If Barack Obama had to stand for reelection today he would likely lose Ohio...as long as the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.
Obama's approval rating in the state is only 43%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. He's very unpopular with independents at 39/57, and even with Democrats his approval has dropped to a worrisome low of 73%. He's in particularly bad shape with white voters (37/57) and men (38/58).
A head to head between Obama and Romney would be a tie at this point, with each candidate getting 46%. Those numbers are worse for Obama than they appear to be on the surface though- just 18% of the undecided voters approve of the job he's doing. When those folks make up their minds they're not very likely to end up in Obama's camp. Romney has an 11 point advantage with independents and pulls 12% of the Democratic vote while losing only 4% of Republicans to Obama.
Also within striking range of Obama is Herman Cain, who trails the President only 48/45. Cain is the only one of the Republicans with a positive favorability rating in Ohio, at 41/37. Independents see him favorably by a 50/23 margin and 18% of Democrats with a positive opinion of him is higher than for any of the other GOP candidates. Cain's long term viability for the Republican nomination still seems questionable despite his current poll standing, but these numbers suggest that he might actually be a viable general election candidate.
The rest of the Republican field performs horribly against Obama. The President can only hope that Rick Perry has a resurgence and ends up winning the nomination. Perry has an atrocious 21/61 favorability rating and trails Obama by 9 points, 50/41. The last time a Republican managed to lose Ohio by that big a margin was Barry Goldwater in 1964. Obama is also up 8 points on Ron Paul at 48-40, 9 points on Michele Bachmann at 49-40, and 11 points on Newt Gingrich at 51-40.
With Obama's approval numbers what they are in Ohio he's lucky to still be in the game in the state, and the fact that he is is a testament to the weakness of the Republican candidate field. But as long as the GOP ends up going with its most viable candidate, Ohio is going to be a very tough hold for Obama next year.
Full results here
Poll shows Obama pulling only 79% of black vote with 5% undecided. 14% of "other" race also undecided. If black vote for Obama goes up to 90% and he picks up 30% white undecided, 35% other undecided and 85% black undecided he's just over 50%.
Seems more than plausible.
Posted by: Bud | October 20, 2011 at 12:48 PM
As I said earlier, it is very interesting that the clowns who are opposed to SB-5 will turn around and vote for Cain. This is the main reason I am against referendums. If you make your bed by voting for Kasich or Cain, you have to lie on it. You have to be held accountable for your own actions.
Posted by: George | October 20, 2011 at 01:21 PM
The problem I see in comparisons between Obama and any GOP candidate is that there is no predictive value in those comparisons until one GOP candidate is nominated and the conservative supporters then decide whether to unite and back that candidate or not. Until then, doing head to heads have no value whatsoever.
Posted by: Susan Duclos | October 20, 2011 at 01:56 PM
Sounds more like a tie than likely to lose scene. Meaning that it can go either way. Do polling and stop injecting your opinions please.
Posted by: jeff | October 20, 2011 at 02:33 PM
I think we should outlaw white men from voting. Imagine how much better the election results would be without white men included. And yes, I'm a white man myself... but I'll take one for the team.
Posted by: Obama 2012 | October 20, 2011 at 03:49 PM
When an incumbent is having unfavorability of more than 50% or when they are tied up with a challenger or even close to challenger within one or two points ahead, the incumbent will loose big time. Time and time,we have seen that undecided groups goes to the challenger and Ohio is part of industrial belt along with Pennsylvania to switch hands. If obama looses ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, I don't see how he can get relected
Posted by: Ranjit | October 20, 2011 at 06:50 PM
"If obama looses ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, I don't see how he can get relected"
If he only loses those three out of the states he won in 2008, he'll still get easily re-elected.
Posted by: Dustin Ingalls | October 20, 2011 at 10:13 PM
Lets ban white men from voting? Typically Democratic belief. Sorry they don't believe in socialism and for that reason vote Republican.
Posted by: Nobama2012 | October 21, 2011 at 03:16 PM