The race for Governor of West Virginia is looking more and more like a toss up, with Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin now leading Republican Bill Maloney only 47-46. Tomblin's lead was 46-40 on a poll conducted at the beginning of September and he had led by as large a margin as 33 points earlier in the year.
A lot of money has been spent on attacking Tomblin in the closing weeks of the campaign and that appears to be taking its toll on the Governor's image. His net approval has dropped 13 points in the last four weeks from +25 (50/25) to just +12 (44/32). Attempts to saddle Tomblin with the burden of Barack Obama might be having an impact as well- the President's approval in the state is just 28%, with 63% of voters disapproving of him.
When we polled West Virginia a month ago Maloney led by 65 points with Republicans and 5 points with independents. He currently leads by 65 points with Republicans and 4 points with independents. So there's basically been no change with those voting groups. The shift that's occurred has been with Democrats. Maloney's share of their vote has increased from 17% to 24%, while Tomblin has remained in place at 69%. Maloney has particularly made in roads with conservative Democrats- they now support Tomblin by only a 49-43 margin.
Maloney has proven to be a pretty appealing candidate. 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 33% with a negative one. This race is pretty unusual for the current political climate in that the electorate has a positive opinion of both candidates. But the momentum has been exclusively on Maloney's side over the course of the last 5 months.
One other thing in this poll points to the unique popularity of Joe Manchin- just as a hypothetical we looked to see how Maloney would do if he lost the Gubernatorial race and then challenged Manchin next year. Manchin, who has a 61% approval rating, would lead Maloney by a 31 point margin at 60-29. So he is basically 30 points stronger than Tomblin.
It looks like this race could go either way tomorrow. Maloney's biggest enemy might be the clock- given the overwhelming momentum he's had another month and you have to think he would almost definitely pull out this race. But Tomblin may yet be able to hang on by the skin of his teeth.
Full results here
Obama has been expediting in West Virginia what's been happening in the entire South: Democratic collapse. When it comes to social issues and Obama disapproval, West Virginia is possibly the most conservative state in the Union and Dems are highly unlikely to hold onto absolute power in WV state politics much longer. Additionally, I seriously doubt that Dems will be able to hold onto both US Senate seats in the state for much longer.
The Democratic Party's future in the state is actually very dire. The state is 93% white and just 3.4% black and 1.2% Hispanic and most of the long-term trends are highly unfavorable for the Dems.
Posted by: SC Guy | October 03, 2011 at 10:49 AM
This would explain why the GOP dumped a bunch of money in the DC media market over the weekend. They are hoping to push up GOP turnout in eastern panhandle.
Posted by: Zornorph | October 03, 2011 at 10:55 AM
I live in Md and they have been running non stop anti Tomlin ads totally tying him to Obama and Obama care.Manchin may save him though. Maloney is running a campaign against Obama not Tomlin.
Posted by: joel | October 03, 2011 at 11:02 AM
A vote for the democrat is a vote for the failed policies of Obummer.
Maloney wins!
Posted by: Neal Sears | October 03, 2011 at 01:03 PM
What is so appalling about WVA, is that Dems and Obama are under the table trying to make a legal entity like the coal industry look evil and they are trying to make it ....just fade away as if thousands of companies , workers, towns are not still interested in a huge energy source which can be made CLEAN and give electricity to many many people. Bama is so sold on the green tripe that he would kill an entire state, lie about it and try to get Dems re-elected or elected just to keep the myth going that the DNC is pro-Southern . Yikes.
Posted by: Glenn Koons, LB, Ca. | October 03, 2011 at 05:00 PM
"Obama has been expediting in West Virginia what's been happening in the entire South"
...except North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. The former two are moving toward the Democrats, not away, as their populations grow.
Posted by: Dustin Ingalls | October 03, 2011 at 05:46 PM
Those I talk with want Obama out of office. And many of the people who voted for him say never again. We can only hope this attitude spreads across the nation. If democrats in this state were liberal, their chances of winning would be near impossible. Obama has a 28% approval rating, but I know of no one who vote for for him. Not even the democrat party leaders here want him re-elected.
Posted by: Sherlock | October 04, 2011 at 11:55 AM
This probably doesn't mean much nationally - but it's still nice to see the Democrats win this race. I'm hoping it's a sign that Tea Party insanity is on the wane.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | October 04, 2011 at 10:38 PM
Congratulations on getting the numbers right!
Posted by: George | October 05, 2011 at 01:06 PM