Arizona Miscellany

-If you want to see the extent to which public opinion is shifting on gay marriage, just look at Arizona.  In 2008 the state's voters passed a gay marriage ban by a 56-44 margin. Now they're almost evenly divided on the issue with only 45% of voters in the state saying they think it should be illegal and 44% thinking it should be legal. When you look at the age breakdown on this issue you can see where public opinion is headed: 48% of seniors think gay marriage should not be allowed, while only 39% think it should be. But among voters under 30, 57% think it should be legal to only 25% who think it should be illegal.  Looking at those numbers I'm pretty confident that by 2020- or maybe even 2016- voters in the state would pass a proposition to legalize gay marriage.

In 2006 Arizonans voted down a proposed ban that would also have targeted civil unions and these numbers show why that happened- 72% of voters, including even 59% of Republicans, support some type of legal recognition for same sex couples either in the form of full marriage rights or civil unions.  Just 27% are totally opposed to any kind of recognition.

-Just out of curiosity we asked Arizonans to look back and give us their thoughts on Barry Goldwater and he has poll numbers that any politician in the state would love to have: 51% of voters see him favorably to only 20% with an unfavorable opinion. 30% have no opinion one way or the other, and unsurprisingly those folks skew to the young side on the age spectrum. What's maybe most interesting about Goldwater's numbers is that he does pretty well across party lines. Certainly Republicans (65/9) and independents (53/16) give him his best reviews, as you would expect. But even with Democrats he's on favorable ground at 34/32. History is treating him well, at least on the home front.

-Arizona State is the favorite college of voters in the state with 36% choosing it to 29% for Arizona and 16% for Northern Arizona.  Interestingly this is a partisan issue with the Sun Devils favored 45-25 by Republicans, but the Wildcats winning out 37-30 with Democrats.

Arizona voters built up loyalties to a variety of different baseball teams with Spring Training ties to the state before 1998, when the Diamondbacks began playing. But our numbers suggest their hearts quickly transferred to the home town team- 65% of Arizonans say that the Diamondbacks are their favorite baseball team with no one else even achieving double digits- the Cubs are at 6%, the Rockies at 5%, the Yankees at 4%, the Angels and Giants at 2%, and the A's and Padres at only 1%.

Arizonans aren't as supportive of the Cardinals- only 49% pick them as their favorite NFL team to 8% for the Packers, 6% for the Broncos, 5% for the Cowboys and 49ers, 3% for the Chargers, and 2% for the Raiders and Steelers.

-Arizona is one state where the Occupy Wall Street movement is not making a good impression- only 36% of voters say they support its goals to 44% who express opposition. Meanwhile they're closely divided on the Tea Party with 44% of voters indicating support for that movement and 42% against it. Asked which of the two they like better voters choose the Tea Party by a 45-37 margin, including a 47-32 spread with independents.

Full results here

Comments

[Moshe]

Yep, AZ likes the Tea Party.

[Tt88]

Very interesting, I didn't expect to see dead even support/opposition for same-sex marriage (I thought it would be must more conservative). It's a pretty red state, but maybe the fact that it's in the West has something to do with it? I look forward to hopefully seeing Montana's level of support after this.

Thanks so much for polling the same-sex marriage questions in so many states recently, it's honestly fascinating to see the variations in support in different states across the nation. And it's clarifying the nuances of state-by-state and regional support that can never be discovered by national polls. Great work!

[Gerald]

AZ shows exactly the same pattern seen in every other state:

- Significant drop in opposition to SSM (11 points in 3 years);

- Insignificant increase in support for SSM (.2% in 3 years)

- Explosive growth in support for civil unions (24% in 5 years) and a correspondingly dramatic collapse in opposition to civil unions (25% in 5 years)

(One small point of clarification on the blog post, the failed 2006 referendum would have banned both SSM and civil unions; it was not targeted solely at civil unions. However, the 2006 proposition failed (48-52) precisely because it swept in civil unions, and this was the focus of the opposition campaign. So on that basis, it is a good basis on which to compare support/opposition levels with the PPP poll.)

The AZ pattern can be seen in PPP's recent polls in NE, TX, MO, SC, NC, MS, etc. It is very clear that what is happening in red and purple states across the country is a phased process by which opposition to SSM declines and shifts to support for civil unions. Voters are not prepared to go from a no to a yes directly on SSM, but need a bridge. All historical data suggest that this will be followed by a shift from support for civil unions to SSM and that this second phase will be dramatically accelerated following the adoption of civil unions in any given state. 9 states now have civil unions and it is in these states that we should expect to see the accelerated second phase of the shift.