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October 20, 2011

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Jason Miller

Why the oversampling of Democrats? This poll has a spread of D-47, R-37. That's even more generous than 2008 the most D spread every which was 39-31 D. I predict the 2012 electorate might be more like 2006 which was 40-37 D or even closer to a split like 2010.

Dustin Ingalls

We don't weight for party ID, which fluctuates over time, depending on who's planning to vote and what the political atmosphere is. There's also a difference between exit polls and pre-election surveys, and a difference between party registration and party ID. Some may be registered unaffiliated but identify as Ds or Rs when asked.

Having said that, 2012 being a presidential year will almost certainly mean an electorate closer to 2008 than 2010, that is for sure.

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