Obama unpopular in NC, still leads

Every month when we poll North Carolina right now we find the same thing: Barack Obama unpopular, but the Republican candidate field just as unpopular or even more.  That's allowing Obama to maintain small leads over his potential GOP foes, suggesting he should have a chance to win the state again in 2012.

44% of voters in the state approve of the job Obama is doing to 53% who disapprove.  Those numbers are pretty much identical to a month ago when his approval breakdown in the state was 43/53.  The same two issues continue to plague Obama.  He's very unpopular with independents (a 35/63 spread) and an unusually high 21% of Democrats are displeased with his performance.

Despite his own bad numbers Obama leads the Republican candidate field. He's up 46-45 on Mitt Romney, 46-43 on Ron Paul, 48-44 on Rick Perry, and 49-42 on both Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich. Obama did trail one Republican on our poll- Chris Christie by a 46/45 margin- but the New Jersey Governor of course announced this week that he would not be running for President.

To understand why Obama is so competitive in a state where his approval numbers are so poor all you need to do is look at the favorability numbers for the Republican hopefuls.  Romney is the most 'popular' at a -17 spread (32/49). It just gets worse from there- Bachmann is at -22 (30/52), Paul at -28 (24/52), Gingrich at -29 (29/58), and Perry at -32 (24/56).  If Republicans had any really strong candidate Obama would probably be looking doomed in the polls right now- but they don't and that's why he still appears to have a fighting chance for reelection.  The GOP field is Obama's greatest asset as he seeks a second term.

Perry's numbers have tanked in North Carolina compared to a month ago.  His net favorability has dropped 23 points from what was a 34/43 spread to its current level. Although that's pretty representative of the disintegration we're seeing in his image nationally his comments about eastern North Carolina barbecue probably aren't doing much to help his standing in the state.  75% of North Carolinians say they disagree with the statement that eastern North Carolina barbecue is worse than roadkill.  And although 52% say his barbecue opinions will have no impact on their vote next year- 40% say that they actually are less likely to vote for him because of what he said. What's surprising about those numbers is that there are almost as many Republicans- 36%- as there are Democrats- 46%- who say they're inclined against Perry because of that faux pas.

Overall 42% of North Carolinians say they prefer eastern style barbecue to 26% who go with western style.  North Carolina has been dealing with unprecedented levels of partisan polarization this year but on this Democrats (46/22 for eastern) and Republicans (40/30 for eastern) can agree. Maybe barbecue is the one thing that can bring our state together.  And back to the Perry issue- it's worth noting (or maybe nothing) that Perry leads Obama 52-38 with western style partisans but trails the President 50-44 with the aggrieved fans of eastern style barbecue.

Bottom line on North Carolina- I don't really think Obama can win the state next year if his approval numbers remain this poor but the weakness of the Republican field is keeping him in the game and if he can get back up into the 47% approval range or so he will have a pretty good chance at keeping the Tar Heel state in his column.

Full results here

Comments

[DianaRaes]

"Despite his own bad numbers Obama leads the Republican candidate field"

I don't see Herman Cain's name mentioned in this article? Last I saw he was one of the top 3 contenders? Wouldn't it be a good idea to see his numbers against Obama?

[RR]

I am a Romney guy, so I'm happy about Perry's fall in the polls, but this is just Democratic message testing here:

"Rick Perry has stated after eating eastern
North Carolina barbecue that, ‘I’ve had road kill
that tasted better than that.’ Do you agree or
disagree with his statement?"

I'm careful never to say your topline numbers are biased against GOP candidates, but questions like these -- along with the anti-Thompson question in Wisconsin -- do your firm a disservice.

[Obama 2012]

I think Obama will beat any non Romney Republican regardless of his approval ratings because the rest of the GOP field is so terrible that they will turn off voters in a huge way if they are the nominee... as people learn about them ... I just don't see the US electing someone like Rick Perry or Herman Cain to the Presidency.

Romney isn't a great candidate obviously - but he's palatable enough that Obama will probably need to improve his standing somewhat to beat him.

[dan higgins]

I wonder how Obama would fare against Huckabee in NC?

[Dustin Ingalls]

"I don't see Herman Cain's name mentioned in this article? Last I saw he was one of the top 3 contenders? Wouldn't it be a good idea to see his numbers against Obama?"

We base who we poll against Obama on who was leading in our primary polling in the previous month, and Cain was way back until we did this poll this past weekend. He's only now jumping back toward the top--in fact, as we showed earlier in the week, leading in NC, NE, and WV. Obviously we couldn't have foreseen the future. Cain had been at 7% or 8%.

"I wonder how Obama would fare against Huckabee in NC?"

Check our previous polls. Click on NC in the map and scroll back to May and before.

[1-20-2013]

For out countries sake, comeon NC! Don't repeat this mistake again!

[Sophie]

What I'm rather surprised at is that even Republicans strongly disagreed with Perry's statement. Generally we see some sort of 'rally around the politician' effect, in which they support a statement or idea just because a fellow party-member said it.

[Ranjit]

If it is Herman Cain, the dynamics will change so much with the demographics. If he even gets 5% more blacks than McCain, Obama has no chance of winning North Carolina

[Obama 2012]

I can't wait to see Cain included in the general election match-ups. I'm pretty confident he'll be getting crushed. He may appeal to the far right wing "look at my black friend" Tea Party loons but to everyone else he's obviously not even close to being Presidential material.

[Ken Puck]

You can't beat somebody with nobody, but the Republican nominee doesn't yet have a face or a name. "Generic Republican" signifies nothing. And it's tough for any politician to win when his negatives go over 50%.

[Dustin Ingalls]

"I can't wait to see Cain included in the general election match-ups."

We included him for quite awhile when he had a boomlet back in the spring, and he wasn't doing well even in his home state of Georgia.

[Ranjit]

Obama 2012,

We are the same party who elected Bobby Jindal in Louisiana and Nikki Haley in South Carolina. Last time,I checked they are not whites ! FYI---Obama's approval in Gallup today is 38%. When an incumbent is below 50%, they are in danger zone. At this approval rate, any republican candidate will win. Presidential material & Obama?? Lol!

[realnrh]

Herman Cain doesn't help Republicans win black voters any more than Sarah Palin helped Republicans win female voters. Republicans think that women, minorities, and younger voters will come over to the dark side if they see some token representation, but never stop to consider that just maybe their anti-minority, anti-woman, and anti-student rhetoric and ideology have long since solidified the Republican Party's place in those demographics as 'people who want to hurt us.'

[Armando]

"I can't wait to see Cain included in the general election match-ups. I'm pretty confident he'll be getting crushed. "

Meh. Intrade is currently putting the probability of Obama's relection at 47.1% (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474). Unless the economy starts growing at 7 or 8%, I wouldn't bet the farm on anybody at this point.

[Obama 2012]

Intrade blows with the wind.

Herman Cain is obviously not going to be President. If you can't figure that out, I don't want to say. The guy is a clown. No better than Palin.