Barack Obama won a blow out victory in Wisconsin in 2008, but it's looking more and more like it will revert to its swing state status of 2000 and 2004 next year.
Obama continues to be unpopular in Wisconsin with only 44% of voters approving of him to 51% who disapprove. It's yet another competitive state at the Presidential level where his standing with independents is abysmal- he's at 36/57 with them. In mid-May, shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden, Obama stood at 52/44 in the state. But he's dropped 15 points on the margin over the subsequent five months.
Mitt Romney has pulled to within 3 points of Obama at 46-43. That's the closest Romney's polled to Obama in PPP's polling of the state all year. In the first half of 2011 Obama had a double digit advantage over Romney, leading by 12 on a May poll and 10 on a March poll. There are 2 things causing Obama's increased difficulty- one is that he's gone from leading by 11 points with independents to trailing by 4 with them. And where he was once getting 9% from Republicans, that's now faded all the way down to 2%.
Obama has more comfortable leads over the rest of the Republican field, providing further confirmation that Romney is the only GOP hopeful who really has any hope of beaing Obama at this point. Herman Cain trails the President by 7 points, 49-42. Ron Paul is down 9 points, 48-39. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann both have an 11 point deficit, at 50-39 and 51-40 respectively. And Newt Gingrich polls the worst in the state, down 52-38.
This is another swing state where Rick Perry's favorability numbers are just atrocious. Only 20% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 59% with a negative one. That complements Nevada numbers we released yesterday showing Perry at 18/67. The worst thing that's happened to Barack Obama in the last few months is Perry's debate performances. When things were looking good for Perry, things were looking good for Obama.
Obama is still favored in Wisconsin- but it's clear 2012 will be a much tougher year for him there than 2008 was.
Full results here
This sounds right ! When incumbent has unfavorability above 50% and going closer to election, undecided and independent groups always move towards the challenger. Wisconsin with a republican governor, senator & state legislature has a great chance of flipping to republicans
Posted by: Ranjit | October 28, 2011 at 03:20 PM
We saw extreme polarization of the states in 2008, heavily on 'cultural' issues. A Republican ticket that chooses not to bait the more urban, secular, and cosmopolitan parts of America will do better than President Obama in the states that the President carried by 8%+ margins. Among such states are Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. President Obama maxed out in those states and started winning some voters who might vote Democratic once in a lifetime.
States that were close in 2008 will likely also be close in 2012.
It could be that states that the President fared catastrophically in in 2008 aren't going to change their ways much.
Posted by: pbrower2a | October 29, 2011 at 11:57 AM