided, not to support. Here, opposition has eroded an amazing 9% in the 3 years since Prop 8. But PPP shows support at exactly where it was in Nov. 2008. The 9% went to undecided.
In all of these states, opposition to civil unions plummets and outright support for civil unions goes dramatically up, but that has no real practical significance in CA, which already has civil unions. Although it is puzzling that the pro-gay side hasn't managed to close the deal with these defectors, I think that if there were a rematch the pro-gay side would have a very good chance of snaring 2 out of every 9 of those undecideds for a win.

The latest slew of PPP polls does seem to bear out a finding of Nate Silver: as opposition to gay marriage declines, the pro-gay trend accelerates. So in a very hostile state like MS in which 86% voted to ban gay marriage in 2004, you have opposition to gay marriage eroding at about 1% per year. By contrast, in CA, which had opposition at only 52% in 2008, you get a 9% erosion in 3 years, for an annual erosion rate of 3%. This bodes well for states like ME, MD, CO, SD, and IA, where support/oppose levels have been coming into balance, thus laying the groundwork for an expected pro-gay acceleration. In states like MS, SC and AL, assuming current trends continue, you are looking at 2 decades before you get to the acceleration point.

Tom Jensen

Be patient. We get around to moderating comments eventually but all the work that goes into actually conducting the polls is always going to be a higher priority.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2017

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them
–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

For more information on hiring PPP for your polling needs click here

Among the Best Pollsters, Year after Year.

2014 :
Rated Most Accurate Pollster in Governor’s Races Nationally

2012 :
Correctly predicted the winner of every state in the Presidential race, and the winner of every major Senate race

2010 :
First pollster to predict Scott Brown’s upset win over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, only pollster to predict Christine O’Donnell’s upset victory over Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican Senate primary.

2008 :
Ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the 2nd most accurate swing state pollster in the Presidential election.

WSJ Graphic


Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 201
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888.621.6988

Questions or Comments?
Email Us




Dean Debnam Dean Debnam
Public Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations.  Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"

Learn more about working
with PPP for your next project >


Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
RSS Feed RSS Reader