Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio next month- PPP's newest poll of the state finds that voters intend to reject Senate Bill 5 by a 56-36 margin. Although that margin is consistent with what we found in the state earlier this year, when we polled Ohio in August the support for repealing SB 5 had tightened to 50-39. These numbers suggest that momentum is back on the side of the groups trying to kill the bill.
The preferences of Republicans and independents on Senate Bill 5 are mostly unchanged from two months ago. Independents are evenly divided on the issue, 46/46. And Republicans want to uphold it 61/30. But Democrats have unified in their support for repealing SB 5. In August they were only planning to overturn it by a 69/21 margin. Now that figure is 80/13. That increase in Democratic support for repeal may be indicative of voters becoming increasingly aware what the implications of a 'yes' and 'no' vote are on this somewhat complicated referendum.
The rejection of Senate Bill 5 would be a huge defeat for John Kasich, and Kasich continues to be the most unpopular Governor PPP has polled on anywhere in the country in 2011. Just 37% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. He has an unusually high number of Republicans disenchanted with him- 23%- and he attracts little crossover support from Democrats to make up for that, with only 10% of them approving of him. Independents split against him by a 49/43 margin as well.
Given Kasich's unpopularity it's no surprise that Ohio voters continue to feel significant buyer's remorse about their choice for Governor last year. If they could do it over again 54% of voters say they would pick Ted Strickland to only 40% who would stick with Kasich.
The news for Republicans on this poll isn't all bad though. By a 55-24 margin voters say if the election was today that they would support Issue 3, which is basically meant to counteract Barack Obama's health care plan. Republicans unsurprisingly support it by a 70-12 margin and so do independents, 58-21. More striking is that Democrats say right now that they'd vote for it 41-35. That may be a reflection of the extremely innocuous sounding ballot language- I doubt Democrats would support Issue 3 if they really understood what it was but there's some serious voter education to be done in the final 3 weeks of the campaign if the folks trying to defeat the amendment are going to be successful.
Finally the proposed Congressional redistricting lines for Ohio are getting bad reviews from the voters in the state who have an opinion about them, and people would like a chance to go to the polls and have their say on the matter. 40% are opposed to the new maps while only 26% support them and 34% have no opinion on this decidedly insider baseball issue. Independents split against the maps by a 47/27 margin and while 56% of Democrats are against them, only 39% of Republicans stand up in favor of them.
36% of voters think there should be a referendum on the Congressional lines to 28% opposed, with 36% again expressing no opinion. Democrats and independents want the issue put to a vote of the people, Republicans are opposed.
Full results here
Too much inconsistency in people's views. The fact that at least 15% of the Dems who want SB-5 rejected plan on voting for Cain against Obama tells you something very clear...the American public and especially those in Ohio have no clue as to what Cain stands for or dont care as far as policies and laws can be repealed....having your cake and eating it too! I personally think that referendums should be banned. If you make your bed you lie on it. If you vote for a guy like Kasich you live with the consequences until the next elections. If you vote for a guy like Cain you do the same. Referendums teaches the public complacency and irresponsibility...you are not held accountable for your actions because the public always knows it can repeal the consequences. Tough! If they vote for Cain, there are no federal referendums and some unsavory legislation (as far as the Dems are concerned) such as SB-5 can happen on a national scale and it cannot be repealed...of course it can be challenged through lawsuit but it will take ages to resolve!
Posted by: George | October 19, 2011 at 11:36 AM
They deserve to get the screwing they voted for in the first place. The 2010 elections were a disaster for the country all over with GOP clowns like Kasich, Scott, and Walker setting out to implement far Right ideology-driven plans to screw the lower and middle classes. Didn't know it was coming? Only if you didn't bother to think.
Had enough yet? Wait until you vote in Cain and his 9-9-9 plan. It's simple for simple folk too lazy to read it, but it will raise the taxes of over 80% of households according to one study including everyone making less than $100,000 while slicing the tax bill of the top 0.1% of income earners in half, and destroying Medicare and Social Security to boot. Its proponents claim it will generate a million jobs a month? Want to bet? That's would be the highest rate ever by far. Remember all the jobs Bush did not create despite his large tax cuts for the rich? Probably not.
Posted by: colincb | October 19, 2011 at 01:42 PM
I think it may be a mistake (esp. in Ohio?) to focus too much on "Independents", who are an amorphous and somewhat incoherent grab bag of very different sub-groups. They don't necessarily constitute a collective middle ground in terms of partisanship. Better to look at ideology.
And there the picture is stark and very revealing. Kasich and SB 5 have lost support in a huge way of both liberals and self-described moderates.
Posted by: smintheus | October 19, 2011 at 05:59 PM
Here is a link to information about Ohio Issue 2/Senate Bill 5: http://americansocietytoday.blogspot.com/2011/04/facts-on-ohio-senate-bill-5.html
Posted by: American Society Today | October 19, 2011 at 07:01 PM
From the release:
"PPP surveyed 581 Ohio voters from October 13th to 16th."
Can we assume that this sample is of "likely" voters? With the election only a month away, it would be reasonable to look at likely voters rather than registered voters.
Either way, the term "voters" is vague.
Posted by: Todd Dugdale | October 20, 2011 at 09:39 AM
This demonstrates what is wrong with this country.
"Labor" in Ohio, part of the industrial mid-west, now means schools teachers and other government bureaucrats, not factory workers.
School teachers working in a coercive government monopoly that spends more per student that almost any other country in the world, yet produces lousy results.
School teachers -- the only profession with the concept of "tenure", where they can't get fired no matter how much they fail our children.
Yes, we DO need a revolution in the country -- a revolution of parents and taxpayers against the rotten, evil government bureaucrat unions who are destroying our future.
Posted by: jwpegler | October 20, 2011 at 10:17 AM
"And there the picture is stark and very revealing. Kasich and SB 5 have lost support in a huge way of both liberals and self-described moderates."
...and many of the so called self-described moderates who are against SB-5 are planning to vote for Cain...good show! No sympathies from me!
Posted by: George | October 20, 2011 at 01:23 PM
"Can we assume that this sample is of "likely" voters?"
No, registered. We would've said "likely" if it were an LV sample. It wouldn't make sense to do the entire poll with an LV sample for this fall's election just for the one question on SB5. Most of the rest of the poll is either about 2012 or sports.
George, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from.
Posted by: Dustin Ingalls | October 20, 2011 at 01:47 PM