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October 28, 2011


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This sounds right ! When incumbent has unfavorability above 50% and going closer to election, undecided and independent groups always move towards the challenger. Wisconsin with a republican governor, senator & state legislature has a great chance of flipping to republicans


We saw extreme polarization of the states in 2008, heavily on 'cultural' issues. A Republican ticket that chooses not to bait the more urban, secular, and cosmopolitan parts of America will do better than President Obama in the states that the President carried by 8%+ margins. Among such states are Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. President Obama maxed out in those states and started winning some voters who might vote Democratic once in a lifetime.

States that were close in 2008 will likely also be close in 2012.

It could be that states that the President fared catastrophically in in 2008 aren't going to change their ways much.

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