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November 30, 2011


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Yep, AZ likes the Tea Party.


Very interesting, I didn't expect to see dead even support/opposition for same-sex marriage (I thought it would be must more conservative). It's a pretty red state, but maybe the fact that it's in the West has something to do with it? I look forward to hopefully seeing Montana's level of support after this.

Thanks so much for polling the same-sex marriage questions in so many states recently, it's honestly fascinating to see the variations in support in different states across the nation. And it's clarifying the nuances of state-by-state and regional support that can never be discovered by national polls. Great work!


AZ shows exactly the same pattern seen in every other state:

- Significant drop in opposition to SSM (11 points in 3 years);

- Insignificant increase in support for SSM (.2% in 3 years)

- Explosive growth in support for civil unions (24% in 5 years) and a correspondingly dramatic collapse in opposition to civil unions (25% in 5 years)

(One small point of clarification on the blog post, the failed 2006 referendum would have banned both SSM and civil unions; it was not targeted solely at civil unions. However, the 2006 proposition failed (48-52) precisely because it swept in civil unions, and this was the focus of the opposition campaign. So on that basis, it is a good basis on which to compare support/opposition levels with the PPP poll.)

The AZ pattern can be seen in PPP's recent polls in NE, TX, MO, SC, NC, MS, etc. It is very clear that what is happening in red and purple states across the country is a phased process by which opposition to SSM declines and shifts to support for civil unions. Voters are not prepared to go from a no to a yes directly on SSM, but need a bridge. All historical data suggest that this will be followed by a shift from support for civil unions to SSM and that this second phase will be dramatically accelerated following the adoption of civil unions in any given state. 9 states now have civil unions and it is in these states that we should expect to see the accelerated second phase of the shift.

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