Scott Walker's approval numbers are continuing to improve, making the prospect of recalling him look much tougher for Democrats than it did during the spring.
Walker's still not popular- 47% of voters approve of him, compared to 51% who disapprove. But those numbers represent continuing improvement over the course of the year. He hit his lowest point in PPP's polling in May at 43/54. By August he'd improved to 45/53, and now that improvement has continued over the last couple months. Republicans continue to stand pretty uniformly behind Walker, and Democrats pretty uniformly against him. Where the shift is occurring is with independents. In May only 40% approved of him with 56% disapproving. Now those numbers are almost flipped with 52% approving to 44% who disapprove.
Walker's not out of the woods by any means. 48% of voters in the state want to recall him, while 49% are opposed to such a move. But it's not clear if Democrats will have a candidate strong enough to unseat Walker. The only one who beats him in a hypothetical recall is Russ Feingold. But Feingold's already said he's probably not going to run, and his margin over Walker is just 3 points at 49-46. In May Feingold led Walker 52-42 and in August Feingold had a 52-45 advantage. So even with their strongest possible candidate Democrats' prospects against Walker are slipping.
We tested a whole laundry list of other potential challengers to Walker. 2010 foe Tom Barrett comes closest, but trails Walker 48-46. In May Barrett had a 50-43 advantage in a potential redo. After Barrett the Democrat who comes next closest is David Obey, who trails 47-42. Peter Barca and Ron Kind both trail by 6 points at 48-42 and 47-41 respectively. Jon Erpenbach is down by 7 at 47-40. And Kathleen Falk and Steve Kagen each trail by 8 at 49-41 and 47-39 respectively.
None of the Democrats except Barrett, Feingold, and Obey have greater than 50% name recognition so they'd likely pull closer if any of them actually became the candidate in a recall election. Here's something to keep in mind though: in all of the State Senate elections we were polling over the summer, public opinion moved against recall in the closing days. And that seemed to be the case whether it was a Democratic or Republican State Senator on the ballot. If the recall election was today, Democrats would have just a little bit under a 50% chance of recalling Walker. But if that trend continues of support for the recall declining as election day nears, the chance of Democrats booting Walker from office would continue going down.
None of that is necessarily to say Democrats shouldn't try to recall Walker. Six months from now his approval numbers might be right back in the low 40s and voters might be eager to recall him. But where things stand today the prospects for a Walker recall look much more dim than they did in the late spring and early summer.
One final note on the poll- by a 46-43 margin voters wish Democrats had control of the State Senate, just another data point about how closely divided the state is right now.
Full results here
Wisconsin is running in the black right now. This is a big cost to our state which is not needed. Another clue that the, big boss labor unions are holding our state in hostage.
Posted by: Patricia Simmons | October 26, 2011 at 07:06 PM
Look, I don't really like Walker any more than I did Doyle before him. But when you come to me about voting to recall him (as a couple of friends have), I just say that I will if, and only if, there's some criminal or ethical breach and/or some serious dereliction of duty that would result in irreparable harm to the State. Otherwise, a governor gets 4 years to show us what he can do.
I never heard or thought about a recall of Doyle in his last term. Clearly, in my opinion, it was time for him to go and not time for a successor in his likeness, but that's what scheduled elections are all about.
Posted by: Terry Ott | October 26, 2011 at 08:24 PM
The people voted their wishes last November. Walker won. The state is doing much better budgetwise than just a year ago. Any taxpayer in the state should be pleased with no tax increases. The loud, noisy, immature "protesters" do not represent me and the hundreds of thousands of other registered voters made our voice heard last November.
Posted by: Pjohnson | October 26, 2011 at 11:08 PM
That's funny Patricia, because I doubt you were complaining when Republicans ran fake primaries against Democratic candidates, which cost tax payers about $500,000.
And if Wisconsin is running in the black, maybe Republican politicians in Wisconsin shouldn't have spent $7.5 million (to implement a voter ID law) to solve a problem (voter fraud) that does not exist.
As for big boss labor unions holding your state hostage -- how so? Republicans control power in every branch of Wisconsin state government. Any hostage taking by unions is a reality only in your mind.
Regarding Walker, he will very tough to recall because, like Terry, there are voters who sympathize with voting against him, but are against the very idea of a recall, and thus will vote to keep him in office.
Posted by: sportsman885 | October 26, 2011 at 11:50 PM
Wait until the Justice Dept. investigation hits the fan.
Posted by: Wisco | October 27, 2011 at 10:14 AM
sportsman885, there is no voter fraud in Wisconsin??? Democrats are well known for this, plus slashing tires on election day and so forth. There is a reason why the democrats have a donkey as their face of their party because their jackasses.
We need an ID for everything else, I guess you should be complaining about that also then uh? Hypocrite is is what a hypocrite does! Normally there are 2 elections dates in a election year. 365 days in a year. You telling me someone cannot find the time in 363 days of the year to get a state ID? Oh my gosh, how are they getting other services without ID? Face it, people have IDs and Walker is even paying for people that doesn't have IDs because he wants no excuse for people not having the money and not being able to vote. Unlike Democrats, Republicans wants all voters no matter what. You guys are too busy trying to shut everybody up that you are to ignorant to understand this.
Unions have been a part of the major problem of driving away business for the last 100 years. Look at all the states/cities that has had democratic party rule for the last 50 or more years. Notice how they are the worst of the bunch. Now, notice the cities/states that have conservative party rule for the last 50 or more years, notice how they are run a lot better and in most cases are in the black. You see Democrat cities and states in the RED. That is a fact you cannot ignore or try to pretend isn't there.
Posted by: Keith Hendrickson | October 27, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Keith Hendrickson,
There are a few things wrong with your post.
1. Sportsman885 is correct. voter fraud is not a problem as the non-partisan Brennan Center has reported. You can read it yourself here http://www.brennancenter.org/content/section/category/allegations_of_voter_fraud
2.Walker is offering free ID's but he has told people not to talk about this. So people who aren't aware of this paid for their ID-which is unconstitutional poll tax.
3. Public sector unions which were the main target of Walker were started in the 1960's, so I'm not sure how they've been "problems" for over 100 years. Also I don't see see any evidence that unions drove business away during prosperous years like the post war boom.
4. Your claim that blue states are the worst in the bunch doesn't hold up. Unless you live in North Dakota or Montana your state has budget problems. It's true that California and Illinois are in bad shape but so are Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. Also I don't know of a state that's been under mostly one party rule for 50 plus years. Unless your referring to the post civil war Dixiecrats.
5. Look up the fallacy "poisoning the well" you've heavily abused it here.
Marczen Y'cousa IV
Posted by: Marczen Y'cousa | November 02, 2011 at 12:39 AM
GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER'S reforms are working. Here's proof...www.reforms.wi.gov -and- www.itsworkingwisconsin.com
Posted by: Keith Best | November 02, 2011 at 02:48 PM
I love the people who comment online how Walker balanced the budget without raising taxes. No, he just took $4- $6,000 from each public union person in the state. If I ran a company into the ground then made my employees pay to get me out, would I be a hero? The unions didn't cause our state deficit. It's a state government that hasn't learned to save a surplus for the last 30 years. To most of you Walker's a great guy as long as it's not YOUR money he took.
Posted by: Debbie Tassoul | November 09, 2011 at 04:55 AM
Marczen Y'cousa IV
There are a few things wrong with your post.
1. Sportsman885 is correct. voter fraud is not a problem as the non-partisan Brennan Center has reported. You can read it yourself here http://www.brennancenter.org/content/section/category/allegations_of_voter_fraud
(Obviously you are not involved enough to see there is. Wasn't a Democrat state legislator of Indiana just arrested and convicted of 20 some counts of voter fraud in Indiana (I think that is the state)? Voter ID would have prevented that. Also another study shows stats with voter ID have more voters coming out VS before they had them. Why does your beloved unions require ID when they vote internally? Ummmm, I guess unions only like IDs when it only benefits them and they cannot vote the dead with voter ID in place so therefore they are against it!
2.Walker is offering free ID's but he has told people not to talk about this. So people who aren't aware of this paid for their ID-which is unconstitutional poll tax.
Really, every channel on TV told its views repeatedly this fact. Unless you guys now cannot hear and see, I do not see how this lie you can spread with a clear conscience. How about admit you are wrong and admit that we are in the black in 8 months under Walker after 8 years of red because of Doyle.
3. Public sector unions which were the main target of Walker were started in the 1960's, so I'm not sure how they've been "problems" for over 100 years. Also I don't see see any evidence that unions drove business away during prosperous years like the post war boom.
Hello, have you not seen our companies leave because they cannot compete with the public sector outrageous job benefits and government over taxation and regulation? You must really live in a cave.
4. Your claim that blue states are the worst in the bunch doesn't hold up. Unless you live in North Dakota or Montana your state has budget problems. It's true that California and Illinois are in bad shape but so are Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. Also I don't know of a state that's been under mostly one party rule for 50 plus years. Unless your referring to the post civil war Dixiecrats.
Texas is one of the best states right now. In fact, the 5 best states are RED and always was! How about you look at NY, Oakland, Chicago, California and Milwaukee for example. Now look at cities and states that were run by conservatives for the most part. Notice how the Red beats the blue every time!
5. Look up the fallacy "poisoning the well" you've heavily abused it here.
looks like you have a lot to "look up here" and really been either spreading the unions lies or are that very ignorant of the issues.
Posted by: Keith E. Hendrickson | January 16, 2012 at 12:01 AM
Debbie Tassoul
RE: I love the people who comment online how Walker balanced the budget without raising taxes. No, he just took $4- $6,000 from each public union person in the state. If I ran a company into the ground then made my employees pay to get me out, would I be a hero? The unions didn't cause our state deficit. It's a state government that hasn't learned to save a surplus for the last 30 years. To most of you Walker's a great guy as long as it's not YOUR money he took.
The problem with your comment is that the private sector is who pays the taxes and pays the public sector paychecks. When a public worker gets payed it gets payed by the government which in turn got paid by the private sector. The taxes that the public sector pays comes from the same pot of income that they originally got paid in the first place from the private sector. So it is safe to say the private sector pays our own taxes and public sector taxes.
The public sector really has no say in this matter since they are still very well compensated by better benefits than the actual tax payers pay yet public sector workers still show their childish ungratefulness.
Also we the tax payers (private sector) always have been paying you out. So how does that make you a hero who shows their ungratefulness? I agree with your question and would really like for you to answer that one!
As more public sector jobs are starting to become more than the public sector jobs that can keep up with the money that the government needs to pay the public sector, the state no longer can afford to give these benefits free of charge. Unlike the public workers think, MONEY does not grow on trees and no unlike the federal government, no state can print money at will just to hide their fiscal mess they put themselves in.
The unions DID cause this state deficit, because collective bargaining was the problem, because in the public sector there is no such thing as bargaining. Instead of the elected officials looks at the best interest of the state they are paid off by the UNIONS. So when they are bargaining per-say, the elected officials instead of working for the people that elected them, they work for the people who paid them. They have been paying off school boards across the state and having the power to squeeze every country, town and city for the maximum benefit of the union bosses. Ever notice your union boss Trumpka who visits with Obama in the White House 4 times a week who drives a $90,000 car yet says he feels your pain? AFO-CIO boss you know the ones behind those fists with the red background. They sure know how to use you puppets like useful idiots like dictator Lenin (Russia) penned you guys.
Posted by: Keith E. Hendrickson | January 16, 2012 at 12:17 AM
Few Corrections:
Debbie Tassoul
RE: I love the people who comment online how Walker balanced the budget without raising taxes. No, he just took $4- $6,000 from each public union person in the state. If I ran a company into the ground then made my employees pay to get me out, would I be a hero? The unions didn't cause our state deficit. It's a state government that hasn't learned to save a surplus for the last 30 years. To most of you Walker's a great guy as long as it's not YOUR money he took.
The problem with your comment is that the private sector is who pays the taxes and pays the public sector paychecks. When a public worker gets payed it gets payed by the government which in turn got paid by the private sector. The taxes that the public sector pays comes from the same pot of income that they originally got paid in the first place from the private sector. So it is safe to say the private sector pays it's own taxes and public sector taxes.
The public sector really has no say in this matter since they are still very well compensated by better benefits than the actual tax payers pay yet public sector workers still show their childish ungratefulness.
Also we the tax payers (private sector) always have been paying you out. So how does that make you a hero who shows their ungratefulness? I agree with your question and would really like for you to answer that one!
As more public sector jobs are starting to become more than the private sector jobs that can keep up with the money that the government needs to pay the public sector, the state no longer can afford to give these benefits free of charge. Unlike the public workers think, MONEY does not grow on trees and no, unlike the federal government, no state can print money at will just to hide their fiscal mess they put themselves in.
The unions DID cause this state deficit, because collective bargaining was the problem, because in the public sector there is no such thing as bargaining. Instead of the elected officials looks at the best interest of the state they are paid off by the UNIONS. So when they are bargaining per-say, the elected officials instead of working for the people that elected them, they work for the people who paid them. They have been paying off school boards across the state and having the power to squeeze every country, town and city for the maximum benefit of the union bosses. Ever notice your union boss Trumpka who visits with Obama in the White House 4 times a week who drives a $90,000 car yet says he feels your pain? AFO-CIO boss you know the ones behind those fists with the red background. You know the fist which represents millions killed by socialist murderers? Do some history on that fist. If you still support the unions, you obviously are a supporter of thugs and murder. They sure know how to use you like useful idiots like dictator Lenin (Russia) penned you guys.
Posted by: Keith E. Hendrickson | January 22, 2012 at 06:17 AM
Pointing to Walker's websites as proof that things are improving doesn't exactly ring true. Problem is, it's often difficult to determine whether a governor is taking the correct approach, because we're often left wondering what would have happened had the Governor done things differently. Fortunately, this time around we don't have to wonder so much, because all we need to do is compare Walker's approach with that of Governor Dayton in Minnesota. The situations in the two States were surprisingly similar when Walker was sworn in. Both State had balanced budgets at the time, but those budgets would have ballooned to large deficits if past levels of spending had continued. And, both States had their entire legislatures under Republican control. Minnesota took a different approach though, where they spread out the pain of the cuts rather than target certain segments of the population. The Minnesota governor also vetoed Republican bills to cut corporate taxes, strip unions of their rights, implement voter id, etc., etc. The stark difference in the governing approach taken in the two States allows us to easily compare statistics to determine which approach is really creating jobs, and putting a State in better financial position. To compare, Wisconsin's unemployment rate in December, 2011, was 7.1%... Minnesota's was 5.7%. Wisconsin has had six straight months of job losses (more jobs lost than any State in the country)... Minnesota has had six straight months of job increases. In addition, Minnesota just announced an $876 million dollar surplus.
Having said all that, I'm not trying to make the point that all Republican policies are bad. What I'm saying, is that implementing a far right OR far left political agenda is very expensive for government, and not something that should be done in a poor economy. The results of Walker's approach was predictable, but his zeal to push a far right agenda overrode common sense. In addition, his inexperience and mismanagement on a variety of issues is causing unending division in this State, pitting teachers vs. parents, unions vs. non-union, and private sector vs. government. It's also prompting a brain drain in education and government with up to 10% of our best and brightest quitting their professions. For these reasons, Walker deserves to be recalled.
Posted by: Brent | January 25, 2012 at 05:25 PM
Oops. PPP is still pushing heavily for Walker but has been wrong on the issue all the way through. "Recall unlikely?" This is what you were posting in October and November. Now you say, most Wisconsinites (even though they may have signed the recall petitions) don't want Walker removed. Apparently PPP is just another hack propaganda tool for the right wing, a la Rassmussen.
Posted by: errol44 | February 11, 2012 at 01:08 PM
Umm, you people do understand PPP is a left wing group, right?
Reporting the facts doesnt make them 'supportive' of the results.
Posted by: pfkap | February 11, 2012 at 06:57 PM
"...Apparently PPP is just another hack propaganda tool for the right wing, a la Rassmussen..."
Well, I for one am stunned that PPP is a tool for Kochland. Shocked, dismayed, and flabbergasted. Here I thought PPP was a liberal meme ala Kennedy...........
Posted by: mjcc1987 | February 11, 2012 at 07:00 PM