Barack Obama continues to suffer from the Nevada blues. Only 44% of voters there approve of him to 53% disapproving and he ties Mitt Romney in a state that he won by 12 points in 2008. Along with New Hampshire, Nevada is probably the swing state where Obama has fallen the furthest.
There are two main things causing Obama problems in the Silver State. He's under water with independents, at 42/53. And he's lost a lot of support with Democrats, only 78% of whom approve of him with 17% disapproving. He's also at 6/94 with Republicans, but that's pretty much par for the course. His hopes for any meaningful amount of crossover support faded a long time ago. While Obama's in good standing with Hispanics and African Americans in the state, he's at a woeful 36/61 with white voters, mirroring his trouble with them nationally.
As unpopular as Obama is, there's only one Republican who can catch up with him in the state and that's Mitt Romney. They tie at 46%. Romney has an unusual amount of appeal to Nevada Democrats- 27% of them have a favorable opinion of him and 13% say they would vote for him in a hypothetical match up with Obama. That's what sets him apart from the rest of the GOP field.
Obama leads the rest of the Republicans, but he doesn't match his 2008 margin of victory against any of them. He's up 49-46 against both Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, 47-43 against Ron Paul, and 49-41 against Michele Bachmann. Paul is actually the only one of the Republicans who leads Obama among independents, 45-43.
The Republican whose numbers really stand out in Nevada is Rick Perry. Only 18% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him, to 67% with a negative one. And he trails Obama by the widest margin, 51-41. Perry still seems to be thought as one of the two leading Republican candidates but when you see numbers like that it makes you wonder- is he really? At any rate the numbers here and in other swing states make it very clear that if Republicans want to have any hope they need to steer clear of Perry.
Nevada, along with Virginia, looks like it could be one of those states that's really at the epicenter of the political universe next year with both a Presidential race and a Senate race that for the moment look very much like toss ups.
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