Public Policy Polling

North Carolina/Maine Question Suggestions

The winner of our vote on where to poll this week was Maine and we're also due for our monthly North Carolina poll.

In Maine I am particularly interested in who we should test for the Senate, both against Olympia Snowe in the primary, and on the Democratic side in the general election.

We'll do the standard Presidential stuff in both states and the Governor's race in North Carolina, as well as approvals on the major politicians in each state. Beyond that stuff, what would you like to see us ask about in North Carolina and Maine? Thanks as always for the good suggestions...

Heller, Berkley in dead heat in Nevada

Raleigh, N.C. – Having recently been appointed to fill the rest of John Ensign’s unexpired Senate term, Dean Heller’s bid for his own six years could not be any closer.  Likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Shelley Berkley, ties Heller at 45% in PPP’s latest poll of the race, the first since July, when Heller led, 46-43.

The entire movement in the horse race is with Democrats, who are starting to consolidate behind Berkley as they become more aware that she is their candidate.  In July, only 75% of her party were behind her, with 11% for Heller.  That is now 82-14, almost matching Heller’s 83% of the GOP, though Berkley pulls only 8% of Republicans, up just a tick from 6%.  Heller maintains a two-point lead with independents, but they are less than a fifth of the electorate.  Republicans are twice as numerous, and Democrats more than that.

Tie in Nevada

After trailing by as much as 13 points earlier this year, Shelley Berkley has moved into a tie with Dean Heller in the Nevada Senate race at 45%.

On PPP's last poll, in late July, Heller had led 46-43. The main thing that's happened since then is Berkley has consolidated the Democratic vote. Previously she was getting just 75% of the vote from within her own party, but that's now up to 82%, pretty comparable to Heller's 83% of the Republican vote. On all 3 previous PPP surveys of the race this year, all of which Heller had held the lead on, he was getting a much larger share of the GOP vote than Berkley was getting of the Democratic vote. With that gap erased, so is his lead.

When you dig deeper into the numbers on this poll you really see the makings of a race that could be a toss up all the way through next November.  Heller's approval rating is a 39/35 spread. Berkley's favorability rating is a 38/35 spread. In addition to both candidates getting nearly identical shares of the vote from their parties, independents split nearly evenly as well with Heller holding a 39-37 advantage. Berkley has a 52-38 advantage with women. Heller has a 52-38 advantage with men.

Scott Walker improves in prospective recall races

Raleigh, N.C. – Scott Walker has been a divisive governor, for sure, but he is no longer among the most unpopular governors in the country.  And though Democrats may get the requisite numbers of signatures to recall him, Wisconsinites do not have much desire to actually see him leave office before he is up for re-election naturally in 2014.

Walker’s approval rating is up since PPP last polled the state in August, with 47% approving and 51% disapproving, versus 45-53.  PPP has found 11 governors whose constituents like them less this year.  Walker has inched up a bit with his own party, and independents have flipped in the last three months, from 44-53 to 52-44.  The number of folks saying they would like Walker to be recalled is up a hair from 47% to 48%, and the ones who do not want him yanked down from 50% to 49%.  But that is a negligible difference.  All of that change is from Democrats, frustrated after failing to take over the state senate, becoming more resolute in opposing Walker.  Independents are less in favor of another recall campaign since August, opposing it 40-57, versus 46-50.

Wisconsin Recall Prospects Dimming

Scott Walker's approval numbers are continuing to improve, making the prospect of recalling him look much tougher for Democrats than it did during the spring.

Walker's still not popular- 47% of voters approve of him, compared to 51% who disapprove.  But those numbers represent continuing improvement over the course of the year. He hit his lowest point in PPP's polling in May at 43/54.  By August he'd improved to 45/53, and now that improvement has continued over the last couple months. Republicans continue to stand pretty uniformly behind Walker, and Democrats pretty uniformly against him.  Where the shift is occurring is with independents. In May only 40% approved of him with 56% disapproving. Now those numbers are almost flipped with 52% approving to 44% who disapprove.

Walker's not out of the woods by any means.  48% of voters in the state want to recall him, while 49% are opposed to such a move. But it's not clear if Democrats will have a candidate strong enough to unseat Walker. The only one who beats him in a hypothetical recall is Russ Feingold. But Feingold's already said he's probably not going to run, and his margin over Walker is just 3 points at 49-46.  In May Feingold led Walker 52-42 and in August Feingold had a 52-45 advantage.  So even with their strongest possible candidate Democrats' prospects against Walker are slipping.

Thompson has tenuous lead

Tommy Thompson continues to lead in the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary- but it's an advantage that looks increasingly tenuous.

Thompson's at 35% to 29% for Mark Neumann, 21% for Jeff Fitzgerald, and 4% for Frank Lasee.  That's not a particularly impressive lead given that Thompson's name recognition is 86% compared to 61% for Neumann, 50% for Fitzgerald, and 24% for Lasee. Dig deeper and you see just how risky Thompson's position is- with voters that aren't familiar with either Neumann or Fitzgerald, Thompson leads with 50% t0 19% for Neumann and 9% for Fitzgerald.  But with voters who do know even just one out of Thompson's primary rivals Neumann leads with 33% to 29% for Thompson and 27% for Fitzgerald. 

Wisconsin Republicans will likely be familiar with all of their choices by the time the vote comes around, and these numbers suggest Thompson might find himself in trouble then. We also looked at how he would do in head to heads with his foes. Against Neumann he leads 43-39.  But among voters familiar with Neumann, positive opinion or negative, Thompson trails 50-39.  It's a similar story with Fitzgerald- among all voters Thompson leads a head to head 47-35.  But with voters who actually know Fitzgerald, that turns into a 56-34 deficit for Thompson. None of these numbers bode well for Thompson once his name recognition advantage starts getting erased.

Cain and Romney tied in NV, Tommy Thompson in trouble

Raleigh, N.C. – By all accounts, Herman Cain had a brutal debate in Nevada last week, but it has not hurt his standing in that state at all.  Mitt Romney, the candidate long expected to win the Nevada caucus, as he did in 2008, now leads Cain only 29-28.  When PPP last polled the state in July, that spread was 31-8, as Cain was then tied with Newt Gingrich for fifth out of eight candidates.  As in a lot of states now, Cain has swapped places with Rick Perry, the brief Tea Party hero.  Perry is down from a second-place 18% to a fifth-place 6%.  Michele Bachmann has also plummeted from 14% to 3%, now leading only Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson in the low single digits.  Gingrich has had a more minor surge than Cain, but he has almost doubled his support in the state, up seven points to a third-place 15%.  Ron Paul stands in fourth at 7%, down from 11%.  The one good sign for Romney is that more of his supporters (59%) have made up their minds than Cain’s (41%).  And if the race came down to just those two, the other candidates’ supporters would give Romney a 48-40 buffer.

Another good week for Cain

Herman Cain is getting pretty close to being something more than the flavor of the month. PPP's newest polls find him with a double digit lead in Wisconsin, and running only a point behind Mitt Romney in Nevada.  This now makes 4 weeks in a row where Cain's been on the top of our polls- in 9 surveys we've conducted over that period of time he's held the lead in 8 with this Nevada poll serving as the only exception.

In Wisconsin Cain's at 30% to 18% for Romney, 12% each for Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, 8% for Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum, and 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson.

In Nevada Romney's at 29% to 28% for Cain, 15% for Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 6% for Perry, 3% for Bachmann, 2% for Santorum and Huntsman, and 0% for Johnson.


Cain's numbers continue to represent a huge amount of momentum. He's gained 21 points from late July in Nevada, when he was at 7%. And he's gained 23 points from mid-August in Wisconsin where he was also at 7%. It's the Tea Party that continues to drive Cain's support. He's up 37-19 on Romney with those voters in Nevada with Gingrich in second at 20%. And in Wisconsin he gets 37% with them as well with Gingrich at 17%, Perry at 12%, and Romney all the way back in a tie for 4th with Ron Paul at 8%.

One thing that does remain a problem for Cain is that his voters are not strongly committed- only 41% in Nevada say that they'll definitely vote for him, compared to 59% of Romney's supporters who say they're all in.  And in Wisconsin just 29% of his voters say they're firmly in his camp compared to 34% for Romney. Cain's support is broad at this point- but it's not deep.

Abercrombie least popular gov. in U.S., HI wants gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Move over, John Kasich.  Step aside, Rick Scott.  Take a hike, Scott Walker.  There is a new least popular governor in town, and he is a Democrat from one of the bluest states in the country, Hawaii.  Neil Abercrombie’s net approval rating has plummeted 33 points since PPP last polled the state in March, when he had a decent 48-41 spread.  That is now 30-56, nine points worse than the previous most hated governor on which PPP has polled this year, Ohio’s Kasich.

Abercrombie has slid across the board, but the costliest decline for him has been with his own party, which makes up almost half the state’s voters.  He has fallen 39 points with Democrats, from 66-23 to only 43-39.  He has also dropped 45 points with the sizeable 27% who claim to be independents, from breaking even at 45-44 to in the basement at 21-65.  Needless to say, Republicans pretty handily disapprove, 13-80, slightly worse than March’s 16-75.

Hawaii Miscellany

-Neil Abercrombie has assumed the dubious distinction of 'most unpopular Governor in the country' in PPP's polling.  Only 30% of voters now approve of him to 56% disapproving. That represents a 33 point decline in his net approval since March, when PPP found him at 48/41.

Independents (21/65) and Republicans (13/80) are both pretty universal in their disapproval of Abercrombie.  But what really sinks his numbers is that even Democrats barely approve of the job he's doing- 43% give him good marks while 39% dissent.

I think Abercrombie's issues might be part of the reason for Linda Lingle's image resurgence over the last six months. Folks who might have burned out on her by the end of her time in office may now be looking at her in comparison to their feelings about Abercrombie and coming to the conclusion that she wasn't so bad.

-Daniel Inouye, on the other hand, is a model of popularity. 62% of voters are happy with the job he's doing to only 23% who disapprove. That ties Inouye for the second most popular Senator in the country, measured by net approval, behind only John Barrasso of Wyoming. Inouye has near universal approval from Democrats, is very solid with independents at 53/31, and comes pretty close to break even with Republicans at 36/46.