This morning we took suggestions for items on the ballot next Tuesday to poll on. Six things received 5 or more suggestions and we're going to offer 4 of them as options. We're leaving out Maine's vote on same day registration, because we have a poll on that coming out tomorrow anyway. And we're leaving out a Virginia generic legislative ballot poll because I just don't think it would be that useful- we don't know enough about how a statewide poll would equate to numbers of districts being won and lost by each party.
So that leaves Kentucky with a Gubernatorial race and some down ballot stuff, Mississippi with a Gubernatorial race, some down ballot stuff, and some proposed amendments, Ohio with some proposed amendments, and the Iowa 18th Senate District race that will determine the balance of power in the state.
Voting is open until 5 PM Wednesday, we'll do the top 2, and if it's clear that the same person is casting dozens and dozens and dozens of votes for the same state we'll throw it out. Don't cheat the vote.
I don't see how this is even a close contest. Although PPP's polling provides a valuable service to the public, PPP surely does these state polls in part as a way to market its polling expertise to potential clients. In that regard, it does absolutely nothing for PPP to poll in Kentucky, where the race is a foregone conclusion. It does a little bit more than nothing for PPP to poll in MS.
In contrast, polling IA SD 18 gives PPP the opportunity to once again show off to the world its superior capabilities. Special elections are notoriously difficult to poll. But PPP showed its abilities by accurately calling both the NY-9 race and the WI recall races this year. It is hard to see how PPP could opt not to poll IA SD 18. I'd also note that polling SD 18 would serve a real public service, as there has not been a single poll on that race to date.
Posted by: Gerald | November 01, 2011 at 06:52 PM
Am I right in thinking that KY gets us Prez and MS & OH get us Prez and Sen too?
Posted by: David | November 01, 2011 at 07:34 PM
*** READ THIS ***
In Kentucky the Dem Governor has been shown to have at least a 25 point (you read that correctly) lead in every poll, the state legislature is NOT up at the same time making kentucky the most boring place to poll ever. Don't waste your vote.
Ok, you can stop reading.
-
Anyways it's ridiculous that more people didn't suggest the virginia legislature, and it's more ridiculous that of the current options here Ohio isn't winning. Whatever.
Vote for mississippi or ohio btw, who gives a fuck about some iowa state senate election, I'm assuming the poll is being rigged?
Posted by: dominic | November 01, 2011 at 07:54 PM
I voted for Mississippi because that state hasn't been polled on *anything* since April. The last time Mississippi was polled, Huckabee was winning it.
Iowa and Ohio, on the other hand, get polled here every month or two.
That said, I would be surprised if Iowa and Ohio didn't win, because they win every time you include them as options. Which means we lose yet another chance to get more recent polling data on Mississippi...
Posted by: The Interesting Times | November 01, 2011 at 08:27 PM
If you poll Ohio, make sure to use the EXACT same language on the union question as will appear on the ballot. It seems that there's been some reasonable doubt about your last poll (raised even by the unions that would be happy with the result) due to the phrasing of your question and it would be interesting to control for that variable and see if the unions and working class are still kicking ass or not.
Posted by: Dean | November 01, 2011 at 11:10 PM
I would encourage people to vote for PPP to poll in Mississippi. The last time PPP polled in MS was all the way back in March, while IA (October), OH (October), and KY (September) were all polled much more recently. Back in March, PPP showed Romney leading Obama by only six points (46-40), which represented a seven point improvement by Obama over his 2008 performance (Obama lost to McCain 56-43). However, Obama's numbers declined somewhat over the summer. It would be interesting to see if that decline was reflected in MS, and in any event the change (if any) in the MS numbers from March to November would be more informative than the changes in the other states over only a month or two.
Posted by: Mose | November 02, 2011 at 09:42 AM
For those who don't know, if the R's win the Iowa 18th election, there will be untrammeled GOP havoc in Iowa for the next year.
Posted by: Mike A | November 02, 2011 at 11:46 AM